Severe Thunderstorm & Isolated Tornado Threat on Tuesday for Southern Ontario
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After experiencing a chilly start to April, Southern Ontario is finally feeling the warmth, bringing a more spring-like atmosphere to the region. This warmth will be especially noticeable on Tuesday as temperatures are expected to climb into the upper teens or even low 20s in some areas.
This warming, combined with an approaching cold front later on Tuesday, will set the stage for the development of thunderstorms.
A potent environment conducive to thunderstorm development is expected to materialize across Southwestern and Central Ontario during the afternoon, fueled by ample daylight heating from the warmer temperatures.
As the cold front sweeps through the province starting in the late afternoon, a line of storms is anticipated to form, extending from North Bay towards Georgian Bay and into regions east of Lake Huron. According to the latest model data, these storms have the potential to become severe, with all types of severe thunderstorm threats being possible.
A slight severe thunderstorm risk extends from Kitchener through Orangeville and Simcoe County into Central Ontario, with a particular emphasis on the corridor from Orangeville to Bracebridge, where models indicate the most conducive environment for severe storm development. The primary window for these storms is between 3 to 8 PM, varying with the arrival time of the cold front.
These storms could bring large hail, up to the size of quarters or ping pong balls, wind gusts of up to 100 km/h, and the possibility of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Areas within the isolated severe risk zone might experience a few storms, but the confidence is lower compared to those within the slight severe zone. As the evening progresses, the risk will evolve into a wind threat as the storms merge into a main squall line, advancing towards the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario.
In Eastern Ontario, non-severe thunderstorms are anticipated around midnight as the weakening line of storms moves through. Although the severe weather risk is expected to be low by the time the storms arrive, small hail and strong wind gusts are still possibilities.
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For Northeastern Ontario, an isolated severe storm threat is forecasted near the North Bay area as storms develop off Georgian Bay. The severity of the storms is expected to lessen further north, with non-severe thunderstorms predicted for the majority of Northeastern Ontario.
