Instant Weather NS Rise 'n Shine Updates: January 12, 2021

Issued: January 12th, 2021 @ 5 AM

Updated: January 12th, 2021 @ 8AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Soup Tuesday morning y'all!

Wow, compared to yesterday morning, It is balmy out there! especially on the south coast where we are now currently at around 3 to 5 degrees.

There is still some colder air in the northern parts of the province but not so bad as yesterday!

Today will be a bit milder! We do have a lot of clouds in the forecast for today and the next several days.

Winds are light this morning and will remain light through the day today and into the middle to later part of the week! Baccaro Point currently a breezy spot with a sustained wind of 22 km/h.

Your Hour by hour, Out the door day planner & the School bus stop forecast, is next at 6 O'clock! along with the not to shabby 5-day Regional forecast and 7 days Halifax forecast!

We also do have some snow out there this morning that have started not too long ago towards the TCH 101 From Digby County all the way towards Kentville, Wolfville, and Hantsport. So if out there this morning, take some extra time and drive slow!

Elsewhere on the roads this morning the 102, 103 is looking mighty fine!

Good Tuesday Morning, local time now 6:30 AM! on this rather cloudy morning, a bit snowy start to the morning on the western portions of the coast. Much milder today also!

Traffic & weather updates on the hour til 9 AM!

Good morning, James here for Instant Weather NS Rise 'n Shine, every morning from 5am to 9am!

Taking a look at the radar first! We do have some snow in the west from East of Digby County all the way towards Annapolis and Kings county. so much of the 101 is slick if heading or coming from there between Digby and Kings. Snow should taper off in a little bit, but we do keep the chance of flurries in the forecast for those areas, along with much of Halifax and north! A little more on the forecast coming up in the next hour.

Hour by Hour forecast, looking at cloudy skies this morning, some breaks in the clouds as we head towards noon, and then as we get into the evening hours, we'll see some of that shower and flurry chance before it clears up and gets much colder later this evening.

Day planner forecast, Look at a rather cloudy day, a chance of flurries later on in the afternoon. A milder day! Because of the clouds, the cool NW wind, and the chance of flurries. going to give this a C- grade today! Better than a D or F!

Out to the bus stop! looking at a much milder morning! compared to -10's yesterday morning. However more cloud cover! Temperatures around 2 degrees on the plus side as you head to the bus stop!

Coming up in the next half hour at 7am, we'll have the latest weather conditions and Traffic updates and at 8am, the latest on your detailed weather forecast!

7 AM! Time to look at the Traffic and latest weather conditions! We’ll start with traffic first! and we do have some snowy weather out there this morning along with the western parts of the province. Main areas of slow travel and snow-covered roads will be along with Cumberland County, Colchester & Hants county this morning.

So if you’re in those regions this morning, may want to give yourselves some extra time and reduce your speed this morning as you head off to school or work.

Elsewhere the roads are bare or wet! and dry conditions.

Taking a look at the road conditions now with the Nova Scotia webcams. We’ll start with the areas seeing the snow this morning.

Taking a look at Amherst HWY 104 N right now, no traffic but it’s not a pretty drive! mostly snow covered roads, and low visibility under some falling snow.

Springhill HWY 104 N, light traffic, some very heavy snow falling and roads are snow covered, so please use extra care on the roads this morning if in Springhill and surrounding areas!

Westchester HWY 4 N now, light traffic and cloudy skies with some snow. wet and slushy road conditions so be sure to reduce your speed and take some extra time on the roads this morning.

Heading to Pugwash HWY 6 E we have snow falling, and wet and slushy roads but no traffic! If heading out this way, be sure to take extra care on the roads and give your self some extra time!

Looking at the Seal Island Bridge looking West, seeing no traffic, dry roads and dry conditions!

Looking at Seal Island Bridge looking East, no traffic, dry roads and dry conditions!

Bridgewater HWY 103 S now, little to no traffic, bare roads and dry conditions.

East Bay HWY 4 N, light traffic, bare roads, a bit slick and dry conditions.

Avonport HWY 101 E looking at little to no traffic, slick roads and dry conditions

Pubnico HWY 103 E, looking at dry roads, dry conditions and little to no traffic!

Milford HWY 102 W we are looking at little traffic, dry conditions and bare roads.

Yarmouth HWY 101 N, light traffic and bare roads and dry conditions!

And lastly, looking at Meteghan HWY 101 N, little to no traffic, dry conditions and bare roads!

We have some travel risks to mention out there this morning with that snow in the western areas. Moderate travel risk for snow, Low travel risk for ice and rain. No wind issues! Overall the Travel risk is low, just be sure if heading on the 101 from Digby to Annapolis and then the 104 towards Amherst, you will need to slow down and take some extra time and care on the roads, this is where the weather Travel risks are needed. Elsewhere it’s dry and bare! and no Travel risk!

Heading for the airport this morning! Expect no delays! and all flights are on time!

The current local time is now 8 AM, when we come back at 9 AM we will have the full detailed weather forecast! And remember! to keep refreshing this page and keep checking it for live updates!

Instant Weather NS Rise 'n Shine Updates: January 12, 2021

Issued: January 12th, 2021 @ 5 AM

Updated: January 12th, 2021 @ 8AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Soup Tuesday morning y'all!

Wow, compared to yesterday morning, It is balmy out there! especially on the south coast where we are now currently at around 3 to 5 degrees.

There is still some colder air in the northern parts of the province but not so bad as yesterday!

Today will be a bit milder! We do have a lot of clouds in the forecast for today and the next several days.

Winds are light this morning and will remain light through the day today and into the middle to later part of the week! Baccaro Point currently a breezy spot with a sustained wind of 22 km/h.

Your Hour by hour, Out the door day planner & the School bus stop forecast, is next at 6 O'clock! along with the not to shabby 5-day Regional forecast and 7 days Halifax forecast!

We also do have some snow out there this morning that have started not too long ago towards the TCH 101 From Digby County all the way towards Kentville, Wolfville, and Hantsport. So if out there this morning, take some extra time and drive slow!

Elsewhere on the roads this morning the 102, 103 is looking mighty fine!

Good Tuesday Morning, local time now 6:30 AM! on this rather cloudy morning, a bit snowy start to the morning on the western portions of the coast. Much milder today also!

Traffic & weather updates on the hour til 9 AM!

Good morning, James here for Instant Weather NS Rise 'n Shine, every morning from 5am to 9am!

Taking a look at the radar first! We do have some snow in the west from East of Digby County all the way towards Annapolis and Kings county. so much of the 101 is slick if heading or coming from there between Digby and Kings. Snow should taper off in a little bit, but we do keep the chance of flurries in the forecast for those areas, along with much of Halifax and north! A little more on the forecast coming up in the next hour.

Hour by Hour forecast, looking at cloudy skies this morning, some breaks in the clouds as we head towards noon, and then as we get into the evening hours, we'll see some of that shower and flurry chance before it clears up and gets much colder later this evening.

Day planner forecast, Look at a rather cloudy day, a chance of flurries later on in the afternoon. A milder day! Because of the clouds, the cool NW wind, and the chance of flurries. going to give this a C- grade today! Better than a D or F!

Out to the bus stop! looking at a much milder morning! compared to -10's yesterday morning. However more cloud cover! Temperatures around 2 degrees on the plus side as you head to the bus stop!

Coming up in the next half hour at 7am, we'll have the latest weather conditions and Traffic updates and at 8am, the latest on your detailed weather forecast!

7 AM! Time to look at the Traffic and latest weather conditions! We’ll start with traffic first! and we do have some snowy weather out there this morning along with the western parts of the province. Main areas of slow travel and snow-covered roads will be along with Cumberland County, Colchester & Hants county this morning.

So if you’re in those regions this morning, may want to give yourselves some extra time and reduce your speed this morning as you head off to school or work.

Elsewhere the roads are bare or wet! and dry conditions.

Taking a look at the road conditions now with the Nova Scotia webcams. We’ll start with the areas seeing the snow this morning.

Taking a look at Amherst HWY 104 N right now, no traffic but it’s not a pretty drive! mostly snow covered roads, and low visibility under some falling snow.

Springhill HWY 104 N, light traffic, some very heavy snow falling and roads are snow covered, so please use extra care on the roads this morning if in Springhill and surrounding areas!

