Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday, August 11, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

The thunderstorm threat on Wednesday shifts to the east bringing the potential for severe storms to parts of Northeastern Ontario. These storms developing during the afternoon and evening could bring the risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. There is even the chance for one or two tornadoes especially along the Quebec border and north of Georgian Bay. The storm risk will come to an end by the late evening as the storms track into Quebec.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday, August 11, 2021

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Map Updated - Wed, Aug 11, 2021 (1:00PM)

Map Updated - Wed, Aug 11, 2021 (1:00PM)

Updated Forecast Discussion

After reviewing the latest data, we believe there is the potential for significant severe storms later this afternoon and into the evening for parts of Southern Ontario.

The strongest risk for storms exists along the Lake Huron shoreline and around Georgian Bay. This area could see wind gusts over 100km/h and maybe evening strong along with large hail and heavy rainfall. A few tornadoes may also be possible as the environment is certainly favourable for some rotating storms.

There is still some uncertainty on the exact storm mode which will determine the main risks associated with the storms. Some models are showing a squall line developing over Lake Huron with embedded pockets of destructive wind gusts as it cuts across Southern Ontario this evening. While other models are favouring more isolated cells which could bring some large hail and a tornado threat along with damaging wind gusts.

Either way, it looks like the weather could become quite dangerous later today. This is the day to be weather aware and make sure you have a plan in place should you need to seek shelter from severe weather. These storms will be moving quite fast so you may only have a few minutes to react.

Old Forecast Discussion

A very unsettled day is expected throughout Southern Ontario on Wednesday with the risk for some quite strong thunderstorms. The storms will come in multiple rounds starting with some in the morning and more later in the day through the afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty about the exact location of where these storms will develop so this forecast is more dependent on the environment and not everyone will see that severe weather.

Current indications suggest a line of storms may form over Lake Huron during the early to mid-morning and track through areas east of Lake Huron and into Central Ontario towards the later morning hours. The morning storms should remain below severe levels, but a few wind gusts near 90km/h can’t be ruled out. As we usually see with severe events with morning convection, they can either make or break the storm risk later in the day. It will be no different for Wednesday as if these morning storms don’t clear out until early in the afternoon then it might reduce the risk later in the day as daylight heating will have a shorter timeframe to build up. At this point it doesn’t look like this will be an issue though good to keep in mind that it’s not guaranteed.

A few isolated storms are expected to pop up through parts of Central Ontario (especially around Lake Simcoe and Georgian Bay) during the late afternoon. These storms could present all severe threats including large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. One or two tornadoes can’t be ruled out either anywhere north of a line from Kincardine through to Lake Simcoe and up into Renfrew. The strongest tornado risk is to the north of Georgian Bay in Northeastern Ontario along with the Muskoka, Simcoe County and Kawartha Lakes regions.

These isolated storms will develop ahead of a line of storms expected to strengthen over Northern Michigan as it tracks across Lake Huron by the evening. This line could bring another round of severe weather with the focus on damaging wind gusts towards the late evening following a similar track as the morning storms. There is also a storm risk down in Deep Southwestern Ontario as another line of storms tracks into the region from Michigan during the evening.

We'd like to thank our sponsor for this forecast; On Point Construction!

"We are always on time, and of course ON POINT! Don’t hesitate to give us a call, we are family-owned and operated. Fully licensed, insured, certified, with WSIB.

We strive to be more than just your "Regular Business". We like to call ourselves family, which means through each project you will be treated like family. When you're making a choice about your home and projects & most valuable assets, you want to be assured that you have trusted and chosen a company that will treat it as their own, valuable & reliable, financial aspects are understood & we strive to achieve budget demands as well as always, keeping close communication to ensure a positive & a healthy relationship from our family to yours.

Offering $300 discount on any roofing or concrete services, and a pre-paid $20 visa for any other work we complete for you."

Servicing Collingwood and surrounding area.

