Ice Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, December 15, 2021
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There is the risk of freezing rain through parts of Eastern and Central Ontario starting early Wednesday afternoon. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a Special Weather Statemate and will likely be upgraded to a Freezing Rain Warning by morning. As a result, we will likely see some bus cancellations in the morning in advance of the expected freezing rain. The best chance of an ‘ice day’ will exist through parts of North Bay and into Petawawa/Renfrew where the school boards tend to be more sensitive when it comes to weather alerts from Environment Canada. So we’ve given them a 75% chance of seeing bus cancellations.
As this event will occur in the afternoon, it will depend on school boards being proactive with the cancellations in the morning. So our forecast might not make much sense since Ottawa will see similar impacts as North Bay. However, we’ve factored in the history of each region into our forecast as it will be a subjective decision. We also considered the proportion of the region that is expected to see freezing rain as cancellations are often made at a county level. So for example, we have a 25% chance for the entire region of Muskoka as cancellations are generally made for the entire region even though only Huntsville is expecting any freezing rain. With this forecast, we’re more predicting human behaviour rather than weather conditions which is quite difficult to do. Keep in mind that confidence in this forecast is low - it’s possible we don’t see any cancellations on Wednesday.
If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.
