MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, July 2, 2023
/
FORECAST DISCUSSION
A slight severe risk is in place across Central Manitoba, spanning from Winnipeg through the Interlake region and into Dauphin. The primary threat will be strong wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, with a line of storms anticipated as the most probable storm mode. There is also the potential for hail up to the size of a toonie and an isolated tornado. Eastern Manitoba and parts of Western Manitoba have an isolated risk of severe weather.
While the environment is favourable for severe storms, there is some uncertainty regarding storm development. Current model projections suggest that storms may not form until late in the evening, which could limit the overall severe potential compared to earlier storm initiation. However, if storms do develop earlier than expected, there could be a significant increase in the severe risk, particularly across Central Manitoba, including Winnipeg. An upgrade to a 'strong' risk cannot be ruled out if storm development becomes more likely.
