MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, July 26, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Wednesday is gearing up to be a day of widespread thunderstorm activity sweeping across much of Southern Manitoba during the afternoon and evening hours. Our attention is focused on the environment, which signals a potential for some storms to escalate into severe territory, especially in the Interlake region. There, isolated supercells are possible, posing a heightened risk of all severe threats.

Threats include very large hail, reaching up to the size of golf balls, alongside 100 km/h wind gusts and the risk of flash flooding. Furthermore, one or two tornadoes are also possible.

Winnipeg finds itself walking a precarious line, precariously balancing on the edge of the impending storm's path. As of now, the Winnipeg area is assigned a 'slight' severe risk, with large hail and strong wind gusts the primary concerns. An isolated tornado possibility cannot be dismissed.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, July 25, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Scattered thunderstorms are set to develop across Central Manitoba, including the Interlake region, during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could pack a punch, with severe threats including hail up to the size of golf balls, 100 km/h wind gusts, and localized flash flooding. An isolated tornado isn’t out of the question.

There could also be some morning thunderstorm activity through South-central Manitoba into Winnipeg that may reach marginally severe levels. The primary threat would be flooding due to the slow-moving nature of these storms. Strong wind gusts and up to quarter-sized hail is also possible.

We're keeping a close eye on the extent of the risk, especially in areas to the south, like Winnipeg. While the environment is conducive to severe weather, current model data suggests that storm development is more likely further north, where we have a 'slight' risk.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, July 23, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

For Sunday afternoon and early evening, there's a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of Southwestern Manitoba. However, we want to highlight that this risk is conditional on storm development, which remains questionable at best. Some models suggest only a few isolated storms may overcome the inhibition present across Southern Manitoba, so this risk is very isolated.

⛈️ Potential Threats

  • Hail: Be prepared for the possibility of large hailstones, up to the size of toonies, which can cause damage to vehicles and structures.

  • Wind Gusts: Strong wind gusts of up to 100 km/h are possible, which may result in tree damage and power outages.

  • Heavy Rainfall: Some areas could experience heavy rainfall, leading to localized flooding concerns.

🌪️ Tornado Risk

While the overall tornado risk is low, we can't completely rule out the chance of an isolated tornado. If you see rotating clouds or funnel clouds, please take immediate precautions and seek shelter.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, July 19, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

There is a chance of isolated severe storms during the afternoon on Wednesday along the International border in Extreme Southeastern Manitoba, located to the south of Winnipeg. However, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact location of storm development, and it's possible that they may form south of the border, posing no threat to Manitoba.

If these storms do develop within the region, they could bring the following threats:

  • Damaging Wind Gusts: Expect wind gusts reaching speeds of up to 90 km/h, which can cause tree damage and power outages.

  • Large Hail: There is a potential for hail up to the size of toonies, which can cause damage to vehicles and property.

  • Flash Flooding: Localized heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding in certain areas.

Additionally, there is a slight chance of funnel clouds, which in rare cases, can touch down and become landspout tornadoes.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, July 19, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Isolated severe storms are possible during the afternoon on Wednesday along the International border in Extreme Southeastern Manitoba. There is some uncertainty on where the storms will develop and it’s possible they may form south of the border and pose no threat to Manitoba. All severe threats are on the table including large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, July 18, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms developing along the Saskatchewan border and tracking into Western Manitoba during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. However, it's important to note that the latest models suggest some lingering rain earlier in the day, which may impact the potential for storm development later in the afternoon. As a result, there is a possibility that the forecasted thunderstorms may not materialize as expected.

If storms do develop, they have the potential to become quite severe, with the main threats including hail ranging from toonie to ping pong ball-sized, wind gusts reaching speeds of up to 100 km/h, and localized flash flooding. Additionally, there is a low possibility of an isolated tornado.

The strongest risk for severe weather is concentrated in the southwestern portion of the province, including areas such as Virden, Souris, Boissevain, and Brandon. However, as the storms progress to the east and north, they are expected to weaken significantly by the time they reach those regions later in the day.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, July 18, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

There is an isolated severe thunderstorm risk in Western Manitoba along the Saskatchewan border on Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours and continue into the evening. All severe threats are possible including large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either.

MANITOBA: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, July 9, 2023

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

Strong isolated storms are expected to develop later this afternoon in Western Manitoba along the Saskatchewan border. As these storms track southeastward, they will encounter an explosive environment around areas such as Minnedosa, Neepawa, and Portage La Prairie. This environment is likely to result in many of these storms becoming significantly severe, with threats including very large hail up to the size of golf balls or even tennis balls, as well as destructive wind gusts exceeding 115 km/h. There is also a potential for a few tornadoes today.

By the early evening, the cluster of isolated supercells will track toward the Winnipeg region. The strength of these storms upon reaching Winnipeg remains uncertain, but the primary threats are expected to be more related to damaging winds rather than large hail and tornadoes. In addition, there is a chance of severe storms in Southeastern Manitoba along the Ontario border this afternoon before they move into Northwestern Ontario, potentially producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

TORNADO RISK

The tornado risk will be concentrated in a narrow region stretching from Dauphin southeastward through Neepawa and Portage La Prairie. This area has the highest risk of experiencing a few tornadoes during the mid to late afternoon hours and into the early evening.

As the storms reach areas further east later in the day, the tornado risk will gradually diminish due to the less favorable environment. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in much of Southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg.