SASKATCHEWAN: Significant Risk for Severe Thunderstorms, Sunday, June 23, 2024

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Significant risk for severe thunderstorms today (Sunday, June 23, 2024) across a large swath of populated Saskatchewan. Storms should develop west of Saskatoon this afternoon and begin to push to the east, northeast. That same line of storms will extend further north, perhaps up towards the North Battleford and Prince Albert regions.

Another cluster of supercells is expected to develop east of Swift Current late afternoon or perhaps in the early evening hours, which will eventually push east and southeast towards the Manitoba and international borders.

The main risks are very large hail, perhaps 3-6cm at the high-end with strong damaging wind gusts reaching upwards of 115km/h or higher. Isolated flooding and frequent lightning are also possible. Last but certainly not least, we could see a couple or perhaps several tornadoes and they may have the chance to become strong and long lasting with this particular environment and strong wind shear that we’re expecting.

We’ll be watching close and live-streaming later today so make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com/@InstantWeather to get notified when we go live. We’ll also notify everyone via our free mobile app which can be downloaded at InstantWeather.ca/app.

Have a plan today folks and be safe! More details ASAP.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 15, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Tuesday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, August 14, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Monday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, August 13, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Sunday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, August 12, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Saturday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, August 11, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Friday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 10, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Thursday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 9, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Wednesday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 8, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Tuesday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, August 7, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Monday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, August 6, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Sunday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, August 5, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Saturday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, August 4, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Friday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 3, 2023

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There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in Central Saskatchewan on Thursday. Isolated storms are expected to pop up from Moose Jaw through Saskatoon and into Prince Albert during the afternoon and evening. They could present severe threats including 100 km/h wind gusts, hail up to the size of ping pong balls and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 2, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Wednesday.

Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️

When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:

  • Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.

  • Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.

Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.

We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.

Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.

The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.

Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.

In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.

For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 1, 2023

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Prepare for isolated thunderstorms scattered across much of Saskatchewan on Tuesday. The risk is primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, with storms expected to develop early in the afternoon in the southeast, followed by storms in Central Saskatchewan later in the afternoon and towards the evening.

In specific locations such as Estevan, Oxbow, Carlyle, Moose Jaw, Outlook, and Saskatoon, there is a slight severe risk. These areas may experience large hail, with hailstones possibly reaching the size of ping-pong balls. Additionally, strong wind gusts of up to 100 km/h and heavy rainfall are anticipated.

While the overall tornado risk is low, we can't completely rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado. The rest of Southern Saskatchewan falls under an isolated severe risk, indicating that some locations in this area may also experience severe weather conditions.

Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️

When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:

  • Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.

  • Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.

Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.

We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.

Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.

The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.

Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.

In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.

For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, July 31, 2023

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in Eastern Saskatchewan during the afternoon and evening on Monday. Some models are showing isolated storms developing just west of the Manitoba border around Estevan, Yorkton and Moosomin. These storms have the potential to produce hail up the size of ping pong balls, 100 km/h wind gusts and flash flooding. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that this risk is conditional on storm development which a few models suggest won’t occur or happen later in the day when the environment is weaker. The bust potential is there with this event.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, July 30, 2023

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Sunday is set to unleash a potent severe thunderstorm risk across much of Southwestern Saskatchewan. Storms are anticipated to affect this region from the afternoon hours into the early evening.

The atmospheric conditions are ripe for these storms to intensify and turn severe, with the primary threats being up to golf ball-sized hail, 100 km/h wind gusts, and heavy rainfall.

Our focus is on the Shaunavon, Swift Current, and Assiniboia regions, where we have identified a 'strong' severe risk. Here, isolated supercells could emerge and track southeastward into America by the late afternoon and early evening. These storms have the of producing large hail and perhaps even one or two tornadoes.

As for the surrounding regions along the southern part of the Alberta border and Moose Jaw, a 'slight' risk of severe thunderstorms remains on the table.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, July 29, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Saturday.

Saskatchewan: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, July 28, 2023

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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Saskatchewan on Friday.