Westchester HWY 4 N now, light traffic and cloudy skies with some snow. wet and slushy road conditions so be sure to reduce your speed and take some extra time on the roads this morning.

Heading to Pugwash HWY 6 E we have snow falling, and wet and slushy roads but no traffic! If heading out this way, be sure to take extra care on the roads and give your self some extra time!

Looking at the Seal Island Bridge looking West, seeing no traffic, dry roads and dry conditions!

Looking at Seal Island Bridge looking East, no traffic, dry roads and dry conditions!

Bridgewater HWY 103 S now, little to no traffic, bare roads and dry conditions.

East Bay HWY 4 N, light traffic, bare roads, a bit slick and dry conditions.

Avonport HWY 101 E looking at little to no traffic, slick roads and dry conditions

Pubnico HWY 103 E, looking at dry roads, dry conditions and little to no traffic!

Milford HWY 102 W we are looking at little traffic, dry conditions and bare roads.

Yarmouth HWY 101 N, light traffic and bare roads and dry conditions!

And lastly, looking at Meteghan HWY 101 N, little to no traffic, dry conditions and bare roads!

We have some travel risks to mention out there this morning with that snow in the western areas. Moderate travel risk for snow, Low travel risk for ice and rain. No wind issues! Overall the Travel risk is low, just be sure if heading on the 101 from Digby to Annapolis and then the 104 towards Amherst, you will need to slow down and take some extra time and care on the roads, this is where the weather Travel risks are needed. Elsewhere it’s dry and bare! and no Travel risk!

Heading for the airport this morning! Expect no delays! and all flights are on time!

The current local time is now 8 AM, when we come back at 9 AM we will have the full detailed weather forecast! And remember! to keep refreshing this page and keep checking it for live updates!

Island to See the Potential for a Northern Lights Show, Especially Labrador!

Issued: December 10, 2020 @ 1:00 AM

Updated: December 10, 2020 @ 1:00 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

A CME from the sun has reached the earth and it could bring gorgeous northern lights as far south as Oregon. A forecasted Geomagnetic storm is in the cards for the next 2 nights!

But will we see some here on the Island? There are a few storms that will impact Labrador and the Island for tonight, and tomorrow night but for Friday night there will be some clearing skies enough to let Labrador see the gorgeous view of the lights and there is also a good chance for extreme Northern central parts of the Island to see the lights as well!

Saturday night! the last night of the lights to appear. This will be the best chance for everyone to get a view! Newfoundland & Labrador as a whole will be able to get a view of the lights to make for a fantastic Winter weekend night.

Nova Scotia to miss out on the Northern Lights show!

Issued: December 10th, 2020 @ 12 AM

Updated: December 10th, 2020 @ 12 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

A CME from the sun has reached the earth and it is possible that northern lights will be seen as far south as Oregon during the next couple of days.

But the question is, will the weather cooperate to make viewing possible? Well sadly the answer is no, We have unsettled weather over next 4 days that will bring nothing but clouds and precipitation.

A potential geomagnetic storm is predicted for tonight and Thursday.

Tonight, a small low pressure will bring scattered showers and flurries and plenty of clouds for the entire province, so tonight is not a great night to see the lights.

Tomorrow Night, There will still be lot’s of cloud cover, but less chance of precipitation. Good news is that there will be some areas in the province that will have clear breaks!

These counties include:

• Cumberland

• Colchester

• Hants

• Halifax East

• Guysborough

• Victoria

These counties will see the chance for a view of auroras on Thursday night.

For Friday Night & Saturday night, mostly cloudy skies will take over for the whole province again.

So best view for the mentioned counties is tomorrow night.

Wet Conditions Continue Overnight.. Perfect for All Ducks

Issued December 1st, 2020 @ 11 PM

Updated December 1st, 2020 @ 3 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Wow-what the first day of December 2020 it was!! We got broken heat records, broken rainfall records, winds over 90km/h in some locations, widespread flooding, and rising rivers. That rain will continue for several hours tonight and into the early part of the morning for the South coast, it would be late evening or Thursday morning when the rain is done in the North and Cape Breton.

Here are the latest Rainfall amounts SO FAR!:

Kejimkujik………… 94 mm

Brier Island……… 77 mm

Yarmouth…………. 72 mm

Shelburne………… 55 mm

Greenwood……… 44.2 mm

Baccaro Point…… 38 mm

Parrsboro………… 19.3 mm

Western Head…… 17 mm

Kentville……………… 14.3 mm

Malay Falls…………... 5mm

Halifax Airport…….. 4 mm

Upper Stewiacke… 0.2 mm

Into tomorrow and Thursday, Here is what we can expect for additional rainfall amounts. For the southern sections, another 30-60 mm of rainfall into tomorrow morning, PLUS another 15+ mm of rain tonight into Thursday! Central portions of the province, won’t see very much only about 5 to 15 mm and Northern portions will see 30 to 45 mm by Thursday evening, Western Cape Breton can see up to 45 mm and Eastern Cape Breton will only see 10 to 20 mm.

Here is our latest rainfall amount forecast for Tomorrow, now this does NOT account for what has already fallen since earlier today, this is additional rainfall amounts. Heaviest rain continues to be in the Yarmouth Inland, Shelburne, Liverpool and Bridgewater area where amounts of another 40 to 75 mm with local amounts of another 100 mm is likely.

Town of Yarmouth and the coast, Digby, Greenwood and up to Kentville and Halifax, Truro another 25 to 50 mm of additional rainfall or 1-2”. Not much rainfall in New Glasgow… and outside of Amherst with locally up to 15 mm expected and Northern portions of the province and Cape Breton, amounts of additional amounts up to 30 mm is expected.

Not only did we have heavy flooding rainfall, but we also had some fairly strong gusty winds! which went just barely the threshold for a wind warning criteria.

Brier Island, Yarmouth & Grand Etang all managed to reach 90 km/h or greater.

Many areas seen Gusts of up to 85 km/h.

The good news is that the strongest winds are now done with!! so all is left is the flooding rain issue. Plan on fairly light winds tomorrow, however over Northern portions of the province we will see gusts of 40 to 60 km/h stick around. Winds will increase across rest of province Wednesday night into Thursday but not as strong as we just seen today. Gusts of 40-60 km/h is as high as it may get.

From Rain & Wind to record warmth!!

For the first day of December, it was quite balmy! we had several areas getting well into the mid and upper 10’s.

Amherst……………. 18* old record: 11.5* in 2005

Truro………………….. 17* old record: 10.2* in 2005

Greenwood……….. 17* old record: 14.6* in 1985

Yarmouth…………… 15* old record: 14.8* in 2006 also broke a record for wettest December 2nd with 68.9 mm, breaking the record back in 1964 with 52.3 mm of rainfall that day that year.

Halifax Airport……. 15* old record: 14.6* in 2008

Flash Flooding Rains and Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts With Near Record High Temperatures to Roll in the Month of December

Issued: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Updated: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good mild morning on this 1st December day! Wow, can you believe it, already in December, seems time went fast, but it sure doesn’t feel like it, we didn’t have much of a fall so far.

It may be the first of December, but we are on storm watch as a large slow-moving storm is going to unleash Widespread flooding rains and Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

So far this morning, wind gusts have reached over 90 km/h, in Brier Island at 91 km/h. Yarmouth and many other areas have already climbed to 78 km/h. These winds will continue to rise as the day and night go on.

It will be Wednesday morning by the time we start to see some clearing, and even then we’re going to see more showers and periods of rain arrive Wednesday Night into Thursday. By the time it is all said and done, many areas of the South coast can see as much as 140 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere in the province, there are amounts of 30-50mm and as much as 75mm closer to Halifax.

We will get to the Forecast rainfall in just a little bit, but first, we will go through the power outages.

High winds this morning have been disrupting powerline wires and bringing some trees down. as of this morning at 4:30 AM, there are 6 active power outages with 4,275 customers without power this morning.

There are fewer than 5 customers in the dark this morning near Kemptville. Clarence East has also fewer than 5 customers in the dark. The number of customers without power goes much higher as we get towards Kentville, where over 4,220 customers are without power this morning and in Seabright this morning, there are 52 customers without power. ETA times for everyone are set for 8 AM as of right now, and all are caused by high winds.

We already have power outages in the province this morning, but lets look at the probability of them! Yarmouth, Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool all have possible outages, which of course is already occurring, but this is for Today and tonight and through Thursday.

