February 19, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Wednesday, February 19, 2025

February 19, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several cancellations and school closures, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are multiple cancellations and school closures, please visit this link for more details: https://www.mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St Andrew, St Peter, St Benedict & RF Hall are cancelled today.
PeeI Public: All transportation to RF Hall SS is cancelled today due to cancellations in Dufferin County.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: There are isolated cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://transportation.mybigyellowbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: Busses are cancelled for North Wellington (Division 3) & Dufferin County and RF Hall (Division 4).

French Schools

Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled for the Region of Bruce-Grey & Huron Perth of Middlesex Region

February 18, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Another Day of Likely Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Wednesday

February 18, 2025/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/19/bus-cancellations

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

Snow squalls have continued to dump heavy snow across parts of the snowbelt region, particularly east of Lake Huron and along the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay, throughout the day on Tuesday. These intense bursts of snowfall have created near-whiteout conditions at times, making travel extremely difficult and forcing numerous road closures.

While squalls are expected to weaken overnight, road conditions will likely remain hazardous in the hardest-hit areas. Plows have struggled to keep up, with snow accumulating faster than it can be cleared. Many roads remain impassable, and even as crews work through the night, some routes may not be fully cleared by morning.

As a result, there’s a strong likelihood of another round of school bus cancellations on Wednesday, particularly in areas where rural backroads are still buried. The highest chances for a snow day include all of Grey-Bruce and northern Huron County, where widespread road closures have been reported.

Simcoe County may also see some bus cancellations, especially in communities closer to Georgian Bay, where snowfall has been heaviest and conditions remain the most difficult.

Outside of these core snowbelt regions, there’s a possibility of bus cancellations in Dufferin and Wellington counties, as well as northern Durham (around Beaverton) and parts of Kawartha Lakes. However, the likelihood in these areas is less certain and will depend on how quickly road crews can clear the snow overnight.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Simcoe County District School Board (South & North Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Durham District School Board (North)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)
Waterloo Region District School Board
Peel District School Board (North)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 18, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Tuesday, February 18, 2025

February 18, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several cancellations and school closures, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are multiple cancellations and school closures, please visit this link for more details: https://www.mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St Andrew, St Peter, St Benedict & RF Hall are cancelled today. St Andrew, St Peter and St Benedict are CLOSED,
Durham Public & Durham Catholic: DSTS has cancelled Zone 1 transportation for today
Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All transportation is cancelled today in Northumberland, Clarington, Peterborough City and County.
PeeI Public: All transportation to RF Hall SS is cancelled today due to cancellations in Dufferin County.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in all Simcoe County zones.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: School purpose vehicles are CANCELLED for the day in MIDDLESEX & OXFORD Counties.
Trillium Lakelands: All school vehicles to schools in Zone 4 and Zone 5 have been cancelled today.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed, except for RF Hall.

French Schools

Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Disruption to school transport and/or the opening of certain schools in the following regions: Wellington, Simcoe & Peterborough
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Region of Oxford, Region of Middlesex, Region of Bruce-Grey
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled for the Region of Durham and the Region of Waterloo (Guelph routes)

February 17, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely in Southern Ontario's Snowbelt on Tuesday

February 17, 2025/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/18/bus-cancellations

Intense snow squalls have been pounding the snowbelt region, including Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County, throughout the day. Heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous whiteout conditions, making travel nearly impossible in some areas.

As a result, plows have been pulled off the roads, and numerous road closures have been reported across Grey-Bruce due to the lack of visibility and the sheer volume of snow accumulating too quickly to clear.

With these intense squalls expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to operate safely in the hardest-hit areas. A snow day is looking like a near certainty for students across Grey-Bruce and parts of Simcoe County, including the City of Barrie, where snowfall rates remain extreme and drifts continue to build.

Beyond the snowbelt, blowing snow could still cause problems across parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario, extending into portions of the GTA. This may increase the likelihood of school bus cancellations in some areas, though the chances are lower the farther you get from the core snowbelt region.

