MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, May 10, 2023
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The storm threat across Southern Manitoba on Wednesday is looking stronger than initially expected. As a result, we have upgraded our forecast to include both a slight and isolated severe risk zone. Based on the latest model data it appears there is the potential for some storms to produce up to 3cm size hail and wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.
The strongest risk extends from Roblin/Russell through Dauphin and into Portage La Prairie. Storms are expected to develop along the Saskatchewan border and track into Western Manitoba by the late afternoon.
These storms are expected to continue to move across Southern Manitoba and should reach the Winnipeg area by the early evening. At this point, the main storm threat will shift towards 90+km/h wind gusts as the storms take more of a linear formation.
Thunderstorms will continue until just before midnight as the cluster of storms moves out of Eastern Manitoba and into Ontario.
An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out with the storms on Wednesday. The risk for tornadoes will be primarily focused on Southwestern Manitoba including Virden, Brandon, Dauphin and Portage La Prairie (see below).
