Alberta Clipper To Bring a Quick Burst of Heavy Snow to Parts of Central and Eastern Ontario on Wednesday With Up to 12-20cm

An Alberta clipper is expected to bring heavy snow across northern parts of Southern Ontario starting Wednesday late morning and continuing through the afternoon. Those further south around Lake Ontario and Erie will see a mixed bag of light precipitation although the bulk of the precipitation will be focused on areas to the north of Lake Simcoe. A few millimetres of rain or some flurries depending on the temperature is what most can expect outside of the impacted region.

The worst conditions will be found stretching from Manitoulin Island through the North Bay/Parry Sound region and into parts of Eastern Ontario along the Quebec border. Rapid snowfall accumulation will be ongoing in this area during the afternoon hours likely having a significant impact on the evening commute. There is some disagreement on the exact track of this system with some of the latest data suggesting a slightly more southern track that could push the heavy snowfall potential as far south as Ottawa and Muskoka.

When it comes to the expected accumulation from this event, the highest totals will approach the 15cm mark and perhaps locally as much as 20cm stretching from Britt to Algonquin Park and into the Petawawa and Pembroke area. Other parts of Central Ontario into the Ottawa Valley including Muskoka, Parry Sound, Bancroft and Ottawa are currently on track for generally around 6 - 12cm.

Keep in mind that some spots may under or over-perform the forecast depending on the exact track. Outside of Central and Eastern Ontario, the expected accumulation will be minimal with just flurries in most areas or some rain showers for those that are above the freezing mark. The precipitation will begin to taper off late Wednesday as the system moves out of the province.

After reviewing how the last system played out in regards to bus cancellations, we're pretty confident in saying that there likely will be some bus cancellations with the threat of heavy snowfall that could impact the afternoon bus run. So we will be issuing a bus cancellation forecast very shortly to outline exactly which regions we think have the best shot at seeing a 'snow day' tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Another Wintery Blast on the Way for New Brunswick

Valid: Tuesday Feb 16, 2021

The latest blast of winter will arrive in the Province just before daybreak on Tuesday. Snow will quickly move across the entire Province. There will be a change over to ice pellets for southern and central nb late morning on Tuesday that will continue until around 6pm.

Southern NB will see the ice pellets change to freezing rain mid afternoon and could see accretion amounts of up to 10mm.

Snow will continue in Northern NB through the day and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Total accumulations by early Wednesday could be:

Southern NB 10-15 cm

Central NB 15-20 cm

Northern NB 20-30 cm

As always, be safe and let us know what you're experiencing in your area.

Storm chip probability: 60%

~ IWNB team,

Mike & Harry

Messy Winter Storm With Prolonged Freezing Rain Risk To Impact Nova Scotia on Tuesday

The same storm that has brought record-breaking winter weather to much of the US is expected to also affect Nova Scotia throughout the day on Tuesday. The current track of the low-pressure system puts it right across the central part of the province so unlike the last storm which we were on the cold side, this one will be quite a mess starting off with some snow, ice pellets and freezing rain early Tuesday and transitioning over to rain as temperatures climb above the freezing mark.

The freezing rain risk is expected to be more prolonged further to the north and inland from the shoreline. Ice accretion could range from 6 -12mm in the hardest-hit regions which may result in hazardous driving conditions and localized power outages. Conditions will improve later in the day on Tuesday as all areas switch over to rain with temperatures into the mid to upper single digits by the evening.

The first bands of precipitation associated with this system will reach the southern part of the province just before sunrise on Tuesday. For the Yarmouth and Shelburne area, a few hours of freezing rain is possible before a switch over to rain later in the morning. Areas further to the north including Digby, Greenwood/Kentville and Halifax will see some light snow to start off the morning with some ice pellets and freezing rain mixing in during the late morning and heavier freezing rain for a few hours.

Northern Nova Scotia such as Amherst, Antigonish and Cape Breton could see a few hours of heavy snow during the morning - especially in the Amherst area may accumulate with up to 10cm of snow. They will transition over to the heavy freezing rain during the mid the late afternoon hours. This freezing rain may be quite intense and times with very poor conditions through the northern part of the province.

By the evening, it will feel like a whole different season as warmer temperatures take over across the province and putting an end to any of the wintery precipitation. Some parts of the southern part of the province may even flirt with the double digits during the early overnight hours. Rain will continue overnight will slowly tapering off as the system moves out over Newfoundland.

Accumulation from the morning snow will fairly insignificant considering it will be washed away by the rain, but wouldn’t be surprised to see up to 5-10cm around the Amherst area. The rest of Nova Scotia will see a few centimetres max. The main story of this system will be the potential prolonged freezing rain risk through the northern part of the province. Between 4-8 hours of persistent heavy freezing rain could lead to a fairly significant ice build-up through Amherst, Truro, New Glasgow and Western Cape Breton. Maximum ice accretion of between 6-12mm and maybe locally up to 15mm is expected in this region.

Other areas away from the shoreline could see a few hours of heavy freezing rain with around 2-6mm of ice accretion - this may include the Halifax Matro region, but they’re right on the line. Southern parts of the province will see minimal freezing rain with predominantly just heavy rainfall. Speaking of rain, totals between 10-25mm are possible with locally up to 35mm in the Yarmouth region. Between 5-15mm of rain is possible after all the freezing rain for the rest of the province.

SNOWSTORM TIMELINE: Rapid Snowfall Accumulation & Blowing Snow Will Make Travel Near-Impossible Late Monday Into Tuesday Morning Across Southern Ontario

What will likely be the most notable snowstorm of the season so far is expected to bring a quick, but intense blast of heavy snow to almost all of Southern Ontario. Strong wind gusts in all regions between 40-70km/h will be a big concern and will likely lead to blowing snow and even localized blizzard accumulation. Travel should be avoided until later on Tuesday if possible. Total accumulation but the end of Tuesday will range from 20-35cm in the hardest-hit regions from Windsor/London through the GTA and into Eastern Ontario. For more details on the accumulation, please check out our complete forecast HERE.

