Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, December 8, 2021

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Snow squalls that are expected to affect the Bruce Peninsula and Parry Sound area starting early Wednesday will bring poor road conditions throughout the day. As a result, we will likely see some bus cancellations with a 75% chance for the Parry Sound region and 50% for the Bruce Peninsula and surrounding regions around Parry Sound. There is also the off chance that we see bus cancellations through the Kingston and Prince Edward County region where some heavy lake effect snow may cause whiteout conditions during the morning and afternoon so we’ve given them a 25% chance of a snow day. The rest of Southern Ontario is unlikely to see bus cancellations with less than 10% of a chance.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Wednesday, December 8, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

The snow squall threat returns to the snowbelt around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting Wednesday morning, but this time the focus will be on the Bruce Peninsula and into the region northeast of Georgian Bay. Organized lake effect snow and localized snow squalls will bring accumulating snow to locations such as Tobermory, Britt and Parry Sound with locally as much as 25cm by the end of Wednesday. Road conditions will be quite poor through the affected region especially during the morning and afternoon hours. The squalls should sink back southward by the dinner hour bringing a few hours of heavy snow to the Muskoka and Simcoe County region, however, accumulation will be limited due to the limited duration and disorganization.

The unusual part about this event will be that we may also see some heavy snow off Lake Ontario with the southwesterly flow pushing bands of snow into the Kingston and Brockville region. This will be primarily a concern during the morning and afternoon with general accumulation ranging from 5-15cm depending on how organized the lake effect activity can get. We may also see a few lake effect flurries through the Niagara region from Lake Erie, but accumulation will be very limited with maybe a few centimetres at most.

All snow squall activity will come to an end towards the end of the day. Lake effect flurries may linger in Thursday morning for those close to the shoreline of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Northern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Tuesday, December 7, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Snow squalls are expected to organize off the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron between Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie starting early Tuesday morning. The squalls will continue throughout the day where the worst conditions are likely to be found during the afternoon and evening as the squalls intensify into one strong squall setting up somewhere near Agawa Bay. In the strongest part of the squall, we could be looking at snowfall rates around 5-10cm per hour so rapid accumulation is likely. Travel will be significantly impacted between Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie especially along the Trans-Canada Hwy which may need to be shut down. Total accumulation may locally approach the 50cm mark in this region with general amounts between 15-30cm for Sault Ste. Marie and Wawa. The snow squall activity will weaken late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Tuesday, December 7, 2021

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Squalls have developed off the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay and are expected to continue overnight with intense snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility. This will have a significant impact on the road conditions during the morning hours which will likely result in some school bus cancellations in the hardest-hit regions. We have given Simcoe and parts of Grey-Bruce counties a 75% chance of a snow day as bus cancellations are quite likely, however, this area has had a mixed record when it comes to cancelling buses due to snow squall activity so we can’t give them a 90% chance. Surrounding regions including the rest of Grey-Bruce counties into Huron-Perth and over into regions east of Lake Simcoe has a 50/50 chance as there is the potential for some whiteout conditions during the morning hours.

The probability of a snow day will quickly diminish the further you are from Georgian Bay since this is a very localized event. In the Parry Sound-Muskoka region, we’ve decided to go with a 25% chance because while we aren’t expecting much in terms of accumulation tonight, the squall activity will drift northward later in the day. We suspect Environment Canada may issue a snow squall watch for the area by morning which could prompt cancellations. In addition to this, road conditions are still quite icy and the very cold temperatures moving in overnight won’t help.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Southern Ontario: Winter Weather Hazards Outlook for Monday, December 6 to Tuesday December 7, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay late Monday and continue into Tuesday. Significant snowfall accumulation is possible. See our snow squall forecast for more details on accumulation and timing.

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Monday, December 6 to Tuesday, December 7, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

After a brief warm-up during the early part of Monday, a cold front will sweep across the region during the afternoon and evening hours which will usher in colder air. This colder air will help restart the lake effect snow machine throughout the typical snowbelt around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting late Monday evening. The primary targets of these snow squalls will be the Bruce Penisula through Simcoe County and into parts of Kawartha Lakes.

