‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Snow Squalls Likely to Cancel School Buses on Monday in Parts of Central & Southwestern Ontario
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Snow squalls continue to batter regions in the typical snowbelt around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, persisting through Sunday. This activity has resulted in impressive snowfall totals, reaching up to 40cm in Grey, Bruce, and Simcoe counties.
With the lake effect snow machine still going strong and showing no signs of abating over the next 24 hours, it's likely that several school bus cancellations will occur on Monday due to the poor road conditions.
During the day, the focus of the activity has been to the south, but these squalls have begun moving north toward the Bruce Peninsula, Muskoka, and Parry Sound regions. This shift implies that areas heavily impacted today might have experienced the brunt of it, as squalls are expected to remain north for most of Monday.
This change in wind direction could also bring the Lake Ontario and Erie squalls across the border, potentially impacting the Niagara, Picton, and Kingston regions on Monday morning. Consequently, bus cancellations in these regions cannot be ruled out.
While the heaviest snow has occurred around the Barrie, Midland, Orillia, and Grey-Bruce regions, additional significant snowfall overnight is not expected. Therefore, the likelihood of a snow day might seem lower than what the current conditions suggest.
We anticipate that there will be enough time for road crews to clear the roads in some of these areas. Hence, the focus of this forecast is on additional snow accumulating overnight into Monday morning.
Bruce County and regions directly east and northeast of Georgian Bay, including Muskoka, Parry Sound, North Bay, the Bruce Peninsula, and Southampton, will experience the worst conditions. There's a very high chance, about 90%, of a snow day in these regions, as rapid snow accumulation will likely render it nearly impossible for school buses to operate safely.
A snow day is also probable for Kincardine, Owen Sound, Meaford, and the northern zone of Simcoe County, with a 75% chance of school bus cancellations. This prediction is less certain since the squalls might not be active at the time, but the overnight accumulations should be sufficient to justify cancellations.
The situation is more uncertain for the rest of Simcoe County, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, and parts of Huron, Perth, and Dufferin counties, where a snow day is possible but only has a 50-50 chance at best.
The Prince Edward County, Belleville, and Kingston region, affected by the Lake Ontario squall, also have a 50% chance of a snow day. In the Niagara region, the likelihood is around 25%, but there's a higher chance of localized delays, especially closer to the Lake Erie shoreline where the squall activity will be most intense.
In other parts of Southern Ontario, a snow day is unlikely, as the heaviest snow will be concentrated in areas around the lakes.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