Some light snow will continue to be found around the GTA during the noon hour as the first wave slowly tapers off. The second round will begin between 7-10 pm with the heaviest snow reaching the region during the late evening and continuing overnight into Tuesday morning. Hourly snowfall rates of between 3-6cm are possible during the 5-10 hour timeframe so the snow will rapidly accumulate. Snow will become lighter just after sunrise as the system exits the region.

For Southwestern Ontario, the snow will start a little earlier around the dinner hour as the first bands cross Lake Erie and make their way northward. Heavy snow with rates between 2-5cm will be found during the mid to late evening and into the early overnight hours. The heavy snow will transition over to lighter snow just before dawn on Tuesday with some lake effect snow lingering around the Owen Sound and Meaford area past the noon hour.

Eastern Ontario will be the last to see the first bands of the second round reach them which is expected to start around 9-11 pm for most. The light snow will turn to heavier snow especially near the Kingston and Cornwall area closer to the American border where intense snowfall rates near 5cm per hour could be found. These heavier bands will come to an end during the late morning with flurries continuing into the afternoon.

Central Ontario will be right on the edge with this system so areas further to the south and east will see the heavier snow for a longer time. Snow will start during the late evening and continue overnight into Tuesday morning. Again, some lake effect snow will linger around the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay into Tuesday afternoon.

Significant Freezing Rain Possible on Tuesday for Parts of Nova Scotia; Up to 10-15mm of Ice Accretion

A complex system currently bringing crippling winter weather to parts of the US Midwest including record-breaking snowfall to Oklahoma and Texas along with prolonged freezing rain through the Ohio Valley. This system will track up the East Coast bringing heavy snowfall to our friends in Ontario and New England. For Nova Scotia, the story will be a prolonged freezing rain threat on Tuesday.

This system will reach Nova Scotia overnight Monday starting with some light freezing drizzle across the southern part of the province. To the north, we will see mainly snow and ice pellets with freezing rain starting to mix in during the day on Tuesday. Precipitation will continue to build through the morning with a fairly heavy swath of freezing rain ongoing across much of the province during the afternoon. We will see this precipitation come to an end overnight into Wednesday morning as the system moves out over Newfoundland.

There is some uncertainty on the exact track of this system which would dictate where the freezing rain line would be located. Some areas along the shoreline particularly the Yarmouth region could switch over to regular rain as temperatures climb above the freezing mark.

Current indications suggest the worst conditions will be found further inland and to the north including Kentville, Truro, New Glasgow and Antigonish. They could see anywhere between 8-16 hours of icing with up to 10-15mm of ice accretion. Significant impact to travel along with power outages are expected in this area.

For Halifax, there is disagreement on how fast you'll switch over to regular rain. Some models show a fast switch over around the lunch hour on Tuesday while others have it lingering into the evening until the transition over to rain occurs. So the potential is there for this storm to be quite impactful, but it's not guaranteed.

We’ll continue to go over the latest data and post a more detailed forecast including timing sometime tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Impactful Snowstorm To Bring Up to 20-35cm of Snow to Southern Ontario Between Monday and Tuesday

What will likely be probably the biggest snowfall of the season for many regions across Southern Ontario is on the way between Monday and Tuesday. This same system is responsible for crippling snowfall and ice from Texas and all the way up into the Ohio Valley. The entire states of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas are under some form of winter advisory or warning! Here in Southern Ontario, For Southern Ontario, the snow will come in two separate waves starting with some light to moderate snow early Monday and throughout the day with the stronger second wave reaching our region late Monday evening. Very heavy snow and blowing snow is expected overnight into Tuesday morning. Travel should be avoided until later on Tuesday if possible. Widespread school bus cancellations across a wide swath of the region are almost certain which will further delay the return to in-person learning for some students.

We will actually see some lake effect snow around the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay overnight and early Monday morning in advance of this system. It doesn’t look particularly intense and is quite unorganized but locally 10-15cm can’t be ruled out around the Collingwood area even before we get started with the system. The first bands of system snow will spread across Southern Ontario by sunrise on Monday. The heaviest snow with the first round is expected to come down between 6-11 am on Monday with light snow continuing during the afternoon on Monday. Total accumulation by dinner time on Monday will range from 5-10cm just before the second round rolls into the region.

By Monday evening you might begin to think that this storm is amounting to nothing, but the worst is yet to come. Conditions will really begin the deteriorate late Monday evening and into the overnight hours as very heavy snow between 2-4cm per hour encompasses much of Southern Ontario. Strong wind gusts between 40-60km/h and stronger near the shorelines will likely result in blowing snow and localized blizzard-like conditions. Travel during this time will likely become almost impossible with near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation. If you do have to drive somewhere on Tuesday be sure to leave plenty of time to get to your destination and drive according to the conditions. The later in the day you can delay your trip the better as that will give time for the roads to be cleaned up. Snow will taper off around the noon hour although flurries and some drifting snow will continue to be an issue through the afternoon on Tuesday.

When we combine the accumulation from both rounds, we’re looking at widespread snowfall totals between 15-30cm across much of Southern Ontario by the end of Tuesday. A few localized pockets of between 30-40cm might be found south of Georgian Bay and through the Hamilton/Niagara region. Eastern Ontario will also see similar snow totals between 15-30cm with maybe near 35cm for the Kingston area. Areas to the north through Central Ontario and into Northeastern Ontario will see less snow from this system ranging from 10-20cm near Lake Simcoe and less than 10cm to the north of Parry Sound.

