Evening and Overnight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (Friday, May 20th, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

As previously mentioned, this forecast has been quite challenging. When there is an environment this strong (moisture + heat + wind shear) but a general lack of expected storms, it’s always a big question mark regarding if storms could potentially pop-up earlier than expected. Nevertheless, we’ve been over so many models and observations and we feel that our map, with a slight modification from yesterday’s preliminary forecast, which now extends the severe risk further into northeastern Ontario, should cover all the possibilities.

Several models are continuing to suggest the storms will arrive late and not be as significant. However, a few others suggest the storms roll into the Bruce Peninsula and the northern side of Lake Huron into areas around Sauble Beach around 7-8pm. If the storms arrive early, they’re going to likely be quite severe and could cause significant damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding, intense lightning, and perhaps even a tornado or two are possible. If the storms arrive around later into the evening, they won’t have as much of an opportunity to take advantage of the significant supercell environment that is already strengthening across much of southern, central and northeastern Ontario. However, severe storms are still possible overnight as they track into Muskoka and northeastern Ontario.

So far, areas like the Bruce Peninsula, the north side of Lake Huron, through the Georgian Bay regions and into parts of Muskoka and northeastern Ontario seem to be where the strongest nocturnal storms should arrive. 

The later they arrive, the less chance they have of producing significant severe weather.

We continue to hope that they arrive as late as possible and the outcome is simply a noisy/windy/rainy evening for some. *Fingers continued to be crossed* 🤞

There will also be the chance for thunderstorms on Saturday morning, potentially around the Hamilton area and there is some potential they could be severe.

More details ASAP!