Significant Winter Storm Expected for the Maritimes for the First Weekend of Spring
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We’re approaching the first weekend of spring and what better way to celebrate than with an intense winter storm that could dump over 50cm of snow across parts of Northern and Central New Brunswick.
There is still some uncertainty in the track of this storm between major weather models, with some favouring a northern path that would bring 30+cm of snow to Grand Falls, Woodstock, Miramichi, and Bathurst; while others shift the heavy snow further south to have a greater impact on Fredericton, Moncton and into Saint John. This southern shift would also lead to 15-30cm across Prince Edward Island and into Northern Nova Scotia. In our preliminary snowfall map, we’ve leaned towards the northern track as there is a bit more consensus among the models for this track at this point. It is likely that some changes will be made to this map as we draw closer to the weekend.
The storm will move through Southern Ontario on Friday and will intensify upon crossing into Upstate New York, a trend that is expected to continue through New England and into the Maritimes. The snow will start making its way into the region from the southwest beginning mid-morning Saturday in Charlotte and York Counties and it will continue to spread across the province and into Prince Edward Island throughout the afternoon. Heavier snow is expected to follow this initial band starting in the late afternoon and early evening which will continue until Sunday morning. Assuming the storm follows the northern track, Northern and Central New Brunswick would be looking at over 12 hours of snowfall rates of 2-4cm/hr, leading to rapid accumulations of 50+cm in some areas. The snow will start to dissipate from west to east throughout Sunday morning.
The northern storm track will see the snow transition to rain across Southern New Brunswick Saturday evening and continuing until Sunday morning when there will be a brief switch back to snow and a bit of freezing rain before the precipitation ends. This region could easily see 30-50mm of rain with this storm on top of 5-15cm of snow from Saturday morning and afternoon.
In between the bands of heavy snow and rain associated with this storm, there will be a strip of freezing rain and ice pellets that will set up Saturday evening and make its way Southern New Brunswick through the overnight and into Sunday morning. The exact area expected to be impacted by the freezing rain and the amount of accretion is still uncertain, but the northern storm track indicates that most of Southern New Brunswick will see some freezing precipitation, with up to 10mm of accretion possible. Wind gusts should top out at 50km/h and with some significant freezing rain, branches and power lines could be brought down, leading to outages. Temperatures are expected to stay below the freezing mark and the skies will be cloudy to start the week so ice buildup may not melt right away.
The snow will start to spread into Western Nova Scotia early Saturday afternoon as the storm pushes into the region, however it will be light and short lived, leading to less than 5cm of accumulation across much of the province. There will be a break in precipitation for a couple of hours, at which time the temperature is expected to rise, and rain moves in beginning in the late evening and continuing, heavy at times, through the overnight and into the mid-morning Saturday. We will start to see the rain move out of the region from west to east at that time and gradually ending across the province by the late evening Sunday. Mainland Nova Scotia can expect widespread rainfall totals of 30-50mm while Cape Breton Island will see 10-30mm. The southern storm track, on the other hand, has the freezing rain setting up along the Fundy Coast, most of Prince Edward Island and across Eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Island. Wind gusts in this scenario are up to 70km/h which could result in more damaged trees and power lines, but temperatures here are more likely to exceed 0°C on Monday which should help melt any ice.
In Prince Edward Island, the snow will start Saturday afternoon and last for several hours and resulting in 5-15cm before switching to rain overnight. The rain will continue into the morning and shortly after sunrise, there will be a transition back to snow from west to east that will last for a few hours as the storm makes its final push across the province before ending Sunday evening.
We expect to have an updated forecast available Friday evening, along with additional maps for freezing rain and rainfall, as the storm draws closer and its track becomes clearer.
