Flash Flooding Rains and Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts With Near Record High Temperatures to Roll in the Month of December

Issued: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Updated: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good mild morning on this 1st December day! Wow, can you believe it, already in December, seems time went fast, but it sure doesn’t feel like it, we didn’t have much of a fall so far.

It may be the first of December, but we are on storm watch as a large slow-moving storm is going to unleash Widespread flooding rains and Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

So far this morning, wind gusts have reached over 90 km/h, in Brier Island at 91 km/h. Yarmouth and many other areas have already climbed to 78 km/h. These winds will continue to rise as the day and night go on.

It will be Wednesday morning by the time we start to see some clearing, and even then we’re going to see more showers and periods of rain arrive Wednesday Night into Thursday. By the time it is all said and done, many areas of the South coast can see as much as 140 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere in the province, there are amounts of 30-50mm and as much as 75mm closer to Halifax.

We will get to the Forecast rainfall in just a little bit, but first, we will go through the power outages.

High winds this morning have been disrupting powerline wires and bringing some trees down. as of this morning at 4:30 AM, there are 6 active power outages with 4,275 customers without power this morning.

There are fewer than 5 customers in the dark this morning near Kemptville. Clarence East has also fewer than 5 customers in the dark. The number of customers without power goes much higher as we get towards Kentville, where over 4,220 customers are without power this morning and in Seabright this morning, there are 52 customers without power. ETA times for everyone are set for 8 AM as of right now, and all are caused by high winds.

We already have power outages in the province this morning, but lets look at the probability of them! Yarmouth, Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool all have possible outages, which of course is already occurring, but this is for Today and tonight and through Thursday.

From Greenwood to Antigonish, there is a slight chance for more of a isolated outages. We already have large power outages in near Kentville this morning.

The reason for power outages is due to high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Speaking of rainfall, let’s get to the timing of this system!

For this morning, we are looking at very heavy rainfall for Yarmouth through Digby, this is where the rainfall rates at times can exceed 15-20mm/hr! From Shelburne to Truro and near Amherst, heavy rain will slowly move in and some moderate to light rain for remainder of the province.

As we get towards the Afternoon hours through the evening hours, this is when we see the very heavy extreme rainfall that will create some flooding problems and flash floods. Rainfall rates at times will exceed 30mm/hr. Heavy rain spreads as far as Halifax, Light to Moderate rain continues for Northern parts of the province.

even through the overnight hours we will continue to see flooding extreme rainfall amounts. as much as 25 to 45 mm/hr rain rates are possible leading to a high threat for flash flooding and rising water levels in the rivers.

By Wednesday morning, we will have seen the heaviest rain move out, however Heavy rain will continue to fall in the southern sections. and light to moderate for much of the rest of the province.

As the system slowly moves away, we’ll see clearing conditions for the late day hours in the south, some light rain and drizzle sticking around. all that heavy rain moves north impacting Halifax to Amherst and Truro. Moderate rain towards Antigonish and still light rain over Cape Breton.

By Evening and overnight Wednesday, another round of rain, mostly moderate will swing back in the southern portions of the province from Greenwood to Yarmouth. and some remaining left over showers over Northern and Cape Breton.

So how much rainfall can we expect?

This is one of the Canadian models we use, the RGEM, goes out towards 4 days. This model suggests that as much as 140mm will fall in Yarmouth with up to 100 mm in Digby and rest of the south shores. 40 to 80 mm from Halifax North and South. Then once we get towards northern portions of the province, we see rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 mm.

This is our North American Model, or “NAM” The Nam model shows that by Thursday evening, upwards of 80-90 mm can fall. with Northern parts of the province seeing only 10-20mm, except for Cape Breton where 20 to 30 mm still would fall.

One of the Ensemble weather models the ARW models, shows that up to 80 mm by Thursday evening, and up to 25 mm for Central then a lot for Cape Breton with as much as near 50 mm.

WRF ARW model ensemble showing 70-90 mm with up to 50 for central, and 20 to 40 mm over Northern and Cape Breton.

The king of models the ECMWF is suggesting also a good 60-80mm of rainfall. and much lesser amounts North.

then we have the GFS, Global Forecast System. The GFS has over 100 mm of rainfall

Lastly we have the ICON model, this shows a good 100+ mm for the south. So basically the models are split on decision of rainfall forecast.

