Early Morning & Afternoon/Evening Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential (Tue, July 5, 2022)

NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.

EARLY MORNING RISK: (Tues, July 5th, 2022): An overnight line or cluster of severe thunderstorms is likely to affect parts of southwestern Ontario and eventually into the Niagara regions (and perhaps GTHA) early this morning. 2am - 11am seems to be the timeframe with areas like Windsor and Essex County seeing storms as early as perhaps even 1am and Niagara seeing storms as late as 11am. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong the wind gusts could get because the overall severe weather environment is fairly tame on our side of the international border. However, we’re dealing with a possible “bow-echo” or perhaps even a strong MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). When storms reach “bow-echo” or even MCS status, they have the ability to create their own environment for severe weather and because of this, even with a fairly weak severe weather environment expected from the models on our side of the border, we could end up seeing some isolated severe wind gusts in deep southwestern Ontario.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated flooding and frequent lightning are the main risks. Regarding the tornado potential, with such a weak environment in Ontario, tornadoes are much more likely south of the border than in our own backyard. Having said that, if this storm does in fact become not only a “bow-echo” but reaches strong MCS status, a brief QLCS tornado isn’t entirely out of the question in Essex County, Chatham-Kent regions, etc. Ultimately, we feel the tornado risk is unlikely so we’re keeping the tornado potential off of our forecast map at this time.

AFTERNOON & EVENING RISK (Tues, July 5th, 2022): There is also some potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the same highlighted areas of southwestern Ontario, into the Niagara regions, and potentially parts of the GTHA. Damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding, and frequent lightning are the main risks. An isolated tornado can also not be entirely ruled out if strong storms develop this afternoon and evening but overall, the risk is quite low and we’re leaning towards unlikely regarding tornado development.

Regardless, if we see any significant wind gusts or rotation on radar for any of these events, we will do our best to notify all those who have our free app Instant Weather and who subscribe to our premium Text Message Alerts as well as through Facebook, Twitter, etc.

More details ASAP!