Many school boards covering urban areas tend to have a higher threshold for cancellations, meaning decisions will likely depend on road conditions early Tuesday morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)
Simcoe County District School Board (West & Central Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Simcoe County District School Board (South & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Durham District School Board (North)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Waterloo Region District School Board
STWDSTS (Guelph)
Peel District School Board (North)
York Region District School Board
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 17, 2025

Snow Squalls Target the Grey-Bruce and Barrie Area Again With Locally Up to 50-100cm of Snow by Tuesday

February 17, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Snow squalls are expected to become well-organized and intensify by Monday morning. One squall off Lake Huron will target southern Grey-Bruce, with periods of intense snowfall throughout the day. Thundersnow is even a possibility in this area.

Another squall will develop off the southeast shoreline of Georgian Bay, impacting parts of southern Simcoe County, including Wasaga Beach, Barrie, Angus, Innisfil, and Keswick.

These squalls will persist into the afternoon, shifting at times. The northern squall could push into Wiarton, extend across Georgian Bay, and come onshore near Barrie. Meanwhile, the southern squall off Lake Huron will stretch from Kincardine to Hanover and could push far inland, periodically bringing heavy snow into parts of the GTA.

By Monday night into Tuesday morning, the Lake Huron squall is expected to stall over southern Grey-Bruce, potentially leading to extreme snowfall accumulation. Wherever this band locks in, snowfall rates could reach an incredible 5-10 cm per hour. Some models suggest this squall could remain in place until Tuesday evening, somewhere between Owen Sound and Hanover.

The Georgian Bay squall may weaken somewhat after midnight but could persist into Tuesday. All snow squall activity should fizzle out by early Wednesday morning.

Projected Snowfall Totals:

Localized amounts near 100 cm are possible in Grey-Bruce, with hotspots likely near Port Elgin, Hanover, Chatsworth, and Flesherton. Not everyone in this zone will see these totals, but some areas will get buried.
25 to 50 cm is likely across the rest of Grey and Bruce counties, extending into northern Huron and Perth counties. This also includes areas along the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay, such as Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, and Barrie.
5 to 15 cm could extend into Kitchener, Guelph, Durham, and York as occasional bursts of heavy snow push outside the core snowbelt region.
The GTA may see light snow at times but is unlikely to receive more than 5 cm over the next two days.

Aside from the snow, we’re starting the week on a much colder note. If you’re heading outside for Family Day, be sure to bundle up—wind chills in the -20s are expected on Monday.

Stay safe and stay warm!

February 15, 2025

Strongest Snowstorm in Years to Bury Southern Ontario in Up to 50cm of Snow on Sunday

February 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Brace yourself, Southern Ontario! One of the biggest snowfalls in recent years is on the horizon for many parts of the region—excluding the usual snowbelt areas. This includes major cities like Toronto, Kingston, and Ottawa, which have largely dodged significant snowstorms over the past few years due to milder winters.

That streak ended earlier this week with the first storm in this parade of systems, dropping a widespread 20 cm or more across Southern Ontario. However, that system could pale in comparison to what’s coming next. This stronger storm is likely to bring 30 cm or more to a large portion of the region throughout Sunday.

As of Saturday afternoon, the first round of snow has already arrived, bringing steady snowfall from Southwestern Ontario into the Golden Horseshoe. This initial wave will be just the beginning, with up to 10 to 15 cm expected by the end of the day.

The second and much more intense round of precipitation will begin early Sunday morning as the system taps into tropical Gulf moisture and directs it straight into the Great Lakes region.

By morning and into the afternoon, conditions will deteriorate rapidly, with snowfall rates reaching 4 to 8 cm per hour. When combined with moderately strong wind gusts, this will lead to widespread blowing snow, significantly reduced visibility, and even localized blizzard conditions.

By the time the snow begins to taper off late Sunday, widespread totals of 30 to 50 cm are expected across Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into the Greater Toronto Area. The hardest-hit areas could even exceed 50 cm, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where elevation may enhance accumulation. Meanwhile, locations along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Niagara, and Chatham, may see lower snowfall totals due to potential mixing with freezing rain or ice pellets.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first round of snow will continue steadily across Southern Ontario through Saturday evening and past midnight, with heavier snowfall targeting the Golden Horseshoe and the southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario.

