THURSDAY: NTP & Environment Canada Both Forecasting a Tornado Risk for Tomorrow (Thu, June 16, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) based out of Western University, which is responsible for confirming tornadoes across the country in collaboration with Environment Canada has highlighted a ‘Likely Tornado’ region in parts of eastern Ontario, highlighted in orange which includes the Algonquin Park region in their experimental forecast map. They’ve also highlighted a “Chance Tornado” region, outlined in yellow that extends as far west as Lake Simcoe and parts of the GTA. The NTP writes: “Likely Tornado risk has been identified for portions of Southeastern Ontario and Southwestern Quebec in association with a migrating low pressure system. This is embedded in a broader area of Chance Tornado.”

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

Environment Canada has also released a forecast map that mentions the risk for 90-110km/h wind gusts, 2-4cm hail, 30-50mm and “For portions of central Ontario as well as eastern Ontario, a tornado or two is possible.” Here is their full write-up:

Location: Most of southern Ontario.

Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings, break branches off trees and overturn large vehicles. Large hail can damage property and cause injury.

Confidence: Low to medium.

Description: Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts to 110 km/h and large hail to 4 cm are the main hazards expected with these storms. For portions of central Ontario as well as eastern Ontario, a tornado or two is possible. There is timing uncertainty which may affect the locations impacted and hazards as this event draws nearer.

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

And if you have not seen our preliminary forecast map (subject to change), we’ve been discussing the risk for severe weather on Thursday for several days. Tomorrow will have a very potent severe weather environment and models continue to suggest we could see a widespread severe weather event with significant damaging wind gusts 90-120km/h+, damaging hail 2-5cm, flooding, intense lightning, and there is a risk for several strong tornadoes.

We’ve highlighted parts of southwestern Ontario in yellow (2) just incase something pops-up down there but at this point, the main risk is in the red (4) and perhaps orange (3) regions. Storms should begin developing between 11am and 2pm and storms will continue to track to the east into parts of eastern Ontario through the afternoon and into the evening hours as they exit into Quebec and the US.

Of course, timing and locations could change and we continue to work on our final forecast map, which will be released later this evening. However, this event has been trending now for several days and has remained fairly consistent.

Wednesday or Thursday might be a good time to download our free app Instant Weather on Apple or Android or subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts. We send out Environment Canada alerts instantly and also our own Instant Updates™ for rotation, tornado reports, damage reports, violent wind gusts, severe weather forecasts, livestream notifications, etc.

More details ASAP!