First Multi-Day Winter Storm of the Season Could Bring Up to 20-30cm of Snow to Parts of Northeastern Ontario Starting Monday
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Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time with giving a taste of wintery weather this week across parts of Northern Ontario. The calendar might still say October, but the next few days will feel like we skipped a whole month right into late November. While most parts of Northern Ontario have already seen the season's first flakes, we are watching a multi-day system that could bring accumulating snowfall to a wide swath of Northeastern Ontario. The snow will start for some on Monday and continue on and off with multiple waves over through Tuesday and into Wednesday with total accumulation over the three days adding up to 20-30cm in the hardest hit areas.
A low-pressure system is expected to stall over the Great Lakes starting Monday which will provide a steady stream of precipitation across Northern and Southern Ontario over the next few days. In addition to the multiple waves of precipitation, some colder air will flow in from the west starting Monday dropping temperatures to near or slightly below the freezing mark through Northern Ontario. With temperatures near the freezing mark, it is likely that precipitation will come down in the form of wet snow for the Kapuskasing and Chapleau region starting as early as Monday afternoon.
It’s important to note that this is very temperature dependent which will affect exactly how much snow a particular region receives on the ground. The precipitation may also change back to a rain/snow mix during the day on Tuesday as temperatures warm up slightly before going back below the freezing mark. Not to mention that the ground is still fairly warm so it may take some time before the snow starts accumulating and thus reducing actual accumulation. So this forecast isn’t saying that a particular location will have 20-30cm of snow on the ground by Wednesday, but rather that total snowfall over the three days will add up to that and it’s hard to say exactly how much will melt.
Snow will come in multiple waves with the heaviest snow expected Tuesday afternoon and lingering into Wednesday morning. The snow should taper off by the middle of the day on Wednesday, but scattered flurries may continue into Thursday. Those closer to the Quebec border and up around James Bay will see slightly warmer temperatures so precipitation will come in the form of rain for the most part. However, a few hours of heavy snow is possible late Tuesday into Wednesday as the colder air finally spreads further east.
As this system extends multiple days, it’s possible that the forecast may change as we get closer and see how the first part of the precipitation develops. We will be monitoring the latest data and updating our forecast with a more precise expected snowfall accumulation map by Monday. As we’ve mentioned throughout the forecast, the confidence in this event is low as is typical with the season’s first major snowfall. So be aware that changes are likely with our final forecast.
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