At the same time, the second round of snow will be rapidly developing south of the Great Lakes, forming over Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. This storm will strengthen quickly as it begins pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which is also fueling severe thunderstorms across the southern U.S.

While there may be a brief lull overnight, don’t let it fool you—the worst is still ahead. The heaviest snowfall will begin to push into Southwestern Ontario before sunrise, bringing a rapid increase in snowfall rates from 1 to 2 cm per hour earlier in the night to 2 to 4 cm per hour by the early morning.

As the system intensifies, hourly rates of 4 to 6 cm—potentially even higher in the strongest bands—are expected. Road conditions will deteriorate quickly, with significantly reduced visibility and heavy blowing snow making travel extremely hazardous.

Most areas will remain on the snowy side of this system, but there is some uncertainty regarding how far north a warm layer could push. This could lead to a brief period of ice pellets or freezing rain in areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, Tillsonburg, Hamilton, and Niagara Falls.

While significant freezing rain is not expected, some minor ice accretion of a few millimetres could occur, particularly right along the shoreline.

By early to mid-morning Sunday, the storm’s intensity will peak across Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, with snowfall rates reaching 4 to 6 cm per hour in many areas. In the strongest bands, these rates could climb even higher, creating whiteout conditions.

Wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h will further reduce visibility, and there is even the possibility of thundersnow as some of these snow bands intensify.

Meanwhile, areas farther north, including regions around Lake Simcoe, Peterborough, and into the Ottawa Valley, will begin to see snowfall intensities climb to 1 to 2 cm per hour, eventually reaching 5 to 10 cm per hour by the early afternoon

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The later part of Sunday morning after sunrise will see the worst conditions through Southwestern Ontario into the GTA as snowfall rates increase even further towards 4 to 6cm and possibility even higher in the strongest pockets of snow.

This snow will also be accompanied by increasing wind gusts near 40 to 60 km/h leading to blowing snow and blizzard conditions. Don’t be surprised to see some thundersnow during the morning as these bands of snow will be quite strong and could produce some lightning as they move through the region.

Snowfall intensity will also gradually increase through Central and Eastern Ontario with hourly snowfall rates reaching 1-2cm per hour around Lake Simcoe through Peterbough and into the Ottawa Valley.

As the system continues to push eastward, the most intense snowfall rates will shift into Central and Eastern Ontario. This is when travel will become nearly impossible in these areas as plows struggle to keep up with the rapid accumulation.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, conditions will begin to improve slightly in the afternoon as the heaviest snow moves east. However, steady snowfall of 1 to 3 cm per hour will continue through much of the afternoon, with strong winds still blowing around earlier accumulations and keeping visibility low.

Snow will gradually taper off across Central and Eastern Ontario by Sunday evening, but blowing snow will remain a significant issue overnight. Travel will remain difficult even after the snowfall ends, particularly in areas with open terrain where drifting will be an issue.

By Monday, conditions should improve, but significantly colder air will move in. If possible, clearing snow on Sunday before temperatures drop is strongly recommended, as the snow will become much heavier to shovel once it settles and freezes.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The strongest wind gusts will be found in Eastern Ontario, peaking during the early to mid-afternoon. Widespread gusts of 50 to 70 km/h are expected, with some areas, particularly around Ottawa and to the east, possibly seeing gusts near 80 km/h.

In comparison, the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, will experience gusts of 40 to 60 km/h, while Southwestern Ontario will likely see gusts under 40 km/h.

These wind speeds combined with the extreme snowfall rates expected across Eastern Ontario will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions.

For a storm to meet the official criteria for a blizzard, winds of 40 km/h or greater must cause widespread reductions in visibility to 400 meters or less due to blowing and falling snow for at least four consecutive hours.

Based on current model data, it is highly likely that visibility will remain near zero for at least six hours from late morning to early/mid-afternoon in many parts of Eastern Ontario, surpassing the official blizzard threshold.

While it remains uncertain whether areas such as the GTA, Lake Simcoe, and Muskoka will officially reach blizzard criteria, blowing snow will still cause significant travel disruptions regardless of classification.

