Severe Thunderstorm Risk to Kick Off the Week in Southwestern Ontario on Monday
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It has been quite an active few days when it comes to severe weather across the U.S., with a multi-day tornado outbreak leading to devastating scenes in Nebraska, Iowa, and Oklahoma.
Now, the severe weather threat shifts northeast, including the potential for strong storms in Southwestern Ontario starting Monday afternoon and continuing into the evening hours.
Thankfully, the threat here doesn’t appear to be as severe as what was experienced over the weekend in the U.S. However, we could still see damaging wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h, hail up to the size of quarters, and there's a low chance of an isolated tornado.
Storms have already started popping up over Michigan as of the early afternoon, and the latest data suggests that the environment is favourable for continued strengthening as they track northeast.
These storms are expected to cross over Lake Huron sometime between 2 to 5 PM and make landfall between Grand Bend and Kincardine. Strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk are the main threats with this cluster of storms.
Further south, there may be a second cluster of storms moving into the Windsor area sometime in the early to mid-evening hours. Some models suggest this won’t occur until after sunset, which would lead to a lower severe threat as the effects of daylight heating diminish.
If the storms arrive earlier than expected, the environment would be capable of supporting storms with damaging wind gusts and small hail as the main threats. Again, the tornado risk is low, but we can’t completely rule out a brief spin-up.
Non-severe thunderstorms will continue throughout the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. This risk extends from Southwestern Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario along the Lake Ontario shoreline.