It’s important to note the factor of snow ratios that could affect the total accumulation we see from this system. In general, colder temperatures lead to more snow accumulation with the same amount of precipitation (we’re oversimplifying it here but it’s not important to get in the scientific details for this forecast). If temperatures were closer to the freezing mark with this system we’d be looking at accumulation closer to 10-20cm instead of the 20-35cm that we’re forecasting due to the colder temperatures. This is why some forecasts that use raw model data might be showing less snowfall accumulation than we’re forecasting. Regardless, we will see lots of snow - it looks like it will be closer to 25-30cm of light, fluffy snow instead of 10-15cm of heavy, wet snow.

Later in the week, we’re watching the potential for another system that could bring heavy snow to our region. It’s still several days in the future and lots could change. At this point, it appears to be following a similar track (maybe a little more to the west) with similar strength as the system on Monday/Tuesday. Slightly more moderate temperatures will result in lower snow ratios with this storm though so accumulation between 10-20cm is a fair bet at this point. We’ll continue to go over the latest data and keep you updated on that in the coming days. It’s certainly going to be a snowy week across Southern Ontario!

Intense Snow Squalls Return to Regions East of Georgian Bay Starting Sunday Afternoon; Up to 75cm Possible for Parts of Southern Muskoka by Monday

It has been quite an active weekend throughout parts of the traditional snowbelts in Southern Ontario. Snow squalls from Friday into Saturday brought significant snowfall accumulation to the Parry Sound and Northern Muskoka region with localized reports of over 50cm in some areas. After a short reprieve early Sunday, the lake effect activity will return to the Bruce Peninsula and regions east of Georgian Bay yet again later Sunday continuing into Monday.

This time we expect one main squall to develop stretching from Tobermory across Georgian Bay and coming inland somewhere between MacTier and Port Severn. The squall will likely be more intense and focused compared to the multi-squall setup we saw on Friday and Saturday so the significant accumulation won’t be as widespread. Current data suggest a pocket along the Hwy 400 corridor including Bala and Port Carling could see over 50cm and perhaps as much as 75cm by the time the squalls move northward on Monday morning.

As of Sunday afternoon, we’re already seeing some lake effect snow off Georgian Bay and that is expected to further intensify and organize into a squall by the dinner hour. A brisk westerly to NNW wind will push the squall off Georgian Bay and into Southern Muskoka. Exactly how far this squall gets inland is unclear as some models indicate it could stay quite close to the shoreline. It should however reach far enough to cross Hwy 11 somewhere between Port Sydney and Washago. Very heavy snow along with the strong wind gusts will produce near-zero visibility making driving near impossible throughout the Muskoka Lakes, Bracebridge and Gravenhurst region. Some lake effect activity may also affect regions as far south as Midland and Coldwater. We expect the worst conditions from Sunday evening and overnight into the predawn hours on Monday. Conditions will improve later on Monday morning as the squalls weaken and lift to the north towards Parry Sound. Areas north of Parry Sound will see some more snow during the afternoon on Monday including Britt, Burk’s Falls and Sundridge but the lake effect snow isn’t expected to be that strong.

The usual disclaimer exists with this lake effect event where the accumulation can vary significantly even within just a few kilometres due to how narrow and focused these squalls are expected to be. With that being said, confidence is fairly high on the location of the band so we should be able to accurately pinpoint the hardest hit regions with some accuracy. A zone that includes the Bala and Port Carling (Western Muskoka Lakes) appears to be in the most intense portion of the squall throughout the evening and overnight hours. As a result, accumulation between 50-75cm is possible right along the Georgian Bay shoreline including the Hwy 400 corridor roughly between Port Severn and just south of Parry Sound.

Further inland, the Bracebridge and Gravenhurst area will see between 20-40cm of accumulation with locally as much as 50cm (particularly for Gravenhurst). Northern Simcoe County along with Central Muskoka and Northern Kawartha Lakes have the potential for between 10-25cm of snowfall accumulation. For the Bruce Peninsula, we’re looking at around 10-20cm for Wiarton and up to 30cm for the Northern Bruce Peninsula. All other areas around Georgian Bay will see between 5-10cm and the rest of Southern Ontario should just see a few lake effect flurries if anything at all.

Significant Blizzard To Bring Up to 50cm of Snow and 90+km/h Wind Gusts to Nova Scotia Late Sunday Into Monday

A strengthening low-pressure system is set to track up the East Coast bringing widespread snowfall between 10-20cm on Sunday to the same areas that got pummeled by the powerful Nor’easter earlier in the week like New York and New England. This same system will also take aim at Nova Scotia with the system intensifying as it tracks just off the coast. As a result, we expect Nova Scotia to be on the cold side of this system and the predominant precipitation type will be snow. There might be some mixing along the coast with ice pellets and some freezing rain although that is very dependent on the system tracking closer to the coast and at the moment it looks unlikely.

Most of the precipitation will come down within a 12 hours timeframe across Nova Scotia mainly overnight into Monday morning. Rapid snowfall accumulation is expected during this time with hourly snowfall rates exceeding 5cm. Combined with strong wind gusts over 90km/h, this will likely create very hazardous conditions with near-zero visibility and drifting snow.

The first bands of precipitation will each the Yarmouth and Liverpool area starting around the dinner hour on Sunday and spreading northward throughout the evening. We expect the worst conditions will be found around midnight and into early Monday morning. The snow will begin to taper off from the south just after sunrise and continuing to move out throughout the day on Monday. Cape Breton will be the last to clear out with flurries lingering into the early evening on Monday. Everything should be done by the end of Monday as the system moves off into Newfoundland.

