'Snow Day' Forecast: Slight Chance of School Bus Cancellations in the GTA on Friday
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A system is forecast to arrive in Southwestern Ontario late Thursday, bringing light to moderate snowfall to the region overnight and into Friday morning. Along with this system, a lake-effect snow band is expected to form early Friday morning, affecting parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) west of Lake Ontario.
While the overall snowfall accumulation will not be particularly significant—most areas will see 2-5 cm, with localized amounts of up to 15 cm in the lake-effect snow zone—the potential for reduced visibility is a concern. This will be especially true for the stretch between Toronto and Burlington during the Friday morning rush hour. As a result, there is a possibility of school bus cancellations, though it remains uncertain.
The highest likelihood of cancellations is in the southern parts of Peel and Halton regions, where the most intense snow squall activity is expected. However, the probability is estimated at only 50%, as urban school boards in these areas typically require more substantial impacts to cancel buses. The decision will hinge on the strength of the snow band and whether it causes significant road issues when cancellation decisions are made in the early morning.
In surrounding areas, including Toronto and northern Halton, there is a slight chance (about 25%) of cancellations. While unlikely, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out if conditions worsen unexpectedly.
Elsewhere in Southwestern Ontario, the probability of cancellations is very low to low. The system's expected snowfall alone is insufficient to prompt widespread cancellations. However, some localized areas may experience reduced visibility during the morning commute, which could lead to isolated decisions by individual school boards to cancel buses as a precaution.
For Central and Eastern Ontario, no school bus cancellations are anticipated, as these regions are not expected to see significant snowfall from this system.
As Friday marks the last school day before the holiday break, this will be our final snow day forecast for 2024. Thank you for relying on us for your snow day probability updates throughout the year. Our forecasts will resume the week of January 6th. Have a safe and happy holiday season!
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