Up to 140+mm of rain is possible!! otherwise looking at a wide swath of 75 to 125 mm! or 3-5”, could see some areas maybe getting 6” of rain! For Greenwood, Kentville, Halifax, Truro, and Amherst… look for 40 to 75 mm of rainfall by Thursday. Elsewhere in province, look for 15 to 30 mm.

Most of the highest rainfall projections are likely cause of the probability of thunderstorms!!! Risk of thunderstorms through Thursday, A light Isolated risk of severe risk thunderstorms in Yarmouth where some strong wind gusts, and pea size hail and very torrential flash flooding rains can be expected in those storms. Otherwise, a non-severe risk of storms all the way up towards Amherst.

Along with the rain is also the very high winds. because of the center of the low, the highest winds will be on the coast from Yarmouth to Digby where winds could occasionally gusts up to 105 km/h. We already seen gusts up to 91 km/h this morning in Brier Island. For everyone else, winds gusting of 70 to 80 km/h is expected.

For the month of December on the first day, it sure does not feel like it! in fact as of right now, we have temperatures as warm as 15 degrees this early morning.

Temperatures will be in the 15 to 20 range, and I do think some folks MAYBE will flirt with 20-degrees! If it does happen, it will be inland mainland areas near Kentville and Greenwood. Highs there nearing 17 or 18 is very likely.

For Cape Breton, southern parts will see up to 15 degrees, while the north stays cool with highs near 10.

Let’s take a look at the Southern Regional Forecast!

For Yarmouth, looking at some very heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, warm! 15 degrees, still mild tomorrow with more rain and showers, some clearing in the afternoon. cooler but mild! highs of 9, cloudy, drizzly and misty and cool! on Thursday highs only getting up to 6, which is only 1 degree above average. 9 on Friday under sun & clouds and 8 on Saturday with more showers! So staying fairly mild for 1st week of December! and also very wet.

For Digby, Flooding rain and thunderstorms today, 15 degrees, 9 tomorrow with sun and clouds, chance of showers on Thursday and chilly with highs of 5. 8 Saturday with sun and clouds and 6 on for Saturday with a chance of showers returning.

For Shelburne, Heavy flooding rains and embedded storms today, highs of 14. Cloudy and misty tomorrow and Thursday. highs of 9 tomorrow and 6 on Thursday. 10 on Friday with sun and cloud and 8 on Saturday with more showers.

And lastly for Queens! 13 today under heavy rainfall and gusty winds. showers tomorrow, and Thursday. 9 tomorrow, 6 on Thursday. back up to 10 Friday with sun and clouds, return to misty conditions on Saturday and 8-degrees.

Here is your Halifax 7-day Forecast!

Temperature wise…. for the first week of December it is not so bad! but it is going to be very wet and unsettled this week.

Rain today at times heavy and Gusty winds of up to 80 km/h. rainfall amounts as much as 75 mm by Thursday evening. Highs of 15

Tomorrow, still mild! 14 with more rain and wind.

we cool down on Thursday with more showers and sprinkles, remaining breezy. Highs only at 7

10 on Friday with sunny breaks returning.

Saturday is showery and mild. 8-degrees

Sunday is at 13! with another storm system possibly!! this one will need to be watched as the track is a bit close, and will be tapping into cold air, so we could be seeing a messy winter storm or a rain storm. but as of now, a chance of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Monday, Rain turns to snow! windy and turning MUCH colder! we go from 13 on Sunday to -2 on Monday, start the day at near freezing then temperatures will fall during the day. plan on wind chills into the -5’s to -10’s!

Flash Flooding Rains and Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts With Near-Record High Temperatures to Roll in the Month of December

Issued: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Updated: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good mild morning on this 1st December day! Wow, can you believe it, already in December, seems time went fast, but it sure doesn’t feel like it, we didn’t have much of a fall so far.

It may be the first of December, but we are on storm watch as a large slow-moving storm is going to unleash Widespread flooding rains and Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

So far this morning, wind gusts have reached over 90 km/h, in Brier Island at 91 km/h. Yarmouth and many other areas have already climbed to 78 km/h. These winds will continue to rise as the day and night go on.

It will be Wednesday morning by the time we start to see some clearing, and even then we’re going to see more showers and periods of rain arrive Wednesday Night into Thursday. By the time it is all said and done, many areas of the South coast can see as much as 140 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere in the province, there are amounts of 30-50mm and as much as 75mm closer to Halifax.

We will get to the Forecast rainfall in just a little bit, but first, we will go through the power outages.

