Damaging Wind Storm Possible for Parts of Ontario Late Tuesday With 90+ KM/H Gusts
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March may have gone out like a lamb, but the beginning of April is roaring like a lion across Southern Ontario. This is thanks to a strong low-pressure system expected to track across the region. The system will bring a mix of weather conditions from severe winds and rain to the possibility of substantial snowfall as we advance into Wednesday and Thursday.
The immediate concern, however, arises from strong wind gusts anticipated to strengthen by Tuesday afternoon or evening and persisting into Wednesday morning. High-resolution models suggest that some of these gusts could reach damaging levels, surpassing 90km/h in Southwestern, Central, and Northeastern Ontario.
The initial wave of moisture linked to this system has begun in Deep Southwestern Ontario by Monday evening. Although most of this moisture is expected to remain south of the border, areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see heavy rain through the early hours of Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 10-20mm are forecasted, with localized areas around Windsor potentially receiving up to 30mm by Tuesday afternoon.
Following this system's departure towards New England, a second system will make its way into the Lower Great Lakes, rapidly intensifying upon its approach. This swift strengthening is expected to generate powerful wind gusts stretching from Michigan into Southern Ontario by Tuesday evening.
Additionally, there's a notable severe thunderstorm risk south of Lake Erie including Ohio and Pennsylvania for Tuesday evening. It looks like the cool waters of Lake Erie will shield Southwestern Ontario from the brunt of the severe weather.
Nonetheless, we cannot entirely discount the chance of an isolated storm making its way into our area. Should this occur, it could bring the threat of large hail and strong wind gusts. While a tornado remains highly improbable, it is not entirely off the table if a storm does cross over.
We will keep a close eye on this development and may issue a thunderstorm forecast should our confidence grow.
Wind gusts are expected to gradually intensify through Tuesday afternoon, peaking late in the evening or shortly after midnight. Model predictions vary on the peak strength of these gusts, with the Canadian model being somewhat conservative, suggesting gusts may not surpass 80 km/h. Conversely, other models agree on the likelihood of damaging wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h, possibly nearing 100 km/h in some locales.
The areas most susceptible to the strongest wind gusts are to the east of Lake Huron, where gusts could reach between 100 to 115 km/h, affecting Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound, and Wiarton.
Southwestern Ontario, extending to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and the Georgian Bay shoreline, might see wind gusts nearing 90 km/h, though variances are expected, and this represents a potential worst-case scenario. Some locations may fall short of the 90 km/h threshold.
In other parts of Southern Ontario, wind gusts ranging from 70 to 85 km/h are anticipated, with Eastern Ontario likely experiencing a lesser impact.
Power outages are a possibility in regions most affected, so it's wise to prepare for potential extended disruptions, particularly as the wind will accompany heavy rain overnight.
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In Northeastern Ontario, the strongest winds, possibly exceeding 100 km/h, will occur directly east of Lake Superior, including areas like Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie.
Gusts near 90 km/h are forecasted along the northern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Elliot Lake and Sudbury. The rest of Northern Ontario will generally see gusts below 85 km/h, with impacts diminishing further north and west.
The wind threat should subside by Wednesday morning in Southern Ontario but may linger into the early afternoon in Northeastern Ontario.
Following this wind event, attention shifts to the low-pressure system, which will stall over Michigan and draw in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will funnel a significant volume of moisture into Southern Ontario through Wednesday and Thursday.
As colder air envelops Southern Ontario by late Wednesday, a transition from heavy rain to snow is anticipated, particularly in Northeastern, Central, and Eastern Ontario, potentially starting as early as late Wednesday afternoon. Some areas could see over 30cm of snow before it eases off late Thursday.
With the specifics of this transition and the extent of snow accumulation still uncertain, we are waiting to release our detailed forecast for rain and snow until Tuesday. What remains clear is that we are in for a deluge of precipitation over the coming days, with projections of 50-75 mm for certain parts of Southern Ontario. Flooding is a concern, regardless of whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow.