Regardless of whether your area officially meets blizzard criteria, this storm will create extremely dangerous travel conditions across much of Southern Ontario throughout Sunday.

Roads will become impassable at times, and even major highways will be difficult to navigate. Plows will struggle to keep up with the rapid accumulation, making travel nearly impossible in the worst-hit areas. If you don’t absolutely need to be on the roads, it is strongly advised to stay home.

By the time the storm ends, the highest snowfall totals will be found across Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into portions of the GTA, with widespread accumulations ranging from 30 to 50 cm. Some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario near Ottawa and through higher elevations to the west, could exceed 50 cm.

Regions around Lake Simcoe and the northern GTA will likely end up with 30 to 40 cm, though locally higher amounts are possible in areas such as the Dundalk Highlands. The Hamilton region and western GTA may see slightly lower totals, around 20 to 30 cm, due to the potential for ice pellets mixing in at times.

Southwestern Ontario, particularly along the Lake Huron shoreline, will see slightly less snowfall, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm. This includes areas such as Sarnia, London, Goderich, Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound, and North Bay. However, if the system strengthens earlier than expected, some of these locations could still exceed 30 cm.

Meanwhile, the lowest totals will be found along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Windsor, Chatham, and the Niagara region, where snowfall will range from 10 to 20 cm.

Looking ahead, colder temperatures are expected to settle into Southern Ontario by Monday. It would be wise to clear as much snow as possible on Sunday before the deep freeze sets in, as the snow will become significantly harder to move once temperatures drop.

Additionally, this colder air may trigger a resurgence of lake-effect snow early next week, which could lead to further significant snowfall accumulations in the typical snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. More details on that will come in a separate forecast.

This storm will be a major event, and conditions will be dangerous. If possible, stay home and avoid travel. We will continue to monitor the latest data and provide updates as needed. Stay safe!

February 14, 2025

Intense Snowstorm Could Bring Blizzard Conditions and Up to 30-60cm of Snow to Southern Ontario This Weekend

February 14, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The snowy weather isn’t letting up as yet another winter storm takes aim at Southern Ontario over the Family Day long weekend. This system will arrive in multiple waves, beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday. By the time it moves out late Sunday, much of Southern Ontario could be buried under as much as 60 cm of snow.

Strong winds will develop throughout Sunday morning into the afternoon, with gusts reaching 50 to 80 km/h in some areas. These powerful winds, combined with heavy snowfall, will create dangerous whiteout conditions and may even reach blizzard criteria. Travel is expected to become difficult as early as Saturday morning, with conditions steadily worsening through the night and into Sunday.

The most hazardous conditions are expected Sunday morning and afternoon, as intense snowfall rates are combined with strong wind gusts, making all non-essential travel extremely dangerous. Highway closures are highly likely in the hardest-hit regions as plows struggle to keep up with rapid snowfall rates, while blowing and drifting snow significantly reduces visibility.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm's exact track, which will determine where the heaviest snowfall occurs. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and possibly parts of the Golden Horseshoe could see periods of freezing rain or ice pellets by late Sunday morning. While this would create its own hazards, any mixing would also lower overall snowfall totals.

As of now, Eastern and parts of Central Ontario appear to be in line for the highest snowfall amounts. Combined two-day snowfall totals could range from 30 to 60 cm by Sunday night, with 5-10 cm expected on Saturday and an additional 25-50 cm possible on Sunday.

The storm will get underway Saturday morning as steady snow moves into Deep Southwestern Ontario from Michigan. It will spread into London and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) by late morning. Some light flurries may reach Central and Eastern Ontario, but the more persistent snowfall will remain south of Lake Simcoe.

At this stage, conditions may not seem too severe, leading to the false impression that the storm has been overhyped. However, don’t be fooled—snowfall rates will gradually increase through the afternoon, reaching 1-2 cm per hour and steadily accumulating.

By mid-afternoon Saturday, light to moderate snowfall will have spread across most of Southern Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will be concentrated over Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, while Central and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, may only see scattered flurries.

There are indications that parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Windsor, Chatham, and possibly London—may see a transition to ice pellets or freezing rain. Meanwhile, Kitchener, Hamilton, and the GTA should remain primarily snow.

