Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Wednesday for Southwestern and Central Ontario
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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (Wednesday, June 26, 2024) in parts of southwestern Ontario and Central Ontario, highlighted in yellow on our forecast map. There is, however, some uncertainty regarding the location and timing of these storms. Having said that, if a strong storm does decide to develop off of Lake Huron near Kincardine early this afternoon (12p - 3p), we could have a supercell (rotating storm) on our hands that should track east towards the Barrie region by (4-7pm).
Some models are suggesting that strong storm development is possible in that area and others are suggesting no storms will develop in that region. If this anticipated storm does occur, there could be an isolated tornado risk with it along with a risk for hail, damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and torrential rain.
Deeper in southwestern Ontario, we're more confident about the development of thunderstorms. For areas north of Lake Erie, from Windsor and Essex County, up through the Sarnia region, reaching over towards the London corridor and perhaps towards the Niagara region, we're anticipating a cluster of storms developing this afternoon and pushing east through the evening hours. These storms could bring with them damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning, torrential rain and some flooding risk. Isolated tornado development cannot be ruled out in that region either.
We're also seeing some marginal risks for thunderstorm development in parts of Eastern Ontario, developing either in the late afternoon or evening hours. The best chance in Eastern Ontario would be in areas north of Lake Ontario, tracking to the southeast, possibly towards the Kingston and Cornwall regions. Overall, the risk in eastern Ontario is marginal. However, hail, damaging wind gusts, lightning, torrential rain cannot be ruled out. The tornado risk would be quite low, but stranger things have happened in our region so we'll be watching closely to see if any storms develop rotation.
We're going to be watching closely to see exactly where any storms develop this afternoon and evening and we may go live to cover the storms if they look strong enough so definitely look out for that on our YouTube page and if it gets particularly intense, we'll also go live on our Facebook pages.
Have a plan today folks and certainly keep an eye on our free mobile app; Instant Weather for any notifications regarding rotating storms, damaging wind gusts, etc.
More details ASAP.
