Severe Thunderstorms Target Parts of Southwestern Ontario on Wednesday With Tornado Threat
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The saying "April showers bring May flowers" certainly holds true this year in Southern Ontario, where continuous heavy rainfall over the past few weeks has led to flood watches in various parts of Central and Eastern Ontario due to rising water levels.
Even more rain is expected in the coming days. Rainfall totals over the next few days are predicted to range between 10-20mm, potentially reaching 20-40mm in areas affected by thunderstorms.
This impending rainfall also carries a risk of severe thunderstorms, particularly on Wednesday in Southwestern Ontario, driven by a surge of warm air that could push temperatures into the 20s in some locales.
This increase in temperature will play a crucial role in the development of severe weather conditions starting Wednesday afternoon. However, this will be primarily localized to Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia, limiting the severe threat to these areas. In contrast, temperatures in Central and Eastern Ontario are expected to struggle to reach double digits.
A line of storms has already started forming in Western Michigan, extending from Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo. This line is anticipated to continue its eastward movement, reaching the Canadian border between 3 to 5 PM.
According to the latest data, conditions seem favourable for these storms to potentially become severe, featuring wind gusts over 100 km/h and large hail, possibly the size of ping-pong balls. The chance of a brief tornado cannot be entirely dismissed.
Environment Canada has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that notably includes potential tornado risks for the following areas:
Chatham-Kent
Eastern Lambton County
Essex County
Komoka
Leamington
Petrolia
Pinery Park
Rodney
Rondeau Park
Sarnia
Shedden
Strathroy
Watford
Western Elgin County
Western Lambton County
Western Middlesex County
Windsor
As the storm line advances towards London and subsequently the Niagara region by early evening, the severe weather threat is expected to wane due to diminishing environmental support. Nevertheless, isolated wind gusts still could reach 90+ km/h, and small to quarter-sized hail remains a possibility.
While Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area might experience a few storms later tonight into early Thursday morning, these are likely to be non-severe.