From Greenwood to Antigonish, there is a slight chance for more of a isolated outages. We already have large power outages in near Kentville this morning.

The reason for power outages is due to high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Speaking of rainfall, let’s get to the timing of this system!

For this morning, we are looking at very heavy rainfall for Yarmouth through Digby, this is where the rainfall rates at times can exceed 15-20mm/hr! From Shelburne to Truro and near Amherst, heavy rain will slowly move in and some moderate to light rain for remainder of the province.

As we get towards the Afternoon hours through the evening hours, this is when we see the very heavy extreme rainfall that will create some flooding problems and flash floods. Rainfall rates at times will exceed 30mm/hr. Heavy rain spreads as far as Halifax, Light to Moderate rain continues for Northern parts of the province.

even through the overnight hours we will continue to see flooding extreme rainfall amounts. as much as 25 to 45 mm/hr rain rates are possible leading to a high threat for flash flooding and rising water levels in the rivers.

By Wednesday morning, we will have seen the heaviest rain move out, however Heavy rain will continue to fall in the southern sections. and light to moderate for much of the rest of the province.

As the system slowly moves away, we’ll see clearing conditions for the late day hours in the south, some light rain and drizzle sticking around. all that heavy rain moves north impacting Halifax to Amherst and Truro. Moderate rain towards Antigonish and still light rain over Cape Breton.

By Evening and overnight Wednesday, another round of rain, mostly moderate will swing back in the southern portions of the province from Greenwood to Yarmouth. and some remaining left over showers over Northern and Cape Breton.

So how much rainfall can we expect?

This is one of the Canadian models we use, the RGEM, goes out towards 4 days. This model suggests that as much as 140mm will fall in Yarmouth with up to 100 mm in Digby and rest of the south shores. 40 to 80 mm from Halifax North and South. Then once we get towards northern portions of the province, we see rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 mm.

This is our North American Model, or “NAM” The Nam model shows that by Thursday evening, upwards of 80-90 mm can fall. with Northern parts of the province seeing only 10-20mm, except for Cape Breton where 20 to 30 mm still would fall.

One of the Ensemble weather models the ARW models, shows that up to 80 mm by Thursday evening, and up to 25 mm for Central then a lot for Cape Breton with as much as near 50 mm.

WRF ARW model ensemble showing 70-90 mm with up to 50 for central, and 20 to 40 mm over Northern and Cape Breton.

The king of models the ECMWF is suggesting also a good 60-80mm of rainfall. and much lesser amounts North.

then we have the GFS, Global Forecast System. The GFS has over 100 mm of rainfall

Lastly we have the ICON model, this shows a good 100+ mm for the south. So basically the models are split on decision of rainfall forecast.

Up to 140+mm of rain is possible!! otherwise looking at a wide swath of 75 to 125 mm! or 3-5”, could see some areas maybe getting 6” of rain! For Greenwood, Kentville, Halifax, Truro, and Amherst… look for 40 to 75 mm of rainfall by Thursday. Elsewhere in province, look for 15 to 30 mm.

Most of the highest rainfall projections are likely cause of the probability of thunderstorms!!! Risk of thunderstorms through Thursday, A light Isolated risk of severe risk thunderstorms in Yarmouth where some strong wind gusts, and pea size hail and very torrential flash flooding rains can be expected in those storms. Otherwise, a non-severe risk of storms all the way up towards Amherst.

Along with the rain is also the very high winds. because of the center of the low, the highest winds will be on the coast from Yarmouth to Digby where winds could occasionally gusts up to 105 km/h. We already seen gusts up to 91 km/h this morning in Brier Island. For everyone else, winds gusting of 70 to 80 km/h is expected.

For the month of December on the first day, it sure does not feel like it! in fact as of right now, we have temperatures as warm as 15 degrees this early morning.

Temperatures will be in the 15 to 20 range, and I do think some folks MAYBE will flirt with 20-degrees! If it does happen, it will be inland mainland areas near Kentville and Greenwood. Highs there nearing 17 or 18 is very likely.

For Cape Breton, southern parts will see up to 15 degrees, while the north stays cool with highs near 10.

Let’s take a look at the Southern Regional Forecast!

For Yarmouth, looking at some very heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, warm! 15 degrees, still mild tomorrow with more rain and showers, some clearing in the afternoon. cooler but mild! highs of 9, cloudy, drizzly and misty and cool! on Thursday highs only getting up to 6, which is only 1 degree above average. 9 on Friday under sun & clouds and 8 on Saturday with more showers! So staying fairly mild for 1st week of December! and also very wet.

For Digby, Flooding rain and thunderstorms today, 15 degrees, 9 tomorrow with sun and clouds, chance of showers on Thursday and chilly with highs of 5. 8 Saturday with sun and clouds and 6 on for Saturday with a chance of showers returning.

For Shelburne, Heavy flooding rains and embedded storms today, highs of 14. Cloudy and misty tomorrow and Thursday. highs of 9 tomorrow and 6 on Thursday. 10 on Friday with sun and cloud and 8 on Saturday with more showers.

And lastly for Queens! 13 today under heavy rainfall and gusty winds. showers tomorrow, and Thursday. 9 tomorrow, 6 on Thursday. back up to 10 Friday with sun and clouds, return to misty conditions on Saturday and 8-degrees.

Here is your Halifax 7-day Forecast!

Temperature wise…. for the first week of December it is not so bad! but it is going to be very wet and unsettled this week.

Rain today at times heavy and Gusty winds of up to 80 km/h. rainfall amounts as much as 75 mm by Thursday evening. Highs of 15

Tomorrow, still mild! 14 with more rain and wind.

we cool down on Thursday with more showers and sprinkles, remaining breezy. Highs only at 7

10 on Friday with sunny breaks returning.

Saturday is showery and mild. 8-degrees

Sunday is at 13! with another storm system possibly!! this one will need to be watched as the track is a bit close, and will be tapping into cold air, so we could be seeing a messy winter storm or a rain storm. but as of now, a chance of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Monday, Rain turns to snow! windy and turning MUCH colder! we go from 13 on Sunday to -2 on Monday, start the day at near freezing then temperatures will fall during the day. plan on wind chills into the -5’s to -10’s!

Flash Flooding Rains and Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts With Near-Record High Temperatures to Roll in the Month of December

Issued: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Updated: December 1st, 2020 @ 4:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good mild morning on this 1st December day! Wow, can you believe it, already in December, seems time went fast, but it sure doesn’t feel like it, we didn’t have much of a fall so far.

It may be the first of December, but we are on storm watch as a large slow-moving storm is going to unleash Widespread flooding rains and Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

So far this morning, wind gusts have reached over 90 km/h, in Brier Island at 91 km/h. Yarmouth and many other areas have already climbed to 78 km/h. These winds will continue to rise as the day and night go on.

It will be Wednesday morning by the time we start to see some clearing, and even then we’re going to see more showers and periods of rain arrive Wednesday Night into Thursday. By the time it is all said and done, many areas of the South coast can see as much as 140 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere in the province, there are amounts of 30-50mm and as much as 75mm closer to Halifax.

We will get to the Forecast rainfall in just a little bit, but first, we will go through the power outages.

High winds this morning have been disrupting powerline wires and bringing some trees down. as of this morning at 4:30 AM, there are 6 active power outages with 4,275 customers without power this morning.

There are fewer than 5 customers in the dark this morning near Kemptville. Clarence East has also fewer than 5 customers in the dark. The number of customers without power goes much higher as we get towards Kentville, where over 4,220 customers are without power this morning and in Seabright this morning, there are 52 customers without power. ETA times for everyone are set for 8 AM as of right now, and all are caused by high winds.

We already have power outages in the province this morning, but lets look at the probability of them! Yarmouth, Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool all have possible outages, which of course is already occurring, but this is for Today and tonight and through Thursday.

From Greenwood to Antigonish, there is a slight chance for more of a isolated outages. We already have large power outages in near Kentville this morning.

The reason for power outages is due to high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Speaking of rainfall, let’s get to the timing of this system!

For this morning, we are looking at very heavy rainfall for Yarmouth through Digby, this is where the rainfall rates at times can exceed 15-20mm/hr! From Shelburne to Truro and near Amherst, heavy rain will slowly move in and some moderate to light rain for remainder of the province.

