Pre-Holiday Freezing Rain Risk Could Impact Travel in Ontario on Saturday
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As the countdown to Christmas Day continues, many are preparing to hit the roads this weekend for holiday celebrations. Despite expecting a warm Christmas on Monday, the lead-up promises some challenging weather.
Early Saturday morning, parts of Southern and Northern Ontario will encounter a mix of frozen precipitation, including wet snow and freezing rain.
Southwestern Ontario, following midnight, will experience patchy drizzle originating from Michigan. In some regions, temperatures will hover just below freezing, particularly around the Greater Toronto Area and its north, west, and east.
This will allow for some of that drizzle to freeze on contact with the ground. Areas along the lakeshore of Lake Ontario may see less freezing rain, thanks to marginally warmer lake-adjacent temperatures.
The freezing rain will persist intermittently throughout Saturday morning. However, temperatures are expected to rise later in the morning south and west of Lake Simcoe. The icy conditions will extend northeast, bringing wet flurries and freezing rain to Central and Eastern Ontario late in the morning.
The most ice accumulation is anticipated from Lake Simcoe across the Kawartha Lakes to Peterborough, extending north of Kingston. This is due to an expected 6-12 hours of continuous freezing rain from Saturday morning to late afternoon.
By Saturday evening, most areas should transition to regular rain, but northern parts of Central and Eastern Ontario might still experience freezing drizzle. The freezing rain threat could even extend overnight into early Sunday morning in the Ottawa Valley.
In Northeastern Ontario, freezing drizzle is expected throughout Saturday, subsiding by evening as temperatures rise above freezing.
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Although the overall impact of ice accretion from this event is predicted to be minimal, untreated surfaces might still develop a thin layer of ice.
The latest models concur that the most affected area will be north of Lake Ontario. This includes Orangeville, Newmarket, Lindsay, Peterborough, Tweed, and Smith’s Falls, with potential local ice accumulation up to a few millimetres—possibly 3-4mm in higher elevations.
An expansive area encompassing the GTA, Central, and Eastern Ontario may experience minor freezing drizzle, but significant ice accumulation is not expected. Any ice formed is likely to melt quickly once temperatures rise above freezing later on Saturday.
Snowfall from this system will be minimal, with only a few wet flurries. The greatest likelihood for any snow accumulation is in Central Ontario east of Georgian Bay, but even there, it’s anticipated to be just a few centimetres.
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Lastly, minor freezing drizzle is also forecasted for Northeastern Ontario, primarily east of Lake Superior. However, significant ice accumulation is not expected in this region.
