Overnight & Early Morning Severe Thunderstorm Potential & Discussing Thursday's Significant Severe Weather Risk (Mon, June 13, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

TONIGHT & TOMORROW MORNING (Mon, June 13 - Tue, June 14, 2022): An overnight line or cluster of severe thunderstorms is likely this evening and early Tuesday morning in deep southwestern Ontario most likely starting sometime after 8pm or even later in the evening. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong the wind gusts could get because the overall severe weather environment is basically non-existent on our side of the international border. However, we’re dealing with a possible “bow-echo” or perhaps even a strong MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex). When storms reach “bow-echo” or even MCV status, they have the ability to create their own environment for severe weather and because of this, even with a non-existent severe weather environment expected from the models on our side of the border, we could end up seeing some isolated severe wind gusts in deep southwestern Ontario.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning are the main risks. Regarding the tornado potential, with such a weak environment in Ontario, tornadoes are much more likely south of the border than in our own backyard. Having said that, if this storm does in fact become not only a “bow-echo” but reaches strong MCV status, a brief QLCS tornado isn’t entirely out of the question in Essex County, Chatham-Kent regions, etc. Ultimately, we feel the tornado risk is unlikely so we’re keeping the tornado potential off of our forecast map at this time.

THURSDAY: (Thursday, June 16th): We’ve been closely watching models for more than a week as they’ve consistently demonstrated the potential for an enhanced or potentially significant severe weather environment on Wednesday and Thursday. So far, it seems like there are no organized storms expected on Wednesday and this is a good thing because the environment is extremely volatile. As long as no storms show up on Wednesday, there should be no severe weather risk. If a storm shows up out of nowhere on Wednesday, then we’ve got issues (this seems unlikely, so far). However, Thursday looks quite impressive on the models and we could be dealing with a widespread squall line with the main risks looking like they’ll be east of Lake Simcoe into Eastern Ontario. There is also the potential for severe storms in the GTHA and Niagara. However, at this point, southwestern Ontario doesn’t seem to have a risk for storm development. Having said this, we’re 4 days out so this could shift. We’ll be watching very closely for this risk and trying to pinpoint it over the next few days.

As always, if we see any significant wind gusts or rotation on radar for any of these events, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP!