Snow Squalls Could Dump Up to 20-40cm of Snow on Parts of Ontario’s Snowbelt This Weekend
/
NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE
Southern Ontario is starting to feel and look a lot more like winter after a mild beginning to February, which led to the melting of the existing snowpack in many areas. Thanks to a recent system that brought our first widespread snowfall in several weeks, we've seen the return of a snowy landscape.
This system also brought in colder air, kicking the lake effect snow machine back into gear across the typical snowbelt regions in Southern and Northern Ontario.
It's quite unusual to be discussing lake effect snow into February, as the lakes are usually mostly frozen over, reducing the source for snow squalls. However, due to the abnormally mild winter we've had, the lakes remain wide open with very little ice coverage.
As a result, snow squalls are expected throughout the weekend, especially east of Lake Huron, Lake Superior, and Georgian Bay. Snowfall totals could be significant, ranging from 15-30cm, with the potential for up to 40-50cm in the hardest-hit regions by the end of Sunday.
Lake Huron and the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay have already been affected by lake effect snow for much of Friday, including areas like Kincardine, Port Elgin, Owen Sound, Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, and Barrie. Although the activity has lessened somewhat heading into the overnight hours and Saturday morning, it is expected to reorganize by the pre-dawn hours.
By Saturday morning, two main areas of heavy snow are expected: the first coming onshore around Port Elgin and affecting the southern portions of both Bruce and Grey counties, potentially extending into the northern sections of Huron and Perth counties.
Organized lake effect snow activity along the southern shorelines of Georgian Bay, including Collingwood and Wasaga Beach, may also bring heavy snow into the Barrie and Angus area at times throughout the morning.
A brief pause in the lake effect activity is anticipated as winds shift around by late Saturday morning, leading to a mostly snow-free afternoon, although some flurries may still linger near the lakes. As evening approaches on Saturday, a strong southwesterly flow will lead to the return of snow squalls off the lakes.
This time, the focus will shift to regions northeast of the lakes, placing the Muskoka and Parry Sound regions in the bullseye for the heaviest snowfall. Brief lake effect activity off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could also bring a few hours of heavy snow to the southern parts of the Niagara region and extend into the Picton and Kingston regions.
Lake effect snow will persist throughout the overnight and into Sunday. The bands are expected to fluctuate between a southwesterly to westerly flow during Sunday, affecting a larger area from Southern Muskoka northward into Parry Sound and Sundridge. Lake effect snow off Lake Huron is also expected during this time, with the Bruce Peninsula, Owen Sound, Kincardine, and Hanover regions seeing the heaviest snow.
Winds will shift again by Sunday afternoon, causing the remaining snow squalls to move southward and gradually weaken. There is some indication that these squalls could still be quite intense as they sweep across the Golden Horseshoe late Sunday afternoon or early evening, potentially bringing a quick burst of snow to the Greater Toronto Area and significantly reducing visibility. If you plan to travel during this time, be prepared for possible sudden whiteouts.
This will mark the end of the weekend snow squall activity. However, lake effect snow may return next week, but it's too early to discuss the exact impacts.
Snow Squall Accumulation Disclaimer
Forecasting the exact snowfall accumulation for a specific location in a lake-effect snow event is extremely challenging. This is because of the highly localized nature of snow bands, which can lead to significant variance in totals even over short distances.
Therefore, you may notice our forecast shows significantly more snow than your weather app (including our own app). App-based forecasts often struggle with lake effect snow events due to their localized nature and reliance on data focused on larger macro-level weather events. This results in a failure to accurately capture the squalls, which operate at a micro-level, leading to intense snowfall totals.
Our forecast may still be off if the wind direction varies slightly from what the models predict, causing the snow squall band to form further north or south. That's why our forecasts use broader zones to account for this variability, meaning not everyone within these zones will see the significant totals. Essentially, we're indicating that a location within this area could see the forecasted amount.
Current data suggest the heaviest snowfall accumulation will focus on two zones: one encompassing the Port Elgin, Chatsworth, and Hanover region, and another east of Georgian Bay, including Parry Sound and much of Northern Muskoka. These areas could see around 20-40cm of snow over the next two days, with local amounts possibly exceeding 40cm and approaching 50cm.
Surrounding areas, including the Bruce Peninsula, Owen Sound, Meaford, Wingham, Kincardine, Bracebridge, and Sundridge, can expect between 15 to 30cm, with local amounts exceeding 30cm.
As is typical with lake-driven events, snowfall totals will decrease rapidly outside of the hardest-hit regions. Locations including Goderich, Shelburne, Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Midland, Gravenhurst, Minden, and Algonquin Park could see 10-20cm of snow. Some of these regions may receive very little snow, depending on the positioning of the bands.
The 5-15cm zone extends not only around the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay snowbelt areas, including Fergus, Angus, Barrie, and Orillia but also covers the southern tip of the Niagara region and the Kingston area. This is due to brief snow squall activity expected off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on Sunday morning.
For the rest of Southern Ontario, less than 5cm of snow is anticipated, although locally higher amounts could occur due to the snow squalls passing through late Sunday.
Regions east of Lake Superior are also expected to see persistent snow squall activity starting Saturday afternoon and continuing throughout Sunday, concluding by Sunday afternoon as the lake effect activity shifts south.
The most significant accumulation is expected along the shorelines of Lake Superior, with 20 to 40cm forecasted for the Wawa area extending southward to north of Sault Ste. Marie.
Further from Lake Superior, lower amounts are anticipated, although most of Northeastern Ontario should receive at least 5cm of snow as a weak system moves through early Sunday morning, enhanced by the lake.
