Northern Ontario: Winter Weather Hazards Outlook for Wednesday, January 5, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Another chilly start to the day is expected for Far Northern Ontario as you wake up on Wednesday with the air temperature between -30 and -35. When factoring in the wind gust, it will feel closer to -40 in some areas especially up towards Fort Severn and Winisk. Be sure to dress according to the temperature and limit outdoor activity. Cold-related dangers such as frostbite can take only a few minutes to occur with temperatures this cold. Strong wind gusts between 80-90km/h are expected during the day on Wednesday around the Lake Superior shoreline. They will weaken by the end of the day. Heavy snowfall will also continue for Northeastern Ontario on Wednesday. See our forecast here for more details on that.

Lake Enhanced System and Squalls To Bring Up to 25cm of Snow to Southern Ontario by Thursday; Strong Wind Gusts Possible on Wednesday

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It has been a fairly slow start to 2022 across Southern Ontario when it comes to active weather aside from the snow some areas got over the weekend. However, that is about to change as a system will drop through Southern Ontario starting Wednesday and be accompanied by some lake enhancement around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. The system will also bring some strong to damaging wind gusts during the day on Wednesday ranging from 60-80km/h inland and up to 90-95km/h for areas northeast of Lake Ontario and Erie. While this shouldn’t be overly significant compared to previous wind storms, it could still lead to some localized power outages especially for those in Prince Edward County and the Niagara region.

We expect the snow to start around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting Wednesday morning and occasionally bring light snow to areas outside of the snowbelt during the day on Wednesday. This system will be fairly lacking when it comes to moisture, but it will be helped by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where lake enhancement will boost totals. By the end of Wednesday, the system will have moved out of our region although lake effect snow will continue with a southwesterly flow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. We may even see some brief heavy snowfall through the Niagara region and Prince Edward County from the lakes late Wednesday and into Thursday. Lake effect snow will linger into Thursday morning and afternoon mainly around Lake Huron.

The accumulation with this system will be highly variable due to the lake enhancement factor which tends to result in highly localized significant snowfall totals while others see barely anything. At this point, we believe locations east of Lake Huron and up along the northeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay could see up to 25cm of snow by Thursday. We want to make it clear that not everyone will see 25cm in that zone. This will be a combination of lake enhancement from the system on Wednesday and snow squalls overnight into Thursday. It’s quite possible that many areas miss out on the lake effect activity and only see around 5cm of accumulation since there’s a lot of factors at play with this event that needs to align.

Further inland to the east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, we’re looking at up to 15cm of snow by the end of Thursday. This also includes the Niagara and Prince Edward County regions that could see a quick 5-10cm from lake effect snow late Wednesday. The rest of Southern Ontario can expect up to 5cm with mainly just occasional light snow or flurries over the next 2 days, but nothing too persistent.

Strong wind gusts will develop during the day on Wednesday and continue into the evening. The strongest gusts will be found along the northeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. This includes Port Colborne, Fort Erie and Prince Edward County where gusts may approach or exceed the 90km/h mark. The rest of the shoreline can expect gusts ranging from 70-90km/h including the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands. Due to the wind coming out of the southwest, we don’t expect the Lake Huron shoreline to be significantly affected with gusts ranging from 70-85km/h. The gusts will be slightly weaker as we go further inland with most locations seeing 60-75km/h wind gusts. Those in Central Ontario away from Georgian Bay will experience gusts below 60km/h.

Northern Ontario: Winter Weather Hazards Outlook for Wednesday, January 5, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Strong to damaging wind gusts are expected to develop around Lake Superior early Wednesday. There will also be some extremely cold temperatures further north with the temperature near -30°C for some areas. A forecast will be issued on Tuesday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Wednesday, January 5, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Heavy snowfall is possible east of Lake Huron and around Georgian Bay on Wednesday due to a combination of a system to our north and lake effect snow. It is unclear exactly how much snow is possible along with who will be affected. More details on Tuesday.

Southern Ontario: Winter Weather Hazards Outlook for Wednesday, January 5, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Strong to damaging wind gusts are possible through parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday. However, it is unclear how strong they will be and the hardest-hit areas. A wind gust forecast will be issued on Tuesday once we have more information.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Tuesday, January 4 - Wednesday, January 5, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A strengthening low-pressure system is expected to track into Northern Ontario late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. This system will bring the potential for widespread accumulating snowfall through the lower part of Northern Ontario with up to 20-30cm of accumulation by the end of Wednesday. In addition to the snow, we are also expecting some fairly strong winds to be associated with this system particularly around the shoreline of Lake Superior. The strongest gusts will occur during the overnight and into Wednesday morning which will collide with the heavy snowfall and likely result in blowing snow or even localized blizzard conditions.

Snowfall is expected to start sometime Tuesday afternoon with those around the Manitoba border seeing the first bands of precipitation. By the evening, the snow will extend across the region from Kenora to Cochrane. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north the precipitation will go and there will be a very tight gradient between who sees the 20-30cm of snow and those who see just a few flurries. We believe the cut-off will be somewhere north of a line from Dryden to Kapuskasing, but this may fluctuate as we get closer so keep in mind that the forecast might be a little more tricky in those areas.

Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue overnight across the region and linger into Wednesday morning. Again, we expect the worst condition will be found during the overnight hour as the heavy snow combines with the strong wind gusts to produce near-zero visibility on the roads. We should begin to see the snow tapper off and conditions improve starting just after sunrise on Wednesday for those in Northwestern Ontario. While Northeastern Ontario should expect to see persistent snowfall throughout the day on Wednesday with it moving out during the evening.

In terms of accumulation, a fairly expensive zone around Lake Superior from Thunder Bay and into Northeastern Ontario including Wawa, Chapleau and Timmins could pick up between 20-30cm of snow by the end of the system. There is the potential that a few locations may even exceed the 30cm mark, but it’s questionable and not all of the models agree on this. For the rest of Northeastern Ontario (Sudbury, Elliot Lake, Sault Ste. Marrie etc.) along with those in Kenora and Fort Frances, we’re looking at snowfall totals around 12-20cm by the end of Wednesday. As we mentioned, the gradient with the expected snowfall is quite tight so the snowfall totals will decrease substantially the further north you go as shown on our map.

Strong and potentially damaging wind gusts are possible through areas around Lake Superior. We may see gusts approach the 90km/h mark or even exceed it close to the shoreline. This is primarily during the early part of Wednesday but could continue throughout the day for those along the eastern shoreline of Lake Superior.

Northern Ontario: Winter Weather Hazards Outlook for Tuesday, January 4, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Extreme cold temperatures are expected to invade Far Northern Ontario on Tuesday with the air temperatures dipping to below -30°C and the wind chill making it feel near or below -40°C (especially up around Fort Severn and Winisk which may come near -45°C). The coldest air is expected during the morning, but it will still be quite chilly throughout the day as well with high temperatures still in the -20s. Similar cold temperatures will be found overnight and during the morning on Wednesday as well. Be sure to dress according to the temperature and limit outdoor activity. Cold-related dangers such as frostbite can take only a few minutes to occur with temperatures this cold.