When it comes to total snowfall accumulation from this storm, we’re looking at widespread accumulation ranging from 20-40cm with locally up to 50cm. For those further inland, less precipitation is expected so generally, this would lead to lower snow totals, but colder temperatures (-1 to -2°C compared to -3 to -4°C inland) will also be found in these same areas. As a result, the slightly colder temperatures would mean a higher snow ratio (the amount of snow created from equivalent liquid precipitation; a higher ratio implies more snow for the same amount of precipitation) so further inland locations such as Kentville, Truro and New Glasgow could actually see between 30-50cm of accumulation. This may change should the system tracks further offshore than expected although it’s what the data currently shows.

The heavy snowfall will also be accompanied by very strong wind gusts, especially along the coast. Wind gusts in those areas including locations such as Liverpool, Halifax and Sydney could exceed 90km/h mainly during the early morning hours on Monday. Further inland, the wind will be weaker although gusts will still peak at over 70km/h (over 80km/h for Cape Breton). This will likely create blizzard conditions for several hours particularly closer to the coast although it may extend quite far inland with the potential for blowing snow for the rest of the province that doesn’t quite reach blizzard criteria. The strong wind gusts will end later in the morning on Monday around the noon hour, but gusts between 60-80km/h may continue across Cape Breton into Tuesday.

If you can, just stay home starting Sunday evening until midday Monday when conditions should begin to improve. Roads throughout the province will be snow-covered with strong wind gusts causing near-zero visibility so travel will become near impossible at the height of this storm. Stay safe!

Another Blast of Winter

Valid Feb 7, 2021

It looks like Mother Nature has something planned for the Superbowl after party.

TIMING:

Snow will begin sometime after 8pm and will quickly make its way across the entire province. It will continue to snow throughout the night with it tapering to flurries on Monday near noon.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

Once again, the models do not totally agree on this system and any slight shift in the low could change the predicted snowfall accumulations below.

Prince County – 5-15 cm

Queens County – 10-20 cm

Kings County – 20-30 cm

WIND: Winds will be a factor with this system. Many areas of the Province will experience blowing and drifting snow.

Wind will start increasing near midnight Sunday night and continue until late Monday. Wind will be 30-40 km/h with gusts of 50-60 km/h early Monday into mid day with higher wind gusts in Kings County possible.

TEMPERATURE: Temperatures will drop throughout the day Monday. Starting the day around -2 to -4C and ending the day around -7 to -10C.

With the increasing winds and snow, visibility will be diminished, mostly in Kings and Queens counties. Please exercise caution on the roads throughout the evening hours of Tuesday.

Snowfall or Blizzard warnings may still be issued as the storm system moves closer to the Province.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas.

Storm chip Probability: 100% (only because you should have them on hand for the Superbowl).

PEIBW Team (Mike S, Harry S)

First Round of Snow Squalls To Bring Hazardous Conditions This Weekend With Up to 30–50cm of Snow for Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound & Muskoka; 10–20cm of Snow Possible for Niagara and Kingston

After a short warm-up this morning which brought temperatures across Southern Ontario near or slightly above the freezing mark, the cold air has returned pushing temperatures back down to fell below the freezing mark. As a result, we’re already seeing some lake effect snow develop off the Great Lakes this afternoon and the lake effect activity is only expected to further intensify later this evening and lasting into Saturday. With a predominately westerly to southwesterly wind direction, we’ll see the squalls develop off Lake Huron, cutting across the Bruce Peninsula and come inland to affect regions northeast and east of Georgian Bay.

This would put locations including Tobermory, Wiarton, Parry Sound, Britt, Sundridge and Huntsville in the target zone for the most intense squalls. By the end of Saturday, those locations can expect snowfall accumulation between 30-50cm with locally higher amounts. The wind direction is expected to become more westerly throughout the day on Saturday which will likely push the squalls further south stretching from Owen Sound and into Southern Muskoka such as Bracebridge and Gravenhurst.

Strong wind gusts up to 70km/h will also present a challenge due to blowing snow and near-zero visibility so travel will be likely near impossible especially through the Hwy 400 corridor between Port Severn & Sudbury along with the Hwy 11 corridor between Gravenhurst and North Bay. Avoid travel in the affected regions if possible until at least late Saturday when the squalls are expected to weaken somewhat.

When it comes to the potential accumulation, a zone encompassing the Bruce Peninsula and regions along the northeastern Georgian Bay shoreline could see as much as 30-50cm. Although this is dependent on where the squalls set up and if they lock into a particular area for an extended period of time. Further inland and southward into Southern Muskoka, locations such as Saugeen Shores, Owen Sound, Meaford. Port Carling, Bracebridge, Gravenhurst can expected total snowfall accumulation between 20-30cm. Again, the potential is there for some locations to massively underperform or overperform the forecast given how narrow and focused the bands will be. Other regions east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron can expect between 5-15cm of fresh snowfall accumulation. These squalls may stretch quite far inland and perhaps reaching as far as Quebec so wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pembroke/Petawawa area pick up close to 10cm by the end of Saturday.

Strong snow squalls are also expected to develop off Lake Ontario and Erie starting Friday evening and mainly affecting locations south of the border. However, there are indications that the squalls could start out in Canada with a southwesterly wind direction and clip the southeastern tip of the Niagara region along with Prince Edward County and the Kingston area. Locations such as Port Colborne, Fort Erie, Prince Edward County and Kingston could see several hours of heavy snowfall overnight before the squalls shift south of the border early Saturday morning. The squalls may return periodically throughout Saturday depending on the wind direction. Total snowfall accumulation could range from 10-20cm in the most intense squalls but some locations could easily exceed that should the squalls be further north than expected.