Call 705-305-0648 / 705-770-3324 or onpointconstruction174@gmail.com for more details.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday, August 10, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

There is the potential for some quite severe storms for parts of Northwestern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. The main risk zone includes Atikokan to Sioux Lookout, Armstrong, Fort Hope and Lansdown House. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h, large hail and heavy downpours. One or two tornadoes can’t be ruled out either with the strongest storms. Surrounding regions could see non-severe and a few isolated severe storms including Dryden and Geraldton. There is also an isolated severe risk for the North Bay region up into Temiskaming Shores. The storm risk will come to an end by midnight as the storms fizzle out.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday, August 10, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A very active weather day is expected across Southern Ontario on Tuesday with the risk of thunderstorms throughout the day. It will begin with some thunderstorms tracking into Southwestern Ontario from Michigan during the morning hours and track towards the GTA by late morning. Current data suggests these storms shouldn't be overly strong with mainly a non-severe threat including strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy downpours. There could be a very questionable severe risk with the morning storms, but it’s fairly unlikely at this point.

Another round of storms this time in the form of isolated pop-up cells are expected during the afternoon and evening hours mainly through Central and Eastern Ontario. A few storms could develop as far south as Grand Bend and track through the Niagara region. These storms will be quite isolated so not everyone will see them, but a few of them could reach severe levels. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts (90+ km/h) and large hail up to quarter or toonie size. As for the tornado risk, there isn’t a particular area of focus although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out somewhere in the isolated severe risk zone. Even if we don’t see a tornado, the conditions will be ideal for some funnel clouds with these storms and maybe even a landspout.

The storm risk should come to an end by the end of the evening on Tuesday.

We'd like to thank our sponsor for this forecast; On Point Construction!

"We are always on time, and of course ON POINT! Don’t hesitate to give us a call, we are family-owned and operated. Fully licenced, insured, certified, with WSIB.

We strive to be more than just your "Regular Business". We like to call ourselves family, which means through each project you will be treated like family. When you're making a choice about your home and projects & most valuable assets, you want to be assured that you have trusted and chosen a company that will treat it as their own, valuable & reliable, financial aspects are understood & we strive to achieve budget demands as well as always, keeping close communication to ensure a positive & a healthy relationship from our family to yours.

Offering $300 discount on any roofing or concrete services, and a pre-paid $20 visa for any other work we complete for you."

Servicing Collingwood and surrounding area.

Call 705-305-0648 / 705-770-3324 or onpointconstruction174@gmail.com for more details.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday, August 9, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to move through Northeastern Ontario during the late afternoon into the evening on Monday. These storms could be quite strong bringing strong wind gusts, moderate size hail and heavy rainfall. Although they should remain non-severe in most cases so we haven’t included an isolated severe risk zone on our map. An organized line of storms will also track into Northwestern Ontario from Manitoba late Monday and continuing overnight. It’s possible this line could pack some powerful wind gusts near 90km/h, but the timing of this event should mean most of the severe risk will stay over Manitoba.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday, August 9, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A few localized non-severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening on Monday through Southwestern Ontario and into parts of Central Ontario east of Georgian Bay. Any storm activity that does develop will be fairly isolated so not everyone will see them. The main risks with the storms include some strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy downpours. Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to linger through the overnight and Tuesday morning for some parts of the region.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, August 8, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Thunderstorms with an isolated severe risk are possible for areas to the north of Georgian Bay which has been covered in the outlook for Southern Ontario here. The rest of Northern Ontario isn’t expected to see any organized thunderstorm activity on Sunday.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, August 8, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A cluster of thunderstorms could develop over the northern part of Lake Huron and track into Southern and Northeastern Ontario later in the day on Sunday. The main risk zone that could see these storms extend from Bruce-Grey counties into areas around Georgian Bay. We’re also seeing a very questionable isolated severe risk for the Bruce Peninsula and the northern shoreline of Georgian Bay (Elliot Lake, Britt and Manitoulin Island) with some strong wind gusts and potential flash flooding. Non-severe thunderstorms could linger past the midnight hour and into early Monday morning although it should be mostly contained to regions around Georgian Bay.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Saturday, August 7, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Isolated pop-up storms are expected throughout the afternoon and evening on Saturday across Southern Ontario. A few of these storms could have the potential to reach severe levels mainly through Eastern and Central Ontario. The main risks will be strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy downpours with the storms moving quite slowly. We don’t expect much of a tornado risk with these storms, but there could be some funnel clouds associated with the storms. We’ll see the storms dissipate right after sunset as the daylight heating that was fueling them disappears.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Thursday, August 5, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected to track across parts of Northwestern and Northeastern Ontario during the day on Thursday. These storms will be quite widespread but should only pose a non-severe risk including strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy downpours. Thunderstorm activity may continue into the overnight hours and into Friday morning.