Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Afternoon, Evening & Overnight (Fri, July 1st, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which might be easier to read due to the small labels. If you prefer our old city label format, we have included that further down this article.

Today & Tonight (Fri, July 1st, 2022): We’re closely watching for the isolated risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. By “isolated”, we mean that most of the region will NOT see severe thunderstorms. Additionally, model data seems to be all over the place with every model having a slightly different solution. For example, a few models are suggesting a tornado risk in the Ottawa region and many other models are suggesting there will be no storms there at all. It has been a very difficult forecast, indeed. One consistent part of the forecast has been the risk for severe thunderstorms in southwestern Ontario, potentially this afternoon but more likely this evening.

Southwestern Ontario: The southwest risk will be this afternoon and evening but the overnight should be clear for this part of the region. Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and a risk for flooding. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out in this region as well.

GTHA/Niagara: It’s mainly a late evening and overnight risk for the GTHA and Niagara regions. Most storms should remain non-severe but there is a low risk for isolated damaging wind gusts, lightning, and an isolated flooding risk. Tornadoes seem unlikely for this part of the region in the evening and overnight hours.

Eastern Ontario: Eastern Ontario remains questionable but if storms do show up, they’ll have the chance to get quite severe and a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. The main risks are damaging wind gusts, large hail, frequent lightning, and flooding. Again, this is IF storms show up. It’s still uncertain at this time.

In general, damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding, and frequent lightning are the main risks. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out with the strongest storms that occur, especially in deep southwestern Ontario and eastern Ontario. However, like we mentioned above, the majority of models are suggesting that eastern Ontario could be missed by the strongest storms and the risk will be entirely in Quebec. And so, we wait and we watch closely!

If we see any rotation on radar, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

Just want to say a huge thank you to all those who share our updates and support our team and community! It really makes a huge difference. Thank you and be safe if you’re in the path of today’s storms!

More details ASAP.