We’ll see the lake effect activity come to an end late Saturday as an approaching system from Michigan temporarily shuts off the lake effect snow machine. This system isn’t expected to bring much in terms of snowfall with maybe at most 5cm during the day on Sunday. More snow squalls will be on the way for the next week starting with another round developing late Sunday and continuing into Monday. Similar snowfall totals are possible for the second round although the exact wind direction is still unclear and looks like it may be more of a westerly to northwesterly flow. This would target parts of Northern Simcoe County (Midland, Orillia etc.) and Southern Muskoka (Bracebridge, Gravenhurst etc.) with the heaviest snowfall. As we’ve mentioned, some parts of snowbelts are on track to see up to 100cm of snow by the end of the week with several waves of intense snow squalls over the next 7 days. Additional forecasts will be posted in the coming days so stay tuned!

Arctic Air Returns to Southern Ontario as a Potential Snow Squall Outbreak Looms for Parts of the Snowbelts; Up to 100cm Possible in Some Areas Starting Saturday Through Next Week

Disclaimer: This is a very preliminary forecast and should only serve as a rough idea of the potential impacts. The exact accumulation will depend on wind direction and the strength of the snow squalls. Check back for more detailed and precise forecasts in the coming days.

A significant cool down is on the way for much of Central and Eastern Canada over the next week and Southern Ontario will definitely not be spared from the colder temperatures. For our friends out in the Prairies, this cold spell could bring potentially near record-breaking temperatures with the air temperature near -40°C and wind chills making it feel like -50°C! While we won’t come anywhere near those temperatures, it will still be quite cold compared to what we’ve become accustomed to this winter - overnight lows will be regularly around -10°C to -20°C perhaps as low as -25°C in some of the more northern regions.

Unlike those out in the west, we also have to deal with the Great Lakes which are still mostly wide-open and prime for lake effect snow activity with the right ingredients. Those ingredients are expected to come together beginning Friday evening with temperatures plummeting to well below the freezing mark combined with strong southwesterly to westerly winds. Intense snow squalls should develop late Friday evening off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron curing across the Bruce Peninsula and over Georgian Bay before coming back inland east of Georgian Bay. The hardest-hit locations will include Tobermory, Wiarton, Owen Sound, Parry Sound and northern parts of Muskoka. Combined with the system on Friday, accumulation over the next 3 days could approach 50cm particularly around the Parry Sound area and the Bruce Peninsula.

The squalls will be quite strong at times especially during the day on Sunday bringing near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation with hourly snow rates reaching 5-10cm in the strongest part of the bands. We may also see some squalls off Lake Ontario and Erie drift far enough northward to affect locations like Port Colborne, Fort Erie, Prince Edward County and Kingston during the evening on Friday. The Lake Ontario and Erie squalls will shift back south of the border overnight into Saturday morning. Total accumulation in this area will range from 10-20cm with locally higher amounts depending on how quickly the squalls move back stateside. It appears that all of the squalls will weaken somewhat later Saturday into Sunday as a weak system approaches from the west. This system won’t bring much in terms of snowfall but will temporarily shut off the lake effect snow until Sunday evening.

Several more rounds of squalls are expected from Sunday evening through Monday evening and then again during the middle of next week continuing until next weekend. Current data suggests it will be a predominately westerly to southwesterly flow so regions east of Georgian Bay along with the Grey-Bruce region will continue to pile on at least 15-30cm of snow with each round and perhaps more in localized spots. With 3-4 rounds of squalls expected over the next week, some areas could easily come close or even exceed 100cm (or a meter) of snow by the end of the week.

As we’ve said, this won’t come all on one day and is spread over 7 days so impacts won’t be as significant compared to a shorter timeframe. Regardless, travel will be likely near impossible through the affected regions within the snowbelts at times over the next week so consider avoiding any travel if possible. Be prepared for sudden whiteouts and snow-covered roads with the intense snow rates that can be found in some of these squalls. Keep in mind this is still several days away and should the wind direction change then it will shift the heaviest snowfall accumulation into other areas. We’ll have more details as we get closer and issue a forecast for each lake effect event separately. This forecast is just a ‘preview’ of what could be coming over the next week.

Stay tuned for our detailed forecast on the first round of snow squalls beginning Friday evening and continuing through the weekend. It should be posted by Friday afternoon.

Widespread Snowfall With Strong Winds and Frigid Temperatures on the Way for Southern Ontario; Up to 6-12cm Possible Between Thursday and Friday

A Colorado Low is expected to impact Southern Ontario beginning Thursday evening bringing with it the threat of widespread accumulating snowfall to some parts of the region. General snowfall accumulation ranging from 6-12cm is expected by the end of Friday. Lower amounts are expected around Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline due to some rain mixing in as temperatures temporarily rising above the freezing mark early Friday morning. We will also see strong wind gusts develop early Friday morning particularly around the Georgian Bay and Lake Huron shoreline reaching as high as 60-80km/h. Blowing snow and reduced visibility is possible throughout the day on Friday.

This system will also serve as a preview of what will dominate the weather story across Southern Ontario the next week starting with bone-chilling Arctic air flowing in behind the system as it moves out by late Friday into Saturday. Very cold temperatures combined with the Great Lakes that are still mostly ice-free will provide the optimal environment for snow squalls to impact the typical snowbelts starting Saturday morning. Current indications suggest these squalls could be quite prolonged and could last all the way into the middle of next week.

The precipitation associated with this Colorado Low will start to enter the province from Michigan sometime late Thursday evening just before midnight. As is usual, Windsor and Sarnia will be the first to be affected which is expected to come down as mainly snow although some data suggest some brief freezing rain could also occur. Precipitation will continue on its eastward trek encompassing all of Southern Ontario south and east of Lake Simcoe around midnight with snowfall continuing throughout predawn on Friday.

As mentioned, temperatures will be very close to the freezing mark as the system ushers in some warmer air just for Friday morning. So some areas mainly through the GTA and Niagra region may see some rain mix in which would reduce the potential snowfall accumulation. This system will also be weakening as it moves across Southern Ontario so by the time it reaches Eastern Ontario around sunrise of Friday, it will mostly be just light snow or flurries. For Southwestern Ontario into the GTA, we’ll see the snow start to taper off late Friday morning with it linger through Central and Eastern Ontario until around the lunch hour. The worst conditions will be found early Friday morning where strong wind gusts could result in some blowing snow and drifting snow. Be sure to leave plenty of time for your commute on Friday, but major impacts like school bus cancellations aren’t expected at this time.