Current indications suggest a fairly intense squall will set up from just north of Wiarton and come inland across Georgian Bay between Orillia and Barrie and could remain nearly stationary overnight and into Tuesday morning for over 12 hours. This band could stretch quite far inland making it as far east as Peterborough at times. Snow squall activity will continue throughout the day on Tuesday with an additional 5-15cm of snowfall accumulation expected. However, it will likely become a lot less organized as we go throughout the day so the majority of the accumulation will come Monday night into Tuesday morning. The snow squalls will drift northward towards the Parry Sound/Huntsville area late Tuesday as the wind direction shifts to a more southwesterly flow.

With hourly snowfall rates approaching 3-6cm, it will pile up quite quickly and wouldn’t be surprised to see a few locations come near 30-40cm by the end of Tuesday. There is even the potential for very localized totals up to 50cm as some models have shown, but this seems a little overdone in the model data. More general snowfall totals will range from 15-30cm throughout the region. Keep in mind that just because you’re in the heaviest accumulation zone doesn’t mean you will get it as snow squalls are a very localized event. We’ve tried our best to narrow it down as much as possible, but just a slight shift in the wind direction can dramatically change who sees 40cm and 0cm from this squall event. Travel conditions will likely be very hazardous throughout the affected region. If you can, avoid travel until later in the day on Tuesday when conditions will improve somewhat.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, December 6, 2021

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The first winter storm of the season has started to affect Southern Ontario with a wide range of precipitation on Sunday and is expected to continue into Monday. This includes the potential for accumulating snow for Northeastern Ontario and northern parts of Central Ontario along with some freezing rain/sleet for the rest of Central Ontario and into Eastern Ontario. As a result, the road conditions in the area will likely be quite treacherous and prompt some school bus cancellations for Monday morning. Predicting where the cancellations will occur is quite hard with this storm in particular due to the timing as it appears the changing over from snow/freezing rain to regular rain will occur for most areas overnight which should somewhat improve conditions.

We do believe that the North Bay, Sudbury and Parry Sound corridor is practically guaranteed a snow day on Monday based on the heavy snowfall accumulation overnight that will continue into the morning. Further south, a zone stretching from Muskoka through Haliburton/Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley will likely see cancellations so we’ve given them a 75% chance. However, as we said, this will be heavily dependent on road conditions rather than the current weather as the switch over to rain will have likely occurred several hours before the decision is made. So it’s possible that not everyone sees a snow/ice day in this area especially if the rain is able to clean off the road (even though rural roads tend to stay icy for quite some time).

The chance of a snow/ice day diminishes the further south you go where less wintery precipitation is expected or the switch over will occur late this evening which is unlikely to impact the morning commute with heavy rain throughout the night. Areas such as Simcoe County/Kawartha Lakes into the Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce ranges from a 25-50% chance of bus cancellations as there is a freezing rain threat tonight, but should be done well before morning. The rest of Southern Ontario is unlikely to see bus cancellations with mainly just rain from this system.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Snowstorm Takes Aim at Parts of Northern Ontario With Up to 15–25cm of Snow Between Sunday and Monday

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A snowstorm is set to bring heavy snowfall to Northern Ontario starting Sunday morning and lasting into Monday. While Southern Ontario will be dealing with a messy mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet and regular rain, Northern Ontario will be on the colder side of this system and see all snow from this storm. Expect hazardous driving conditions throughout Sunday so if possible you should consider waiting until conditions improve on Monday until doing any driving. Blowing snow may also be an issue with wind gusts between 40-70km/h so reduced visibility is possible.

Snow will start late Sunday morning and pick up in intensity throughout the day and into early Monday. The heaviest accumulation will include all of Northeastern Ontario and into the Thunder Bay region where between 15-25cm is possible. Lower amounts are expected as you go further to the northwest where there will be less moisture. The snow will taper off by early Monday afternoon as the system moves out over Quebec.