MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, July 2, 2023
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SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
We have upgraded the severe risk to 'strong' for the Interlake region, extending westward into Swan River to the north of Dauphin. According to the latest model guidance, storm development is more likely earlier in the day in this area, allowing the storms to take advantage of a stronger environment.
If storms develop this afternoon into the early evening, they could bring threats including wind gusts of 100 km/h or higher and very large hail, potentially reaching golf ball size or even larger. Additionally, one or two tornadoes could also be possible.
Although there is still a strong environment across Central Manitoba, including Winnipeg, models indicate that storm development will likely occur late in the evening, which limits the overall severe potential. While there is still a slight chance of earlier storm development, the confidence is not sufficient at this time to warrant an upgrade.
ORIGINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
A slight severe risk is in place across Central Manitoba, spanning from Winnipeg through the Interlake region and into Dauphin. The primary threat will be strong wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, with a line of storms anticipated as the most probable storm mode. There is also the potential for hail up to the size of a toonie and an isolated tornado. Eastern Manitoba and parts of Western Manitoba have an isolated risk of severe weather.
While the environment is favourable for severe storms, there is some uncertainty regarding storm development. Current model projections suggest that storms may not form until late in the evening, which could limit the overall severe potential compared to earlier storm initiation. However, if storms do develop earlier than expected, there could be a significant increase in the severe risk, particularly across Central Manitoba, including Winnipeg. An upgrade to a 'strong' risk cannot be ruled out if storm development becomes more likely.