Most areas throughout Southern Ontario will end up with total accumulation between 6-12cm and a few localized pockets picking up as much as 15cm. However, there are a few exceptions such as along the Quebec border, the GTA/Niagara region and around Georgian Bay which will likely not reach the 6cm mark due to the lack of moisture or rain mixing in. Those areas can expect around 2-6cm although those right near the lakeshore may even struggle to get up to 2cm if it comes down as mostly rain.

In the wake of the system, we’ll see temperatures plunge well below the freezing mark overnight Friday setting the stage for a very cold weekend. Many areas will see lows over the weekend flirt with the -20°C mark especially on Sunday and into next week. Extremely cold wind chills will likely be found on several mornings making it feel like below -30°C.

This will all set the stage for what could be a pretty prolific snow squall outbreak off the Great Lakes beginning on Saturday. The threat for squalls will continue on and off all next week as well with the current data pointing to a consistent southwesterly and westerly flow during this time. This would mean areas east of Georgian Bay (Muskoka, Parry Sound) along with northern sections of Grey-Bruce counties will likely be the hardest hit from these squalls. Snow totals this weekend and all next week could exceed 75-100cm in some of these areas although that may change and it depends on if the squalls lock in for a prolonged time. Squalls off Lake Ontario and Erie will mostly affect Upstate New York but with a southwesterly flow, they may drift far enough north to affect the Niagara and Kingston region at times. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some of those areas pick up 10-25cm of snow over the next 5 days.

Of course, the lake effect snow event is still several days away and there’s still a lot of details to work out so this is subject to change. We’ll have a more precise forecast in the coming days including forecast maps but we thought it was significant enough to give a heads up so you can plan accordingly.

Wintry Blast to Hit PEI

Valid: Monday Feb 1, 2021

Wintry Blast to hit PEI

The one thing we know for sure is that the system we will see on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning is going to be a messy one.

TIMING:

Snow will begin around noon on Tuesday across the Island and should be all down by early evening. This is where the mess begins. Snow will change over to ice pellets around 5-6 pm and some areas around Kensington may see some freezing rain for a brief period during the change over. Rain will quickly set in across the province in the early evening and will continue until Wednesday morning.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

The models are still not in total agreement, but what we can see at this time is the following accumulation amounts. Higher snow accumulation areas will be in Prince County.

Snow

Prince County – 25-35 cm

Queens County – 10-20 cm

Kings County – 5-15 cm

Ice Pellets

Prince County – 1 cm

Queens County – 1 cm

Kings County – 1-2 cm

Rain

Prince County – 15-20 mm

Queens County – 15-20 mm

Kings County – 20-25 mm

WIND: Winds will be a factor with this system. Many areas of the Province will experience blowing and drifting snow.

Wind will start increasing early afternoon on Tuesday and diminish overnight into Wednesday morning. Mid afternoon when the snow is coming down, the province should see winds of 40-50 km/h. Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h can be expected in the late evening hours of Tuesday until just after midnight.

TEMPERATURE: We will start the day across the province at around -5 to -7 C. We will see a gradual warming across the province from East to West starting mid afternoon and by early evening hours the entire province should be experiencing temperatures around +2 C. The warmup will continue overnight and by Wednesday morning we could be waking up to temperatures near +5 to +7 C.

With the increasing winds and snow, visibility will be diminished in areas during the mid afternoon to suppertime area. Please exercise caution on the roads throughout the evening hours of Tuesday.

If you want to clear your driveways and sidewalks, you are going to want to get that done before the rain starts in the early evening (around 8pm).

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas.

Storm chip Probability: 40%

PEIBW Team (Mike S, Harry S)

Groundhog Day Storm

Valid Monday Feb 1, 2021

It's looking unlikely that the Ground Hog will see his shadow tomorrow, as there's a winter storm on the way. So, if the groundhog sees his shadow it's 6 more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, it's only a month and a half? haha

This system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to New Brunswick. It's likely to get messy.

Early Tuesday morning, snow will begin in the Southwest corner of the province, spreading Northeast. This snow could be heavy at times and mixed with the wind, there could be some blowing and drifting. This would reduce visibility and make driving more difficult. Snow amounts are likely to be a general 10-20cm throughout the province, with 30cm or more possible in the Northeast corner.

Through the afternoon, snow in the southeast will gradually start to switch over to ice pellets and/or a little freezing rain, as it transitions to rain. While rainfall with this system could be significant, the higher amounts (10-30mm) are possible near the Fundy shore.

Wind could also be an issue with this system. Winds are likely to be 20-40km/h with gusts from 50 to possibly 90km/h at times near the Fundy shore.

This system should be gone by early Wednesday morning.

As always, be safe and let us know what you're experiencing in your area.

Storm chip probability: 40%

~ IWNB team,

Mike & Harry

Bone-Chilling Temperatures and Snow Squalls Around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay for the End of January; Up to 30cm of Snow Possible Between Thursday and Friday

After some parts of the snowbelts got pounded with significant snowfall accumulation last week, yet another round of snow squalls is expected to develop Thursday evening and linger into Friday. This time the squalls won’t be as intense or prolonged so it’s unlikely we’ll see totals near 50cm like last time. The target zone of these squalls will be along the southeastern shoreline of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay with accumulation between 20-30cm in the hardest-hit areas by the end of Friday. For the rest of Southern Ontario, we’ll see what is likely the coldest air of the season so far with morning lows near -20°C and the wind chill making it feel close to -30°C both on Friday and Saturday morning.

