THURSDAY: Risk of Significant Severe Thunderstorms & Tornadoes (Thu, June 16, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

THURSDAY (June 16, 2022): After careful consideration and even with several models weakening, we’ve decided there is enough models and data to suggest a significant risk is still possible so we’re going to keep our risk map the same as our preliminary map. As we’ve been discussing for several days, today will have a very potent severe weather environment and several models continue to suggest we could see a widespread severe weather event with significant damaging wind gusts 90-120km/h+, damaging hail 2-5cm, flooding, intense lightning, and there is a risk for several strong tornadoes.

We’ve highlighted parts of southwestern Ontario in yellow (2) just incase something pops-up down there and that seems more possible now that there are storms approaching Essex County from Michigan this morning. They may weaken though so we’ll have to watch closely. The main risk is in the red (4) and perhaps orange (3) regions. Storms should begin developing between 9am and 2pm and storms will continue to track to the east into parts of eastern Ontario through the afternoon and into the evening hours as they exit into Quebec and the US.

Today might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc. We’ll certainly be livestreaming today!

More details ASAP and be safe today, folks! Here’s hoping the weaker models are correct and this forecast is a “bust”.