Heading into the evening, the storm’s moisture supply will intensify as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico, keeping snow steady across Southern Ontario. However, Central and Eastern Ontario may experience more scattered snowfall during this time. The most persistent snow bands are expected to set up along the Windsor-London-Hamilton corridor.

Some mixing could still occur near the Lake Erie shoreline, particularly in Leamington and the southern Niagara region, though it remains uncertain how far inland it may extend. If the mixing line pushes north, areas such as Windsor could also see freezing rain.

By the end of Saturday, snowfall totals are expected to range from 5 to 10 cm across much of Southern Ontario, with locally higher amounts of up to 15 cm in areas benefiting from lake enhancement like Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see lower totals, between 2 and 5 cm, as the first wave of snow stays focused farther south.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight Saturday as even more moisture-laden precipitation moves in from Michigan. Snowfall rates will increase during the pre-dawn hours, starting in the southwest around midnight before progressing east and north through the morning.

There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the extent of mixing along the Lake Erie shoreline, but there is a possibility of significant ice accretion in parts of Windsor and the Niagara region.

By late Sunday morning, the system is expected to intensify rapidly as the low-pressure center tracks south of the Great Lakes. This intensification will result in significantly higher snowfall rates, especially in the GTA, Niagara region, and Central Ontario, including Barrie, Muskoka, and Peterborough.

Snowfall rates could reach 5-10 cm per hour, making it impossible for road crews to keep up. Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley will see steady snow increase throughout Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.

Adding to the severity of the storm, strong wind gusts of 50-80 km/h will develop through Sunday morning, with the highest gusts expected in Central and Eastern Ontario. These winds, combined with intense snowfall rates, will almost certainly lead to blizzard conditions in some areas.

Visibility will be near zero, with blowing and drifting snow making travel dangerous. All non-essential travel should be avoided on Sunday morning and afternoon, as highway closures are likely in the hardest-hit regions. With snow falling at rates of 5-10 cm per hour, it will be extremely easy to become stranded, as plows will struggle to keep roads passable.

Despite being less than 48 hours away, there is still some uncertainty in the storm's track and timing. Different forecast models continue to show varying scenarios, which could impact snowfall totals and the extent of mixing.

The short-range American model (HRRR), which provides detailed hourly forecasts, aligns closely with the Canadian and European models. These models suggest a more southern track, keeping the GTA and much of Southern Ontario primarily in the snow zone.

However, another American model (NAM) suggests a more northern track with a later arrival. If this scenario plays out, the mixing line would shift farther north, bringing ice pellets or freezing rain from London to Hamilton and into the GTA. This would reduce snowfall totals in these areas but create hazardous icy conditions.

This model also suggests the mixing could extend along the Lake Ontario shoreline into parts of Southeastern Ontario, including Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville. While this scenario is less likely, it’s still worth monitoring.

Additionally, the NAM model points to a significant icing event for Hamilton and the Niagara region, with potential ice accretion of 10-15 mm. If this happens, localized power outages and tree damage could occur.

The model also suggests that while some forecasts indicate the heaviest snow will arrive early Sunday, this scenario shifts the worst conditions to the afternoon in Southwestern Ontario and the GTA, extending into the evening for Eastern Ontario.

Regardless of the final track, conditions should improve as snow tapers off from west to east late Sunday evening, with lingering snow in Eastern Ontario into early Monday morning. However, lake-effect snow could quickly develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the system exits.

By the time this storm is over, a wide swath of Eastern and Central Ontario could see 30-60 cm of fresh snow, including the accumulation from both Saturday and Sunday.

For Southwestern Ontario and the GTA—including Sarnia, London, Kitchener, Hamilton, and Toronto—snowfall totals will likely range from 20-40 cm. However, if mixing occurs on Sunday, snowfall amounts could drop to 15-30 cm or even lower, depending on how extensive the ice pellets or freezing rain become.

The lowest snowfall totals will likely be in Deep Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Erie shoreline, where freezing rain and ice pellets will reduce overall accumulation. Areas such as Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, St. Thomas, and Niagara Falls could see between 15-30 cm of snow, depending on how much mixing occurs.