As we get towards the Afternoon hours through the evening hours, this is when we see the very heavy extreme rainfall that will create some flooding problems and flash floods. Rainfall rates at times will exceed 30mm/hr. Heavy rain spreads as far as Halifax, Light to Moderate rain continues for Northern parts of the province.

even through the overnight hours we will continue to see flooding extreme rainfall amounts. as much as 25 to 45 mm/hr rain rates are possible leading to a high threat for flash flooding and rising water levels in the rivers.

By Wednesday morning, we will have seen the heaviest rain move out, however Heavy rain will continue to fall in the southern sections. and light to moderate for much of the rest of the province.

As the system slowly moves away, we’ll see clearing conditions for the late day hours in the south, some light rain and drizzle sticking around. all that heavy rain moves north impacting Halifax to Amherst and Truro. Moderate rain towards Antigonish and still light rain over Cape Breton.

By Evening and overnight Wednesday, another round of rain, mostly moderate will swing back in the southern portions of the province from Greenwood to Yarmouth. and some remaining left over showers over Northern and Cape Breton.

So how much rainfall can we expect?

This is one of the Canadian models we use, the RGEM, goes out towards 4 days. This model suggests that as much as 140mm will fall in Yarmouth with up to 100 mm in Digby and rest of the south shores. 40 to 80 mm from Halifax North and South. Then once we get towards northern portions of the province, we see rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 mm.

This is our North American Model, or “NAM” The Nam model shows that by Thursday evening, upwards of 80-90 mm can fall. with Northern parts of the province seeing only 10-20mm, except for Cape Breton where 20 to 30 mm still would fall.

One of the Ensemble weather models the ARW models, shows that up to 80 mm by Thursday evening, and up to 25 mm for Central then a lot for Cape Breton with as much as near 50 mm.

WRF ARW model ensemble showing 70-90 mm with up to 50 for central, and 20 to 40 mm over Northern and Cape Breton.

The king of models the ECMWF is suggesting also a good 60-80mm of rainfall. and much lesser amounts North.

then we have the GFS, Global Forecast System. The GFS has over 100 mm of rainfall

Lastly we have the ICON model, this shows a good 100+ mm for the south. So basically the models are split on decision of rainfall forecast.

Up to 140+mm of rain is possible!! otherwise looking at a wide swath of 75 to 125 mm! or 3-5”, could see some areas maybe getting 6” of rain! For Greenwood, Kentville, Halifax, Truro, and Amherst… look for 40 to 75 mm of rainfall by Thursday. Elsewhere in province, look for 15 to 30 mm.

Most of the highest rainfall projections are likely cause of the probability of thunderstorms!!! Risk of thunderstorms through Thursday, A light Isolated risk of severe risk thunderstorms in Yarmouth where some strong wind gusts, and pea size hail and very torrential flash flooding rains can be expected in those storms. Otherwise, a non-severe risk of storms all the way up towards Amherst.

Along with the rain is also the very high winds. because of the center of the low, the highest winds will be on the coast from Yarmouth to Digby where winds could occasionally gusts up to 105 km/h. We already seen gusts up to 91 km/h this morning in Brier Island. For everyone else, winds gusting of 70 to 80 km/h is expected.

For the month of December on the first day, it sure does not feel like it! in fact as of right now, we have temperatures as warm as 15 degrees this early morning.

Temperatures will be in the 15 to 20 range, and I do think some folks MAYBE will flirt with 20-degrees! If it does happen, it will be inland mainland areas near Kentville and Greenwood. Highs there nearing 17 or 18 is very likely.

For Cape Breton, southern parts will see up to 15 degrees, while the north stays cool with highs near 10.

Let’s take a look at the Southern Regional Forecast!

For Yarmouth, looking at some very heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, warm! 15 degrees, still mild tomorrow with more rain and showers, some clearing in the afternoon. cooler but mild! highs of 9, cloudy, drizzly and misty and cool! on Thursday highs only getting up to 6, which is only 1 degree above average. 9 on Friday under sun & clouds and 8 on Saturday with more showers! So staying fairly mild for 1st week of December! and also very wet.

For Digby, Flooding rain and thunderstorms today, 15 degrees, 9 tomorrow with sun and clouds, chance of showers on Thursday and chilly with highs of 5. 8 Saturday with sun and clouds and 6 on for Saturday with a chance of showers returning.

For Shelburne, Heavy flooding rains and embedded storms today, highs of 14. Cloudy and misty tomorrow and Thursday. highs of 9 tomorrow and 6 on Thursday. 10 on Friday with sun and cloud and 8 on Saturday with more showers.

And lastly for Queens! 13 today under heavy rainfall and gusty winds. showers tomorrow, and Thursday. 9 tomorrow, 6 on Thursday. back up to 10 Friday with sun and clouds, return to misty conditions on Saturday and 8-degrees.

Here is your Halifax 7-day Forecast!

Temperature wise…. for the first week of December it is not so bad! but it is going to be very wet and unsettled this week.

Rain today at times heavy and Gusty winds of up to 80 km/h. rainfall amounts as much as 75 mm by Thursday evening. Highs of 15

Tomorrow, still mild! 14 with more rain and wind.

we cool down on Thursday with more showers and sprinkles, remaining breezy. Highs only at 7

10 on Friday with sunny breaks returning.

Saturday is showery and mild. 8-degrees

Sunday is at 13! with another storm system possibly!! this one will need to be watched as the track is a bit close, and will be tapping into cold air, so we could be seeing a messy winter storm or a rain storm. but as of now, a chance of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Monday, Rain turns to snow! windy and turning MUCH colder! we go from 13 on Sunday to -2 on Monday, start the day at near freezing then temperatures will fall during the day. plan on wind chills into the -5’s to -10’s!

Mother Nature Has Lost Her Temper

Issued: Monday. November 23rd, 2020 @ 7:30 AM

Updated: Monday. November 23rd, 2020 @ 12:00 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good late morning! You will want to enjoy this gorgeous beautiful weather today because, as we get into tonight, tomorrow, and early parts of Wednesday, we are going to be bombarded with Rain, Snow, & Damaging winds.

We’ve got a Blizzard that will be occurring in Labrador with Snowfall warnings, Blizzard warnings, High Wind warnings, Wreck house wind warning, Winter storm warning, and special weather statements in effect!

A look at what to expect!

We’ll start the timing here at 5:30 PM this evening! Flurries begin to enter the Channel-Port Aux Basques, while rest of province will see increasing clouds.

By 8:30 PM this evening, we’ll see Flurries begin to develop and spread Eastward from Stephenville, Deer Lake, Corner Brook, and into Grand Falls Windsor.

As we get into the late evening hours near midnight, we’ll see a switch to rain from the Channel-Port Aux Basques to Corner Brook, Deer Lake, and North. Further North into St. Anthony, look for some ice mix and snow flurries.

Now entering overnight hours into Tuesday morning, Rain begins to spread far west in the south from Channel-Port-Aux-Basques to Deer Lake, Corner Brook, and parts of the Northern Peninsula. A wintry mix can be expected further North on the northern most part of the province, which includes St. Anthony.

Waking up tomorrow morning on the Island, expect widespread rainfall from Channel-Port-Aux-Basques to Clarenville and Marystown. The Avalon will remain dry for the first few hours of the start of the day.

By 8:30 AM Tuesday, Rain would now have engulphed the entire Island. Light Rain from the Avalon Peninsula to Clarenville, Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor, Corner Brook and Deer Lake and up north into St. Anthony. As the Low nears and intensifies, we’ll see heavy rainfall enter Southern sections from Stephenville, Channel-Port-Aux-Basques through the Burin Peninsula in Marystown and south-western sections of the Avalon Peninsula such as Placentia.

By time it is near Dinner time, and you have your chili put on or your fish that you caught, there will be heavy rain over much of the entire province. Exception will be Gander and Northern parts of the Island through St. Anthony.

As we enter Tuesday Afternoon, Heavy rain will now change to snow for Western sections from Deer Lake to the Channel-Port-Aux-Basques, a dry break East of there. heavy rain tapers to light rain for Northern Peninsula and Burin Peninsula. however we will continue to see heavy rainfall continue into the Avalon Peninsula.

By Supper hour, much of the system has exited, some left over remaining showers for Northern Avalon Peninsula, including St. John’s, and Northern most part of the province up towards St. Anthony. Snow will continue into the western parts of the island. from the Channel-Port-Aux-Basques to Deer Lake and a bit further up. Corner Brook is included in this.

