MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, May 10, 2023
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There is the risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon into the evening across much of Southern Manitoba. Some of these storms could be quite strong, particularly in the Minnedosa, Dauphin, Neepawa and Erikdale regions.
Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the Saskatchewan border later this afternoon and track into Western Manitoba. The environment is favourable for these storms to produce up to golf ball size hail and wind gusts in excess of 100km/h. Localized rainfall totals may also approach 50-75mm in pockets that are affected by storm activity.
As the storms make their way in a southeastern direction, we believe that the main storm threat will shift from large hail to damaging wind gusts as the storm mode becomes more liner instead of discrete supercells. This means those in Southcentral Manitoba including the Winnipeg area and Southeastern Manitoba are primarily at the risk of 90-100km/h wind gusts during the evening while the hail and tornado threat will be less of a concern.
Thunderstorms will continue until just before midnight as the cluster of storms moves out of Eastern Manitoba and into Ontario.
We have also revised our tornado risk forecast based on the latest data. The strongest tornado potential exists in a small pocket including Minnedosa, Dauphin, Neepawa and Eriksdale. There is a very good chance that we see at least one tornado today within this area although it isn’t guaranteed. Surrounding parts of Southwestern Manitoba into the Interlake region have an isolated tornado risk, but it’s fairly low.
