MANITOBA: Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon and Evening (Sunday, May 29, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

We’re carefully watching for the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Manitoba. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms will first develop and how late they may arrive. However, the latest model data is suggesting the strongest isolated storms will begin in the west part of the risk region this afternoon and track east throughout the evening. The main risks will be damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning. There is also the potential for tornado activity, especially close to the international border. However, the tornado risk may have the potential to extend further north as highlighted by the dotted orange areas, depending on where the strongest storms develop and how earlier they arrive. The earlier they arrive, the better chance they have of being severe and potentially producing isolated tornadoes, etc.

Environment Canada has also issued a forecast map for these risks:

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

In their forecast, Environment Canada writes: “… potential for severe thunderstorm development. Large hail, heavy rain, and the slight chance for a tornado are all possible. However, a strong mid level capping inversion may hinder thunderstorm development until much later in the evening, once the cap erodes. As such, confidence is low for any organized storm development, but any storms that do pop up will likely be severe in nature.”

As always, if we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

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More details ASAP.