By 8:30 pm in the evening, we can expect snow over Western sections to continue, areas of Grand Falls-Windsor eastward, will see clearing conditions. But that snow in the west will stick around through much of early Wednesday morning, which is why we do have the higher snowfall numbers in that area.

Monday Storm Timeline

Nothing much to be expected today with the exception of rain beginning in Corner Brook & Port-Aux-Basques.

Now Tomorrow is an all different story together! Depending on where you are, you could have a quick storm or a slow and punishing storm.

Rain will begin in the Avalon Peninsula by early Tuesday morning on the capes around 4 or 5 am but not in the capital city of St. John’s until 8 am. Northern Peninsula will see rain begin near 7 or 8 am. West coast is where all the action is! Rain continuing to fall through tonight all the way into 11 am in Corner Brook where it will then change to snow then heavy snow later in the evening. Rain continues and changes to snow in the Channel-Port-Aux - Basque at 11 am and continues through the night hours of Wednesday.

St. Anthony will start off as some Mixed precipitation and Ice pellets ( Sleet) then change to rain by 4 am and snow as of 7 pm tomorrow evening.

By Wednesday morning while much of the island is cleared off, Snow will still continue to fall over western sections. through at least 5 to 8 AM. For, Corner Brook, Port-Aux-Basques & St. Anthony.

Rainfall Amounts

Rainfall will be heaviest over Southern sections, Burin Peninsula and the Avalon Peninsula.

• Avalon Peninsula can expect upwards of 30 mm with local amounts up to 40 mm.

• Burin Peninsula can expect a little less rainfall, with amounts of 5 to 10 mm however up to 20 mm in local areas are likely.

• Northern and Central from Gander to Grandfalls-Windsor, amounts of 5 to 10 mm, local amount of up to 20 mm

• South West Coast. the highest rainfall with 50 to as much as 70 mm of rainfall. Elsewhere 30 to 50 mils can be expected.

The Snow! Blizzard & Blowing snow

Along with Rain is the heavy snow to the west!! A big chunk of the Island will only see a dusting to 2 cm, but winds will persist and strong enough to create blowing snow. Channel-Port-Aux-Basques and northward, as much as 12 cm, with local amounts up to 15 cm. Stephenville, Corner Brook, Deer Lake, as much as 20 cm of snow can fall by Wednesday morning.

Strong winds will give Blizzard like conditions for much of the Western portions of the Island.

For Labrador… Blizzard warnings are in place for what will be an epic monster snowstorm. Winds of 90-120 km/h and snowfall amounts of 2-4ft! drifts could be as high as 5-7ft! Travel is expected to be nearly impassable, widespread power outages are expected and plenty of wind damage as well for much of Labrador.

The Powerful winds! Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force!

• The biggest story with this storm is the winds! many wind warnings are in place!

• Avalon Peninsula can see winds exceeding 110 km/h and as high as 120-130 km/h. exception will be the northwest parts of the Avalon Peninsula where winds gusting to 105 km/h is expected.

• Burin Peninsula can expect 90 to 115 km/h Gusts, East of Marystown winds will likely exceed 110 km/h.

• Central portions of the province can expect wind gust to be 90-105 km/h

• Northern portions of the province can expect 80-95 km/h wind gust from Gander to GrandFalls-Windsor.

• Farthest Northern section of the Province towards St.Anthony, wind gust of 90-105 km/h is expected including in St.Anthony, West of St. Anthony wind gusts are very likely to exceed 110 km/h.

• Western Portions, wind gust will be very strong! with Gusts as high as 120-130 km/h towards Port-Aux-Basques. and 100-115 km/h from stephenville, Corner Brook and towards Deer Lake.

Clearing Begins! But So Does the Big Chill and Snowflakes! *Monday Storm Coverage*

Issued: November. 16th, 2020 @ 11: 30 AM

Updated: November. 16th, 2020 @ 3:30 PM

Forecaster: Student Meteorologist James Follett

Good Afternoon! It is 3:30 PM, and we have some new updates to talk about!

Storm Surge Warning and Special Weather Statements have now ENDED.

High wind warnings remain in effect for CB.

Looking at Radar right now, We have some heavy rain occurring over Northern Nova Scotia and more clearing to the South. We also have showers and downpours over New Brunswick and Maine, These will likely fade out somewhat, but don’t be surprised if some pop-up showers arrive near the Bay of Fundy.

Looking at current Wind Gusts,

https://meteologix.com/ca/observations/nova-scotia/gusts-10min/20201116-1900z.html

Here is a look at the latest Wind Gusts, Wind Gust of 80 km/h right now in Sydney. still have Gusts of Tropical Storm force which is over 64 km/h, as high as 70 km/h. Winds Gusting to the south still over 40-50 km/h.

Looking at the FutureCAST right now. NAM model shows fast clearing through the day with the rain ending this evening or overnight in CB, However, showers are possible.

Behind the storm is a very cold arctic mass and when that taps into the leftover moisture, the cold air above, and the warm waters below. we are looking at the potential for flurries and squalls Tomorrow Night and Wednesday. Sunshine and cold air continue the rest of the week.

As of 3:30 PM there are currently 11 active power outages that are affecting 29 customers. Down from 204 four hours ago.

That will do it for this Special Weather Update

Can catch other fast-breaking updates on our Facebook page, just go to Instant Weather NS. Or to our IW app for the latest radar and forecast!

Hope to catch you back here at 4 pm and you can catch the evening updates at 6,7,9,10 & 11!

Be safe, Be well, Buh-Bye!

Winter Storm! Snow for Vancouver, As Much as 2 Feet! Over Higher Terrains and Mountains

Issued: November.11,2020 @ 5 PM

Updated: November.11, 2020 @ 5 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Afternoon! We have a lot to talk about in today’s forecast! Although for many areas around the province it’s a nice sunny but cold day! We also have some showers that came through Victoria and Vancouver over the last few hours, The RGEM FutureCAST model has done a really good job in forecasting that.

Last night, I was leaning more on the NAM and ECMWF model, but now that I see the showers came about as the RGEM and GEM model forecast.

This doesn’t really change much in the forecast for the lashing winter weather we are about to get!!

A very strong and moisten storm will begin to arrive very late tonight into the day Thursday and then another storm comes in on Friday through Saturday morning.

So there are 2 separate storms and both of them will deliver something different to some parts along with Vancouver.

Storm 1: Late tonight into Thursday, Heavy snow at times for Inland Vancouver and Metro, Downtown Vancouver could even see a few slushy inches! But head far inland towards the North district of Vancouver and Port Moody to Coquitlam that is where you could see several inches of snow!

Along with the snow, is the heavy rain that would lash the coastal areas with as much as 50 to 75 mm of rain by the time that Saturday morning rolls around.

Winds will not be too strong as they will mainly stay south, but Gusts to 40-60 km/h is very likely.

Storm 2: Late Thursday night into Saturday morning, Heavy snow will continue to fall in the very high elevations and far inland. But snow will become rain over much of the entire Vancouver area, Snow in the mountains will continue to pile up, seeing as much as 2-3 feet! in lower elevations inland, up to 15-30cm is expected! The Interior could see another 5-15cm.

Rainfall will continue to fall on the coast, and become a bit heavier.

Winds will be stronger in this storm, gusting up to 80 km/h in Vancouver and Victoria and along the coast. Inland can see gusts up to 70 km/h.

So with all this rain, snow & wind, it is very likely we can see power outages.

Looking at the FutureCAST timing this out over the next 3-4 days. This is the RGEM model and it’s doing a pretty good job so far in today’s forecast!

So Nice today, other than some flurries far inland and a few showers in Victoria and Vancouver. The heavy rain and snow arrive in the early hours of the morning so expect snow for inland Vancouver, a mix to mostly rain in the Metro of Vancouver and along the coast, Victoria will stay all rain for both systems.

The next system is a bit stronger and will sink south of Victoria, this will bring wind-driven rain for much of Vancouver and along the coasts & islands. But snow at times heavy will continue to fall for far inland areas and mountainous terrain.

By Saturday morning we finally begin to clear up a little.

Here is the models’ projection on snowfall over the next 3 days into Saturday, notice the bright pink-purple like colors? that is amounts of over 2-3 feet! This will fall over the higher terrains and mountainous areas. But Vancouver Inland… 5 to 15 cm over the North District of Vancouver, a few inches for the Metro and as head far north of Vancouver District, up to 30cm can fall! Vancouver Island Inland areas could see as much as 25 to 30cm of snow, coastal areas near the water will see much less with amounts of up to 5cm.

for the rest of the province, here is what you can expect in possible snowfall.

