Potentially Significant Severe Threat in Southern Ontario on Thursday; Tornadoes, Destructive Wind Gusts and Large Hail Possible
/THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
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Confidence is growing for what could be Southern Ontario’s strongest severe thunderstorm risk of the year so far. The latest model data points to a potent environment developing throughout the afternoon and evening on Thursday.
As a result, we have issued a significant (level 4/5) severe risk due to the widespread severe threat. Locations affected include Orangeville, Collingwood, Newmarket, Barrie, Orillia, Midland, Peterborough, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Algonquin Park, and North Bay.
These threats could include destructive wind gusts over 100-110 km/h (potentially up to 125 km/h) and large hail up to the size of toonies or golf balls. Tornadoes are also likely, especially along the Barrie, Orillia to Muskoka corridor, where models show a strong agreement on this area featuring the most intense environment.
The surrounding region, including the Lake Huron shoreline extending through Kitchener and into the Greater Toronto Area, has a strong risk of severe thunderstorms. The environment remains quite favourable for severe weather here, though there is more uncertainty about storm development. If storms form, they will be able to take advantage of the strong environment.
Those in Eastern Ontario along the St. Lawrence and Deep Southwestern Ontario have a marginal severe risk. This is because the environment is weaker and likely won’t support any major severe weather threats.
More detailed timing information will be coming in an updated forecast on Wednesday or early Thursday.
NOTE: This is a preliminary forecast and is subject to change. Please check back for the latest updates so you can properly prepare as we get closer to the event.
Northern Ontario could also see some stormy weather on Thursday. We currently have a slight risk for a portion of Northeastern Ontario along the Quebec border and stretching southward towards Georgian Bay. North Bay likely has the strongest risk of anywhere else in Northern Ontario.
The risk will lessen further to the north and west. However, Northwestern Ontario could be dealing with quite an active day on Wednesday. The main threat will be large hail and possibly some tornadoes. More details on that will follow soon, including a full forecast.
