Strong Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Saturday for Parts of Southern Ontario
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We’ve been carefully monitoring the risk of severe thunderstorms developing in Southern, Central and Eastern Ontario today, Saturday, June 29th, 2024. We’ve noticed quite a bit of variability in the model data for a few days now and it’s been a tricky forecast to say the least. However, we’ve believe based on the data that we’ve seen, there is an isolated strong risk for severe thunderstorms today, highlighted in orange in deep southwestern Ontario, stretching over to the Niagara region and western side of the GTHA.
We may even see severe thunderstorms this morning in the deep southwest, followed by more storms this afternoon and evening across much of the region. The main risks are torrential rain with flooding, hail, damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. We are also seeing a risk for isolated tornadoes with these storms as the environment looks quite robust for the development of supercells.
In addition to the strong risk, we’ve included a slight risk in yellow that stretches up into the northern side of Southwestern Ontario, through Central Ontario and the rest of the GTHA, and down through areas north of Lake Ontario, ultimately out towards Quebec.
It’s difficult to determine if we’ll see enough clearing of the widespread rain to support strong severe thunderstorms in the slight risk area or if the wash out of precipitation across the region will mitigate how strong these storms can become. Nonetheless, if we do end up seeing more clearing than we’re expecting, this would allow for daytime heating to occur and then we could be dealing with an isolated tornado risk in the slight regions along with a risk for hail, damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and isolated flooding.
Last but not least we have a marginal risk in green across the rest of Eastern Ontario and even up into the southern side of Northeastern Ontario, towards Manitoulin Island, Sudbury, etc. Up there, models have not suggested the storms will be that strong but in these widespread severe weather environments, if the right storm hits the right lake breeze or outflow boundary we could end up seeing severe thunderstorm activity. This is why we’ve got a blanket green risk across the rest of the region.
Long story slight longer, keep your eyes to the skies folks! We’ll be watching closely and live-streaming at some point today to closely monitor these storms as they could quickly become severe so we’ll need to move fast with our custom severe weather notifications. To receive those instantly along with any Environment Canada alerts, download our free app Instant Weather or if you want to ensure the fastest and most robust delivery of alerts, you can subscribe to our class leading Text Message Alerts.
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