Interior can see as much as 15cm, possibly more can not be ruled out! Further north more to the east, you will see far less snow, as the system will ne further away from you, Amounts of a few cm’s.

Here is what you can expect in my snowfall forecast!

Vancouver Island: 10-20cm with locally up to 25cm in the inland areas.

Inland Vancouver, Whistler, and Squamish to Hope you will see the highest amounts! depending on where you are, the higher up you are in the elevations the more snow you will get and those areas will see up to 50cm and lower elevations could see just 25cm.

For the Interior and much of mainland BC, look for about 5 to 10cm, however, could be some local amounts of up to 15cm.

Then we get to the Rockies into AB border, expect upwards of 30cm with local amounts near 40cm.

With the 2 combined storms, there is going to be a lot of precipitation water! now this includes all types of precipitation including snow! The areas that will see rain, such as along the coasts and in Vancouver, Vancouver Island Coastal areas. a good 50 to 75 mm of rain will likely fall by Saturday morning.

For rest of BC, look at a good 10-30 mm of water in snow form! and with super cold temperatures far north and over mountains and high elevations that will produce a very high snow ratio and that is why the amounts are higher in those areas. The colder it is, the more snow will fall!

Here is my thoughts on the rainfall amounts through Saturday, A wide swath of a good 30-50mm with locally up to 70mm! And honestly, with the models being in a good agreement on showing 50 or more, I may tick that up in tonight’s forecast from 30-50 to 50-75mm. Either way, expect a flooding rain! You are wanting to make sure to unclog your storm drains so that the water call flow down into the sewer and not get clogged and create street flooding.

So for today, expect a chance of flurries or rain showers as that has been the case this afternoon from Squamish to Vancouver and for the South-East parts of the province.

Then we get into Thursday!, There is that Low pressure just near Vancouver Island. A good soaking rain much of the coast, Very heavy snow inland and it will also be breezy at times with gusts up to 40 or 50 km/h. and from Prince George to the Okanagan looking at some Flurries.

Then we have storm #2 for Friday! Low pressure over Vancouver island will sink south and curve up the coast. A nasty snow storm for Vancouver Island, and many parts of the coast, with exception of near Vancouver will you will be all rain!

Parts of the Interior from Kamloops to Hope, can look at a steady snowfall with blowing snow and potential blizzard conditions at times.

Strong winds on the coasts will gusts upwards of 60-80 km/h and that will create some blizzard conditions.

For the rest of today, expect sun and clouds for much of everyone, except some flurries in Kelowna and even some showers in Vancouver and Victoria late this afternoon and evening. Storm arrives in Vancouver to Victoria later overnight with a mix bag in Vancouver and rain in Victoria. Highs of 4-7 degrees, and lows tonight dipping down to -5 in Kamloops to as warm as +3 in Victoria.

Here in the city, expect gorgeous sunshine today, however again there is that shower chance in the afternoon hours. highs on the chilly side! only 3-6 degrees. South-West winds on the light side at only 5-10 km/h.

Today, Sunny & cold with a chance of showers late in the day, high of 6. a slight chance of rain-snow mix overnight tonight with lows dipping down near the freezing mark at 1 degrees.

Here is your 7-day forecast, We are nice today, slightly breezy and cool with possible showers on the coast. high of 7. Colder tomorrow with a winter storm on our steps, snow inland, rain/mix on the coast. cold! highs only around 5 degrees!

Storm# 2 arrives on Friday, this time it is all rain and gusty winds to 80 km/h. That rain byway will be very heavy at times and some flooding is likely. milder at 7! lows of 4.

We continue to warm up on Saturday with lots of clouds but the precipitation stays far to the North sand South of us to not give us a bother. Sunday is also dry and slightly cool at 7. So your weekend is dry and cool but not a stormy one like Thursday & Friday so the weekend will be a great time to get out.

And getting out on the weekend will be a great idea because look what is coming for the start of the new week! YUP! another storm, this one though is all rain, lot’s of it! more flooding problems, strong winds. But the best part is that it is not a very cold rain, in fact, the temperatures will rise into the low 10’s!

I’ll have a better update on the 2 storms, and your latest updated forecast! coming up later tonight!

Have a safe Remembrance day, Remember to wash your hands, keep 6ft apart, and wear a mask! The more people that do this, the more quickly we can go back to normal!

Be safe, Be well, Buh-Bye!

You Will Have Plenty of Snow to Make Snow Cones!!!

Issued: November 9th, 2020 @ 10:30 PM

Updated: November 9th, 2020 @ 10: 30 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

The barometer is diving, the northerly winds are blowing, and the flakes are flying as of early this evening. Snow from the Fraser Valley to Osoyoos continues to pile up this evening and the snow will continue to fall well into the morning hours of tomorrow.

As much as 20+cm of snow can fall over much of the Interior and Fraser Valley from Prince George all the way down to Kelowna. There could also be amounts of up to 20-25 cm over Whistler. For the rest of the mainland, It looks like a good 6-12cm, however local amounts of up to 16cm is not out of the question.

For the coasts, Vancouver Island and the Metro of Vancouver, it looks like just a few slushy inches or up to 4cm, however further north in higher elevations of Vancouver could see local amounts nearing 6-10cm.

Vancouver Island can see as much as 10cm locally.

The white stuff is all thanks to a frontal low pressure and a low pressure over Northern Alberta, these two lows are sending cold arctic air down to the far south.

The weather will improve by Tomorrow afternoon, with scattered flurries still being a possibility, but the main snow will be done with.

High pressure takes over the province on Wednesday, but it will be located to the North West of us which means the winds will be coming from that area where it’s cold. So while it will be a beautiful day, there will also be some very chilly temperatures.

Another low pressure off the coast will impact coastal parts of the province Wednesday night into Thursday with more rain and snow & likely some gusty winds.

But a much bigger storm will arrive on Friday, with very low pressure, a pressure center of 968mb, So if you have a Barometer at home, the 968mb is way down near the bottom in the STORMY section.

Coastal parts of the province can expect a very long stretch of unsettled weather, heavy rain, snow & 100 km/h winds are likely on Friday.

There will be more on Friday’s system over the coming days.

Flooding rains, Tropical Storm Force Winds & Snow to Start The 1st Week of November!

Issued on November 1st, 2020 at 8 AM

Updated at 3:30 AM, November 2nd, 2020

Forecaster: Student Meteorologist James Follett

Good Morning! It’s the first of November! only 2 full months left of this crazy terrifying year, and also 2 months until Christmas y’all! in fact, while I was buying some junk food for myself so I can binge Halloween movies much of the night haha. I ended up watching Halloweentown and Hocus Pocus! so anyway, As I was going through the isle I started to see the Christmas candy and foods out! such as candy canes, chocolate liquor & those Christmas day calendars with a piece of chocolate for each day. So it’s coming fast!

I hope you all had a fantastic Halloween and didn’t get sick from all the candy! You’re going to want to enjoy today’s weather because we have a pretty big size storm coming our way that will start off as some heavy flooding rainfall & strong Tropical-storm-force winds. Then as the system pulls away, it is going to usher in some very cold air, and that will change much of the rain to snow, and there could be some ocean effect snow squalls!

We have Flood warnings up for southern portions of Nova Scotia, and Wind warnings for Cape Breton, and I would not be surprised to see wind warnings get expanded to much of the province.

We’ll start off by looking at the FutureCAST taking us out through the next 84 hours, High pressure currently keeping us dry, but very cold inland! will begin to break down and move eastward later today, this will give us some increasing cloudiness as we go into the rest of the day. Your afternoon drive, noon hour rush hour, and as well as the evening rush hour should be dry! It looks like, as of now that the first bands of rain will arrive on the South Shores and Tri-Counties sometime near 8 or 9 O’clock tonight.

The system is a fast mover, so it will not take long for the rain to spread across the province, the heaviest rain will arrive in the Southern parts of the province sometime near midnight and continue into the early morning hours of Monday. Then as the low begins to exit, we will see the rain taper off a little to some showers and light to moderate rain at times and this will continue until noontime, then we will see that cold air mass flow in right after lunchtime. Those are the blue lines you see, which represents the 500mb level, the lower the number in the blue, the colder the airmass so for example if you see 522, that is a polar air mass and that is very cold! 534-540 is the threshold for rain/snow or as we call it the rain/snow line. it’s the dividing line between cold and warm air.