Some lake effect snow has already developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as of Thursday afternoon and the bands are only expected to become more organized and intense later tonight and into early Friday morning. A particularly strong band is expected to set up stretching from somewhere between Point Clark and Goderich stretching as far inland as Stratford. This band will sink southward later Friday morning and affect areas just to the northeast of London. It will linger throughout the day on Friday before weakening around the dinner hours.

Those closest to Lake Huron including Goderich, Wingham, Stratford, Exeter and Strathroy have the potential to see around 20-30cm of snowfall accumulation with locally over 30cm by the end of Friday. As with every lake effect event, note that not everyone will see these significant amounts and it’s quite hard to pinpoint exactly how much an area could see. Outside of this region, locations such as London, Listowel, Hanover and Kincardine will see around 10-20cm of accumulation. All other areas will receive less than 10cm of snowfall accumulation from the lake effect snow.

Persistent lake effect snow is also expected around the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay affecting areas like Collingwood and Angus. A small pocket away from the shoreline south and southeast of Collingwood including Angus could pick up between 20-30cm. The squall may become intense at times and stretch across Hwy 400 into the Bradford and Newmarket area mainly during the early hours on Friday. This could deliver around 5-15cm of fresh snowfall accumulation in only a few hours by sunrise on Friday. The lake effect activity around Georgian Bay could persist well into Friday evening and perhaps even past the midnight hour although it will be mostly contained right along the shoreline.

Return to Winter Across Southern Ontario on Tuesday With Accumulating Snowfall Up to 6-12cm

It has been a slow start to the winter season overall with parts of the province only seeing the temperature dip to -10°C or colder for the first time this season in the last week. The first few weeks of 2021 have been no exception with very little in the way of accumulating snowfall or traditional winter-like weather. We have seen a few systems make their way through Central and Eastern Ontario along with some localized snow squall activity within the snow belts. For Southwestern Ontario and into the GTA, the last major snowfall was actually around Christmas. However, that is expected to change as we head into Tuesday with an approaching system that will bring light to moderate snowfall to a wide swath of Southern Ontario. The precipitation won’t be overly intense and it will taper off by early Wednesday so significant impacts aren’t expected with maybe as much as 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation.

We’ll start to see the first bands of snowfall enter the province from Michigan during the mid to late morning hours on Tuesday with Windsor and Sarnia first in line for the snow. The system will spread to the east throughout Tuesday reaching the GTA by the afternoon and Central/Eastern Ontario around the dinner hour. This will continue into the evening and past midnight before slowly clearing out from west to east during the early morning on Wednesday. By dawn on Wednesday, it should be all cleared out except for some flurries through Eastern Ontario

The heaviest accumulation from this system will stretch from Lake Huron through the GTA and into parts of Eastern Ontario. Widespread totals ranging from 6-12cm are expected although a few localized pockets particularly through the Western GTA and into the Dundalk highlands which may see totals near 15cm. Lesser amounts are on tap for the more northern section of Central Ontario where between 2-6cm of accumulation is possible. For areas near Lake Erie and into Extreme Southwestern Ontario like Windsor, there is some disagreement in the models on exactly how much snowfall could fall with some suggesting near 8-10cm while others show less than 4cm. For that reason, we’ve gone with 2-6cm although note that the overachieving potential is there.

After this system, the rest of the week should be fairly quiet but the very cold air will return later this week and especially over the weekend. This could turn back on the lake effect snow machine starting Friday which we’ll be closely monitoring.

Arctic Blast To Bring Intense Snow Squalls to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelts With Up to 50cm of Snow Possible by Saturday

We already got a rude awakening earlier this week with much colder temperatures and some lake effect snow through the snowbelts. That was only the beginning though as another wave of cold Arctic air is expected to push into our region during the day on Friday setting the stage for some strong snow squalls to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. The lake effect activity will actually begin during the late afternoon on Thursday into the evening hours with a westerly wind pushing heavy snow into the Southern Muskoka and Haliburton area.

This intense squall will deliver a few hours of rapid snowfall accumulation to regions like Port Carling, Bracebridge, Gravenhurst and Minden. Some areas will easily pick up the forecasted 10-20cm within the evening and early overnight hours of Thursday. The blast of cold air will invade the province early Friday morning resulting in a change in the wind direction and shifting the powerful squalls off Georgian Bay southward with an additional band developing off Lake Huron affecting parts of Huron, Perth, Grey and Bruce counties.

Snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will continue throughout the day on Friday with a particularly strong band somewhere between Kincardine and Saugeen Shores. The squall activity off Georgian Bay will be focused on the southeastern shoreline including Collingwood, Angus, Wasaga Beach and Barrie. Although the latest data seems to indicate it won’t be as organized as the squalls off Lake Huron so the snowfall rates will be lower.

Overnight Friday into Saturday morning we’ll see another change in the wind direction to a more northwesterly flow. This will cause the organized band near Kincardine to sink southward and bring heavy snow to areas just to the north of London. It may continue into the afternoon on Saturday before fading out as conditions become unfavourable for lake effect snow.

As far as accumulation, keep in mind that nailing down the exact location of these squalls is tricky and the accumulation will vary significantly depending on where they set up. With that being said, we believe there is a zone that includes Kincardine, Hanover, Mildmay and Minto that has the potential to see as much as 30-50cm of accumulation by the end of day Saturday. Localized amounts may even exceed 50cm should the squall lock into a particular location for an extended period of time. For other regions to the east of Lake Huron, we expect the general 15-30cm of accumulation over the next two days although not everyone will see that.