High winds this morning have been disrupting powerline wires and bringing some trees down. as of this morning at 4:30 AM, there are 6 active power outages with 4,275 customers without power this morning.

There are fewer than 5 customers in the dark this morning near Kemptville. Clarence East has also fewer than 5 customers in the dark. The number of customers without power goes much higher as we get towards Kentville, where over 4,220 customers are without power this morning and in Seabright this morning, there are 52 customers without power. ETA times for everyone are set for 8 AM as of right now, and all are caused by high winds.

We already have power outages in the province this morning, but lets look at the probability of them! Yarmouth, Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool all have possible outages, which of course is already occurring, but this is for Today and tonight and through Thursday.

From Greenwood to Antigonish, there is a slight chance for more of a isolated outages. We already have large power outages in near Kentville this morning.

The reason for power outages is due to high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Speaking of rainfall, let’s get to the timing of this system!

For this morning, we are looking at very heavy rainfall for Yarmouth through Digby, this is where the rainfall rates at times can exceed 15-20mm/hr! From Shelburne to Truro and near Amherst, heavy rain will slowly move in and some moderate to light rain for remainder of the province.

As we get towards the Afternoon hours through the evening hours, this is when we see the very heavy extreme rainfall that will create some flooding problems and flash floods. Rainfall rates at times will exceed 30mm/hr. Heavy rain spreads as far as Halifax, Light to Moderate rain continues for Northern parts of the province.

even through the overnight hours we will continue to see flooding extreme rainfall amounts. as much as 25 to 45 mm/hr rain rates are possible leading to a high threat for flash flooding and rising water levels in the rivers.

By Wednesday morning, we will have seen the heaviest rain move out, however Heavy rain will continue to fall in the southern sections. and light to moderate for much of the rest of the province.

As the system slowly moves away, we’ll see clearing conditions for the late day hours in the south, some light rain and drizzle sticking around. all that heavy rain moves north impacting Halifax to Amherst and Truro. Moderate rain towards Antigonish and still light rain over Cape Breton.

By Evening and overnight Wednesday, another round of rain, mostly moderate will swing back in the southern portions of the province from Greenwood to Yarmouth. and some remaining left over showers over Northern and Cape Breton.

So how much rainfall can we expect?

This is one of the Canadian models we use, the RGEM, goes out towards 4 days. This model suggests that as much as 140mm will fall in Yarmouth with up to 100 mm in Digby and rest of the south shores. 40 to 80 mm from Halifax North and South. Then once we get towards northern portions of the province, we see rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 mm.

This is our North American Model, or “NAM” The Nam model shows that by Thursday evening, upwards of 80-90 mm can fall. with Northern parts of the province seeing only 10-20mm, except for Cape Breton where 20 to 30 mm still would fall.

One of the Ensemble weather models the ARW models, shows that up to 80 mm by Thursday evening, and up to 25 mm for Central then a lot for Cape Breton with as much as near 50 mm.

WRF ARW model ensemble showing 70-90 mm with up to 50 for central, and 20 to 40 mm over Northern and Cape Breton.

The king of models the ECMWF is suggesting also a good 60-80mm of rainfall. and much lesser amounts North.

then we have the GFS, Global Forecast System. The GFS has over 100 mm of rainfall

Lastly we have the ICON model, this shows a good 100+ mm for the south. So basically the models are split on decision of rainfall forecast.

Up to 140+mm of rain is possible!! otherwise looking at a wide swath of 75 to 125 mm! or 3-5”, could see some areas maybe getting 6” of rain! For Greenwood, Kentville, Halifax, Truro, and Amherst… look for 40 to 75 mm of rainfall by Thursday. Elsewhere in province, look for 15 to 30 mm.

Most of the highest rainfall projections are likely cause of the probability of thunderstorms!!! Risk of thunderstorms through Thursday, A light Isolated risk of severe risk thunderstorms in Yarmouth where some strong wind gusts, and pea size hail and very torrential flash flooding rains can be expected in those storms. Otherwise, a non-severe risk of storms all the way up towards Amherst.

Along with the rain is also the very high winds. because of the center of the low, the highest winds will be on the coast from Yarmouth to Digby where winds could occasionally gusts up to 105 km/h. We already seen gusts up to 91 km/h this morning in Brier Island. For everyone else, winds gusting of 70 to 80 km/h is expected.

For the month of December on the first day, it sure does not feel like it! in fact as of right now, we have temperatures as warm as 15 degrees this early morning.