By noontime, we will be 540, which is the start of cold air, however, it will still be warm enough to produce liquid precipitation. But because the colder air is funneling down, we’ll likely see temperatures drop through the day on Monday and the thickness levels drop down to 528mb by afternoon and this is normally the level we start seeing some mixed precipitation or snow however the models want to put it at drizzle/showers and I think it’s a bit underdone on the type of precipitation because at 7 pm Monday night, the model has precipitation falling as some light showers or drizzle and perhaps some light rain in the darkest green. The low will be centered just south of Yarmouth at this timeframe. a thickness level of 528, but when looking at the 850mbT ( Temperatures at 5000ft up) temperatures are going to be around -5 degrees, well cold enough for snow to form in the upper air, and temperatures at the surface will be between 3 and 6 degrees, which is mild.. however, if the air above is cold enough then it can still snow at these mild temperatures, in fact, it can snow even at 10 degrees C at the surface if the upper air temperatures are just cold enough! but it wouldn’t stick to the surface of course, but you would see it fall :)

In this case, with cold enough upper air temperatures and temperatures at the surface just a few degrees above freezing. The above freezing temperatures at the surface are likely why models say rain but I think this would fall as some wet snow! So do not be surprised to see some wet snowflakes around supper time Tomorrow.

Now, by the time we get near midnight Monday into Tuesday morning, you notice how the greens change to blue which represents snow of course. In fact, showing some moderate snowfall over Digby county by midnight. The thickness levels remain near 528, but the surface temperatures are right around 1 degree C, still above freezing but at 850mb or (5000ft) temperatures are now down to a very cold -10 degrees C and this is why the models are showing the change to snow, and I think the models have this pretty good at showing snow near midnight starting near Digby then spreading inland to rest of the province.

Scattered flurries and potential local ocean effect snow squalls continue into Tuesday afternoon as the cold air continues to dive down. in fact, by 10 am Tuesday the thickness levels are at 522! which is a polar airmass, this is an air mass with some very cold air, and so this is why we can expect precipitation to be all snow. It’s going to be a very cold day on Tuesday, so enjoy the last of warmth while you can!

By Wednesday it is back to sunshine, however, the temperatures will remain quite chilly!

Taking a look at the latest Infrared Satellite, MSLP & Fronts. Here is our big storm located over Ontario, it’s very large! it is spreading clouds and precipitation over much of the North Eastern US, and parts of the SE states. We have this large cold front that stretches all the way down to Texas, this cold front is what will usher in cold air for Tomorrow late day and continue into Wednesday, and actually, there is another front behind that one, and that one is what will be the very cold but dry air for Wednesday.

Here are the latest current temperatures and fronts. notice the warm air ahead of the first front under a High pressure? Temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s F. Behind the first front, there is little temperature change but it’s cooler into the 40’s to near 50 F. Then behind the 2nd cold front, and the very large high-pressure zone that is where you will see the coldest air! with temperatures into the 10’s F, which is in the -10’s C. We will be getting a piece of that! coming in here for Tuesday & Wednesday! so starting the month off to a bang and celebrating it with Mr. coldmeiser.

Now, with that big low pressure, there is tightening isobars and the tighter they are the windier it is! and boy is it windy and gonna get even windier over Ontario and great lakes! We have sustained winds in those areas as high at 60 km/h with higher gusts near 100 km/h! and those winds are heading this way for later tonight into Tuesday.

We have several advisories, watches & warnings in place to our south ahead of this storm, as well as do we in terms of wind and flood warnings. There are marine advisories up and down the whole entire eastern seaboard and all of the Southern state’s coastline as far as Texas! We have several winter advisories and wind advisories over the Great lakes, Freeze warnings to the south, and parts of the Northeastern states.

Looking at the current fronts, we have High pressure dominating much of the east coast and a large low pressure over the Great lakes, a cold front that stretches down towards Texas, another cold front behind it that goes into Oklahoma.

Fast forward into 11 am Tomorrow, seeing the fronts not moving much, we have the cold fronts still over the Great Lakes, High pressure moved further away, and pressure falling.

The low deepens and cold front becomes more longer and stronger as we get into the 24 hour period at 11 am Tomorrow morning.

So How much rain are we talking here?

We have the RDPS and ECMWF models of Total Precipitation. The top one, which is the RDPS Canadian model is suggesting that the highest amounts will be on the South Shores, while the Euro model says Digby/Yarmouth area.

As of now, with the storm track and model guidance, it looks like the heaviest rain will be in the entire southern parts of the province, elsewhere there will still be some significant rainfall but not as much as the southern areas.

Here is a look at the amounts from the FutureCAST RDPS model, darkest reds are amounts 60-90mm+

Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne & Queens can expect amounts of 50 to 75 mm, with higher local amounts possible. Instead, this model has 80 mm for Yarmouth through Wednesday. The rest of the province can see 30 to 50 mm, however a few spots looking to see 15 to 25 mm.

Now, the question is how much of the white stuff?? well, here is the good news! not expecting much. Much of the province will see an inch or less, there will be some spotty locations that will likely see some more. Parts of Digby county could see as much as 4” or 10 cm, and Northern & Western CB could see as much as 25 cm! Eastern CB, likely up to 2” or 5cm and much of the Eastern side of the province will see a dusting if anything!

From rain & snow to now winds, which will be the biggest story! because we are going to have many areas get Tropical-storm-force winds and these winds could be damaging. especially after just celebrating Halloween, if you have any decorations, it will be a good day to spend the day bringing them in as they could be at risk of being tossed in the wind. The wind will also cause possible damage to roofs and windows.

Winds will increase through tonight into Tomorrow, with Gusts over much of the province between 80 and 100 km/h, however, there will be some areas who may get above 110 km/h. Newfoundland is gonna get blasted Tomorrow!

Winds will be lightest in Digby & Yarmouth, where winds will likely just Gust to 70 km/h.

Check back here for a further update at 6pm for the latest on the storm and your local & regional forecast!

Arctic Blast To Freeze The Province With Cold, Snow, Rain & Wind

Updated: Saturday, October 18th, 2020 @ 5:45 AM

Valid: Friday, October 17th, 2020 @ 11 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

A large trough of low pressure that is bringing relentless bitter cold air to much of Northern British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Northern Ontario. Will continue to deepen today as it digs even further south over the coming days which will allow for more cold air to funnel in.

The first snow of the season arrived today for many parts of the province, including the Interior. Higher elevations could pick up as much as 10cm by Midnight Sunday.

Once the snow stops, there will be a series of low pressures that will spread snow and rain showers at times for a few days, then by Thursday, we’ll see a big blast of cold air with highs struggling to hit the freezing mark for many areas, including the coast of Vancouver.

A storm system will bring a messy mix bag of weather to the province on Friday with potential for heavy snow inland, mixed bag, and heavy rain on the coast, and very strong winds.

It could be near Halloween by the time that we will see things warm up back to seasonal again, which is around 13*C for this time of year.

The jet stream is what divides cold and warm air and steers the storms and systems. A large High to the south of our province and a storm system off our coast is helping in keeping us in the middle (for now) notice how by Tomorrow and through Wednesday that the jet flattens? that means much colder air and with a storm off the coast, we are looking at more snow on the way, and rain on the coast. Either way though, we will be seeing some very bitter cold air through the week and possibly to start next week as well!

One of the forecast model tools we use in forecasting and especially in winter forecasting is the 500mb Heights or also known as the 1000-500mb Thickness level. This will give us an idea of what air mass will be around, values of 522 and below indicate a polar air mass, this is where you will get the coldest temperatures and likely snow, 534-540 is known as the rain/snow line. normally 534 would be a mix of rain or snow or just snow and 540 would be a mix of rain and snow or just rain, anything above 540 is usually rain. Then there is 570 and above, that is your Tropical airmass, the hot, humid & sticky air mass from the south.

We’ll be right on that rain/snow line for a good while here in the Interior. Northern parts of the province will see the colder airmass values, and warmer along the coast. The extreme cold is currently over Alberta.

By mid-week, the jet stream flattens and the colder air with height values closer to 528 will bring a chance of snow again to the Interior and as far south as Vancouver West.