The lake effect activity off Georgian Bay will first focus on the Muskoka region late Thursday into Friday morning with between 10-20cm of accumulation possible by sunrise Friday. After the squall sinks southward it will bring a few hours of heavy snow to Northern Simcoe County before settling in around the Barrie/Collingwood area. Accumulation for Northern Simcoe County will be around 5-10cm while further south the total accumulation will be closer to 20-30cm. These squalls may stretch into parts of York Region and the Kawartha Lakes especially near Lake Simcoe which could see localized totals between 10-15cm.

We have only shown the affected regions on our map. The rest of Southern Ontario including Eastern Ontario and Extreme Southwestern Ontario will see a few flurries over the next few days with little to no accumulation.

Return to Winter for Central and Eastern Ontario With Up to 20cm of Snow Possible Throughout the Weekend

The story this winter has been how uneventful it has been for most of Southern Ontario. Aside from a few storms here and there, we haven’t really seen a significant winter storm or widespread lake effect snow events. That’s especially true for Eastern Ontario which has often landed on the warm side of the few systems we saw in December with little snowfall accumulation. But as we head into the end of January and the start of February, there is a pattern shift in the works and we’ll start to see the first changes this weekend with a system set to bring accumulating snowfall to Central and Eastern Ontario. For the snow lovers out there, you will be happy to hear that Eastern Ontario is in the bullseye for between 15-25cm throughout the Ottawa, Brockville, and Cornwall area by the end of the weekend.

We’re already seeing the first precipitation bands associated with this system moving into Southern Ontario. Currently, we’re seeing mostly rain through Southwestern Ontario and into the GTA around Lake Ontario. Later in the evening, this will transition over to some light to moderate wet snow away from the lakeshore with rainfall continuing near Lake Ontario. More intense precipitation bands will start to affect Eastern Ontario early Saturday morning bringing short bursts of very heavy snowfall rates of near 5cm per hour through the Ottawa area just before sunrise. Expect very bad road conditions during the morning hours of Saturday.

Persistent snowfall will continue from Georgian Bay and eastward into Eastern Ontario throughout the day on Saturday and even into Sunday. Although it will slowly taper off late Sunday morning. We could see some minor lake effect snow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Sunday as well providing a few centimeters of additional accumulation.

As we mentioned, the heaviest accumulation will be found in Eastern Ontario where we expect between 12-20cm by the end of the weekend and perhaps as much as 25cm in localized areas. For the rest of Central and Eastern Ontario, we’re looking at between 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation between the two days. The accumulation will drop for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA with between 2-6cm possible around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where lake effect activity on Sunday could add a few extra centimeters on top of the. system snow. Other areas can expect trace amounts including the GTA/Niagara region and into Southwestern Ontario.

For the rest of the week, we’re looking at very cold air flood into the province pushing temperatures to near or below -20°C for overnight lows several days this week. The cold temperatures appear to linger around for the rest of the month with the potential to cause some snow squall outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron with them being wide open. More details on that soon!.

UPDATED: Accumulating Snowfall To Start Off the New Year Across Southern Ontario Overnight Friday; Up to 20cm Possible in Eastern Ontario

For Southwestern Ontario, the year started on a wintery note as the first storm of 2021 brought a mixed bag of precipitation from snow to ice pellets and some freezing rain throughout the day on Friday. The same system that resulted in this messy weather is beginning to track further north across the region with heavy snow expected to affect Central and Eastern Ontario this evening lasting into Saturday morning. A particularly heavy band of snow could bring snowfall rates of 2-4cm per hour through the GTA and into Eastern Ontario predawn Saturday. Conditions will improve later in the morning on Saturday as the system moves out over Quebec.

The highest snowfall accumulation will be found in Eastern Ontario including Peterborough, Kingston, Renfrew, Brockville and the Ottawa Valley. This area has the potential to see final totals ranging from 12-20cm by Saturday afternoon with locally as much as 25cm. Other areas including much of Central Ontario (Orangeville, Barrie, Muskoka) into Kitchener/Waterloo and the northern GTA away from the lakeshore could see snowfall totals of between 6-12cm. As indicated on the map, part of this region will likely also see some ice pellets mixing in at times which may result in less snowfall accumulation than forecasted.

The rest of Southern Ontario excluding around the Lake Erie shoreline and into Northeastern Ontario can expect around 2-6cm of snowfall accumulation. Closer to the lakeshore within the GTA will switch over to rain overnight but will likely switch back over to wet snow early in the morning. Less than 2cm is expected into Extreme Southwestern Ontario like Windsor and the Niagara region with rain being the predominant precipitation type.

For the areas that are currently seeing the freezing rain, it will end later this evening as it transitions over to regular rain or some wet snow. Expect poor driving conditions across much of Southern Ontario particularly during the overnight hours and into predawn Saturday. If possible, just stay home or if you must go out then take your time and drive according to the conditions.

First Snowfall of 2021 Is on the Way

Valid: Saturday Jan 2, 2021 to Sunday Jan 3, 2021

Snow is coming

Looks like we are starting off 2021 with some snow in the forecast.

TIMING:

Snow will begin in the south end of the province just before daybreak on Saturday.  By noon, all areas of the province will see snow.  The snow should be all finished by early Sunday morning.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

The models are still not in total agreement, but what we can see at this time is the following accumulation amounts.  Higher accumulation areas will be the south side of the Province:

Along the Fundy shoreline from St Stephen/Grand Manan to Sackville and North to Oromocto could see 20-30cm

Central areas of the province from Woodstock to Renton could see 15-25cm

Northern parts of the province could see 10-20cm.

WIND:  Winds will not be a large factor with this system, however there may be areas of the Province that will experience blowing and drifting.

TEMPERATURE:   Temperatures will range from around -5 in the south to -10 in the North.

With the increasing winds and snow, visibility will be diminished in areas. Please exercise caution on the roads throughout Saturday.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas. 

Storm chip Probability:

Southern NB - 50% 

Central NB - 40%

Northern NB - 20%

IWNB Team (Mike S, Harry S)