Temperatures will be in the 15 to 20 range, and I do think some folks MAYBE will flirt with 20-degrees! If it does happen, it will be inland mainland areas near Kentville and Greenwood. Highs there nearing 17 or 18 is very likely.

For Cape Breton, southern parts will see up to 15 degrees, while the north stays cool with highs near 10.

Let’s take a look at the Southern Regional Forecast!

For Yarmouth, looking at some very heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, warm! 15 degrees, still mild tomorrow with more rain and showers, some clearing in the afternoon. cooler but mild! highs of 9, cloudy, drizzly and misty and cool! on Thursday highs only getting up to 6, which is only 1 degree above average. 9 on Friday under sun & clouds and 8 on Saturday with more showers! So staying fairly mild for 1st week of December! and also very wet.

For Digby, Flooding rain and thunderstorms today, 15 degrees, 9 tomorrow with sun and clouds, chance of showers on Thursday and chilly with highs of 5. 8 Saturday with sun and clouds and 6 on for Saturday with a chance of showers returning.

For Shelburne, Heavy flooding rains and embedded storms today, highs of 14. Cloudy and misty tomorrow and Thursday. highs of 9 tomorrow and 6 on Thursday. 10 on Friday with sun and cloud and 8 on Saturday with more showers.

And lastly for Queens! 13 today under heavy rainfall and gusty winds. showers tomorrow, and Thursday. 9 tomorrow, 6 on Thursday. back up to 10 Friday with sun and clouds, return to misty conditions on Saturday and 8-degrees.

Here is your Halifax 7-day Forecast!

Temperature wise…. for the first week of December it is not so bad! but it is going to be very wet and unsettled this week.

Rain today at times heavy and Gusty winds of up to 80 km/h. rainfall amounts as much as 75 mm by Thursday evening. Highs of 15

Tomorrow, still mild! 14 with more rain and wind.

we cool down on Thursday with more showers and sprinkles, remaining breezy. Highs only at 7

10 on Friday with sunny breaks returning.

Saturday is showery and mild. 8-degrees

Sunday is at 13! with another storm system possibly!! this one will need to be watched as the track is a bit close, and will be tapping into cold air, so we could be seeing a messy winter storm or a rain storm. but as of now, a chance of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Monday, Rain turns to snow! windy and turning MUCH colder! we go from 13 on Sunday to -2 on Monday, start the day at near freezing then temperatures will fall during the day. plan on wind chills into the -5’s to -10’s!

The Monster Mash!! Thundery cold rain & Hurricane force winds to massive blizzard conditions in the Mountains

Issued: October 13, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Valid: October 13, 2020 @ 5 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Gooooooood Tuesday morning British Columbians!! Hope you all had a great and happy Thanksgiving and it not to full for more turkey sandwiches ;)

We have a lot of weather to talk about today, we’ll start with our Severe Weather Alert!

We’ll go first to the radar, where we are tracking some heavy rain & thunderstorms over the Vancouver Island area.

We are tracking several thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rain to start the early Tuesday morning. A lot of the storms are heading to the North and North East towards Vancouver and Victoria. The rain will pick up through the day today and then begin to taper off by the evening hours with scattered showers still coming down.

As we zoom out of the ready for a closer look at rest of Vancouver areas, Lot’s of rain to our South and East, both of those directions is where our winds will be coming from and where the moisture will come from, So plan on a mostly all day washout.

Taking a look at the latest current Satellite Infrared Imagery with Front & MSLP progs programmed in,

We have a very large low-pressure system just off the coast near Haidi Gwaii that will track towards Port Hardy later today as the system strengthens even more, and as it does so it will increase the winds later this afternoon. Winds will become at it’s worst later this afternoon into tonight.

Meanwhile, elsewhere there is lots of nice weather as high pressure in the big boss!

With the Tops Super HD Satellite Imagery, you can picture out where the storm is, a huge wall of cold cloud tops, which means high cloud tops and the colder it is the more intense the system, and the colder it gets the more it intensifies. Currently, we have cloud tops as cold as near -60*C.

As well, the circulation of the low, and where the center is, with the swirl of clouds. You can get a better look however by looking at the Water Vapour Satellite Imagery. This tells us how much moisture is in the clouds. The darker the color, the higher the moisture, the good chance you will see some precipitation falling or even some very heavy moisture.