Temperatures will be dropping over the next several days, with the coldest air hitting at the end of the week. Temperatures over Northern parts of the province will see temperatures fall to as low as -25*C and highs struggling to get to -5. As for the Interior, Central, and South, temperatures will plummet into the low to mid 5’s for highs with on/off snow and rain showers and wake up to temperatures of near or slightly below the freezing mark. Lower elevations in the city centres will be warmest and likely not see any snow.

For coastal areas, temperatures over the next few days will hover neat 10 degrees than by late week, we will see temperatures drop sharply to the low 5’s.

Overall, the story is that we will see temperatures be below normal by as much as 5 to 10 degrees much of this week!

The 24-hour Temperature change from yesterday will start to fall about near 4 degrees cooler, once we get into Monday-Tuesday, we’ll see 24-hour temperature changes by as much as 20 to 30 degrees colder!

Here’s the Short term forecast, looking at the FutureCAST, we are looking at the RGEM model here and we can see snow exiting this afternoon, as High pressure lingers a little keeping the Northern parts of our province dry. Then as a large High pressure settles over North Eastern parts of the province, the North East winds will shift in colder air to much of the province with exception to the coast, we’ll see scattered showers and snow flurries tonight and again tomorrow. Rain showers on the Vancouver coast.

It’s Thursday into Friday when the big changes happen, still early on those details, but could be looking at a messy size storm, and some record frigid cold air for the Okanagan deserts, especially in northern parts of province.

How much snowfall can we expect? Through Tonight, a widespread 5 to 10cm is expected for mostly higher terrains, lower terrains will see less or just rain, some isolated areas will see only a few cms. further north will see up to 2cm, and the Southeast sections of the province can see as much as 20cm in the higher elevations!

As we fast forward the snowfall totals into Wednesday, we can see additional amounts of snow for Northern parts of the province with up to 20cm possible by end of Wednesday.

Let’s take a look now at your forecast for Tonight!

Greater Vancouver area looking at Rain once again tonight, lows still mild! around 7 degrees. Rain/snow mix for Kamloops, except rain in the city, to snow in the higher elevations, could pick up as much as 10cm! Lows down to -1 tonight, near 0 in the city.

Prince George is beautiful with a few clouds, cold! -7 degrees and +2 in Kelowna with snow snow flurries!

Here is a look now at your Vancouver 7 day forecast!

Looking at rain ending later this morning or noon hour, then rather mostly cloudy skies, some peaks of sunshine. highs only around 10 today, a chance of showers tomorrow and a tad milder! around 12 degrees, then we dry it out for Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure, a very large one! lot’s of dry air with this and the models are predicting pressure as high as 1050mb! If you have a barometer at home, the 1050mb is the borderline of entering into the Very dry section. Those Northeast winds from the high pressure will send down cooler air again with temperatures dropping to near 10, 11 on Friday with rain and rain/snow mix, except snow in Vancouver West. and wet snow or mix for Saturday and a high of ONLY 4 degrees!

For Kamloops and the Thompson river areas and Interior, we are looking at a very miserable and cold, wintry like forecast! Looking at snow ending this morning in the high elevations, rain clearing in the lower elevations. high of 4 today! Showers at times tomorrow and warmer at 8, but still below our normal of 12! Tuesday is when it goes down hill! chance of flurries and 5, Wednesday, a chance of flurries and 4, cloudy and 2 on Thursday, Snow, could be a lot! on Friday with highs near freezing, -9 on Friday morning! very cold on Saturday and a chance of flurries or snow… highs only at -4! and lows near -10.

There could be relief though by the last week of October heading into Halloween!

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...

Issued at 8:55 PM, October 10th, 2020

Valid for 11 PM, October, 10th, 2020

Forecaster: James Follette

A strong cold front will cross the region this Overnight and move off the coast by Morning, Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front with wind gusts to 40 mph, small pea-sized

hail in a few spots and heavy downpours. In addition, there will be locally heavy rainfall. Any thunderstorm will contain dangerous lightning.

Due to the rapid movement of the storms and strong wind aloft, it is possible that an isolated thunderstorm could transport even stronger wind to the surface, and in very localized spots could produce wind damage and power outages.

Stay tuned to Instant Weather NS for the latest on these developing strong storm cells, and be sure to check out the IW weather app, with free radar. You can track the storms on your phone using our radar.

More on these storms later tonight!

More Record Heat Continues For The weekend, Then A BIG Change!

Updated: October 3rd,2020 @ 2:30 AM

Valid: October 3rd, 2020 @ 4:00 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

It was another record breaking day for Temperatures as the continued late summer warmth persists to end the first week of October, Looks to go into the first weekend of October before finally giving up and going to near or below normal temperatures.

Here is a look at some records that were broken on Friday, October 2nd.

Merritt…….. Old record: 18.3 degrees C from 2016, New record: 25.1 degrees C. Average is 17 degrees C

Hope……….. Old record: 22.6 degrees C from 2004, New record: 25.1 degrees C. Average is 16 degrees C

Squamish… Old record: 24.1 degrees C from 1993, New record: 25.2 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Bella Coola. Old record: 23.6 degrees C from 1988, New record: 23.9 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Clinton……… Old record: 23.0 degrees C from 2003, New record: 23.7 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Bella Bella… Old record: 16.8 degrees C from 2016, New record: 21.8 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Prince Rupert Old record: 17.9 degrees C from 2017, New record: 20.2 degrees C. Average is 13 degrees C

Sandspit……. Old record: 15.7 degrees C from 2002, New record: 16.7 degrees C. Average is 13 degrees C

These are just a sample of many records broken on Friday, several towns as warm as 10 to 15 degrees above average. The hot spot in the province Friday was Princeton at 26 degrees C, sadly not a record as the record for Friday was a sizzling 29 degrees from 1975.

These are the max high temperatures from Yesterday (Friday), a small swath of temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range which is in red, but check out the orange, A very large swath of 20 to 25 degree temperatures which is not uncommon for early October but is at same time, not usual. Those warm temperatures even spread fairly far north of the province where records were also broken.

The Large ridge pumping up the very warm conditions will begin to start flattening out as early as Later today and will persist through the weekend, This will allow for some more unsettled weather and much cooler air to flow down. However the big change where we see some unsettled and very chilly air is not until we get into the latter part of next week towards Thanksgiving weekend and into Thanksgiving.

Even if it will be cooler, Temperatures look to still be almost 5 degrees above normal over the next 2 weeks with day time highs in the 15 to 20 range. Where as by near Thanksgiving, the Average high is between 10 and 15 degrees.

If you’re those kind of people who love this heat, wanting to keep enjoying it and still go to the beach or pool and get a tan, Then you still have the weekend to do so before it becomes a bit cool for the water and tanning.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy sets eyes on Newfoundland

Updated: September 22, 2020 @ 11PM

Valid: September 22, 2020 @ 11 PM

Forecasters: James Follette & Alannah Franks

What was once Hurricane Teddy is now a monster sized and very powerful Post-Tropical Cyclone is currently pummeling the Atlantic Canada with Tropical Storm conditions in Nova Scotia, PEI, New Brunswick and Southern Maine.

As of 9 PM, Tropical Storm conditions have started moving into Port-Aux Basques and St. Pierre.

The Track is expected to take it over Cape Breton and then stay just offshore of Western Newfoundland as a strong Post Tropical Storm.

Heavy flooding rain is expected over the Avalon and Burin Peninsula as well as all of Southern Newfoundland through Port-Aux Basques and up to Clarenville. the least rainfall will be in Northern and Western Newfoundland with 15 to 30 mm, Up to 75 mm can fall in Eastern Newfoundland and up to 50 mm in Southern.

As for winds now, Winds will be the strongest in the West and the lightest in the East.

Winds in SW will be as high as 110 km/h, much of Western and Central will see Gusts up to 90 km/h, then further away, Northern Newfoundland, only up to 70 km/h and wide swath of up to 80 km/h for the Avalon, Burin Peninsula, Clarenville, Gander, GFW, Deer Lake, Corner Brook all will see Gusts up to 80 km/h.

With the Heavy rain and high winds, Scattered to widespread power outages is possible, The storm will arrive on Wednesday and last through Thursday.

Tropical Storm warnings are already in effect for South Western Newfoundland, large waves and rip currents, Storm surge is also expected.