With systems like these, drier air wraps around the low to the South and East, and this is just like the other cases. Lot’s of moisture wraps around from the SE then a dry air on the back side. Where there is dry air, expect some breaks in the rain and clouds.

We have a warm front that will pass through first bringing us rain, and storms, then behind it we have a cold front, that will swing through later today and tonight to ramp up the winds. Then we’ll have a few good days as High pressure off in the open to our west will slide in here starting on Thursday.

We are tracking several thunderstorms from the south coming up towards Port Hardy. Here is one that is a strong slammer just on the Naniamo River.

Another Strong slammer from between Howell Island and Austin Island

Another strong slammer towards Brewster Lake and the Brewster Lake Recreation site.

And we have this Wild house shaker thunderstorm that is producing cloud to ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong winds with intense thunder and frequent lightning. could even see some small hail with these storms. This storm is over the Shushartie River.

Here is a look at our FutureCAST taking us out over next 18 hours, Rain already starting and moved into Vancouver Island, this will continue to spread further North inland, while Snow, Ice Pellets and Freezing rain will occur for a few hours over the higher terrain over Vancouver Island, and some heavy snowfall turning into a massive blizzard for the Mountainous Terrain. Many of the mountains will see as much as 2 to 3 feet of snow!!! meanwhile closer down to lower levels, up to a half foot can be expected in the very high terrain areas, and areas of lower terrain such as in Vancouver Island and along the coast near the water. only a few cm’s is expected.

Along with Rain, Snow, Mix, Ice & Thunderstorms are the very strong winds! Winds will gust as high as 115-125 km/h for some parts of the South coast later today and tonight while most other areas will still see damaging winds of near 100 km/h. and Inland areas will also see strong winds Gusting 40-80 km/h.

Widespread power outages are very likely today, tonight & tomorrow for much of the South coast, and lower Vancouver, meanwhile further Inland where Gusts of 80+ km/h Gusts are possible, potential outages there are also expected.

Thunderstorms expected over much of all of Vancouver areas and the entire South Coast.

Rain this morning, will be Moderate to even heavy at times. Lighter rainfall over Terrace to Kitimat.

Rain becomes more lighter, by Afternoon but the winds will pick up. meanwhile snow will continue to fall heavily over higher terrain and the mountains.

Similar conditions in the Evening hours. So how much rainfall can we expect by time it is all over?

Large area of 20-30 mm is expected, however there are local spots that will likely reach 40+ mm. areas South of Naniamo and around Hope and Penticton. Could see rainfall amounts of near 50 mm, and a bit more near Hope. For remainder of the province far inland, 5-10 mm for Prince George to Williams Lake and down to Kamloops, Vernon and Kelowna. Further South of those areas, only up to 20 mm is expected.

Here is the latest snow map, these DO INCLUDE amounts for High terrain and mountainous areas.

Huge swatch of 30-50cm with many areas in the mainland mountains getting close to or over 60 cm. Same with Hope, Penticton, Kelowna, Vernon & Salmon Arm high terrains, and the TransCanada highway over the mountains. Prince George to Quesnel, up to 20cm of snow is expected, near 12cm over terrain in Kamloops. Parts of Vancouver coast could see some 6-12cm of snow, before a change over to all rain.

Vancouver Island, up to 20cm over the high terrains and near 6cm in lower elevations before a changeover. a small dusting to 2cm for the South of Nanaimo.

Lastly, here is a look at the winds! very strong along the coast where it will gusts over 100 to even 110+ km/h. this also includes Kelowna to Penticton. further Inland, expect 80 to as high as 95 km/h Gusts and much of the province from Kamloops all the way north, expect Gusts to 60 km/h.

Another update later this afternoon!

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...

Issued at 8:55 PM, October 10th, 2020

Valid for 11 PM, October, 10th, 2020

Forecaster: James Follette

A strong cold front will cross the region this Overnight and move off the coast by Morning, Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front with wind gusts to 40 mph, small pea-sized

hail in a few spots and heavy downpours. In addition, there will be locally heavy rainfall. Any thunderstorm will contain dangerous lightning.

Due to the rapid movement of the storms and strong wind aloft, it is possible that an isolated thunderstorm could transport even stronger wind to the surface, and in very localized spots could produce wind damage and power outages.

Stay tuned to Instant Weather NS for the latest on these developing strong storm cells, and be sure to check out the IW weather app, with free radar. You can track the storms on your phone using our radar.

More on these storms later tonight!