We are closely monitoring the latest forecast data and will provide a more detailed breakdown of Sunday’s snowfall totals in an updated forecast on Saturday. Stay tuned for further updates.

February 14, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Friday, February 14, 2025

February 14, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are multiple cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://www.mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in all zones.
Trillium Lakelands: Busses are cancelled for Zones 4 & 5.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: Busses are cancelled in North Wellington (Division 3) and Dufferin County & Robert F. Hall (Division 4).

French Schools

Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Disruption to school transport and/or the opening of certain schools in the following region: Simcoe
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled for the Region of Bruce-Grey and Huron Perth of Middlesex Region
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled for the Region of Simcoe.

February 13, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Bus Cancellations Possible on Friday in Southwestern & Central Ontario

February 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/14/bus-cancellations

Snow squalls are expected to intensify late Thursday and continue into Friday, bringing hazardous winter conditions to areas near Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. These squalls will be capable of producing whiteout conditions with near-zero visibility, making travel extremely dangerous. In addition, snowfall accumulation could be rapid, leading to difficult and potentially impassable road conditions.

Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for several regions, highlighting the potential for snowfall totals between 20 and 40 cm by Friday afternoon. Given the expected intensity of these squalls, morning road conditions could be treacherous. As a result, school bus cancellations are highly likely in the hardest-hit areas.

The Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County are at the highest risk for bus cancellations, as these areas are expected to experience the most persistent and intense snowfall overnight. Surrounding regions will also need to keep a close eye on conditions, as the likelihood of cancellations will depend on how strong the squalls become and whether significant snowfall accumulates before the morning commute.

Please note: We are aware that some school boards have a PA day on Friday. If your school board is affected, you can disregard this forecast. However, we continue to provide these updates regardless of PA days, as not all school boards follow the same schedule.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound & Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Durham District School Board (North)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 13, 2025

Will It Ever End? Squalls Could Bring Up to Another 40cm of Snow by the End of Friday to Parts of Southern Ontario

February 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Are you enjoying winter yet, Ontario? ❄️ It feels like we've been stuck in an endless cycle of snow, with relentless snow squalls hammering the snowbelt regions.

Even outside the snowbelts, much of Southern Ontario joined in this week as a major winter storm dumped over 20 cm of snow across the region overnight into Thursday morning.

And the snowy pattern isn’t letting up anytime soon. More lake effect snow is on the way to end the week, followed by a potentially significant snowstorm this weekend.

The lake effect machine is expected to fire back up Thursday evening, becoming more organized overnight into Friday morning. Current indications suggest a strong snow squall will develop, targeting the Bruce Peninsula and stretching into parts of Simcoe County.

While squall activity should begin to wind down by Friday afternoon, areas that have already been hit hard this season—such as Orillia, Midland, Wiarton, Lion’s Head, and Tobermory—could see another 15 to 25 cm of snow. If the squall locks into place for an extended period, localized totals of up to 40 cm are possible.

As of early Thursday evening, bands of lake effect snow are already forming off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These will continue to shift around throughout the evening, delivering bursts of heavy snowfall to different areas.

Right now, it looks like the heaviest snowfall will be concentrated across the Bruce Peninsula and along the southeastern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Collingwood, Barrie, Angus, and Keswick. Additional, weaker bands may impact regions east of Lake Huron, from Owen Sound to Goderich.

By midnight, models suggest that a narrow but intense squall could set up, stretching from the Bruce Peninsula, over Georgian Bay, and into Barrie. However, there’s still uncertainty about its exact strength and how stationary it will be overnight. Some models show it drifting north toward Midland and Orillia, while others keep it in place longer.

If the squall aligns just right, it could connect with both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, allowing it to tap into additional moisture. This could make it stronger than expected, potentially bringing more snow to Barrie than initially forecasted. Right now, Barrie sits right on the edge between significant snowfall and minimal accumulation.

By Friday morning, the squall will likely continue hammering the Bruce Peninsula and Simcoe County but may have shifted slightly north, putting Tobermory, Midland, and Orillia in the bullseye for heavy snow during the late morning.

Depending on its strength, the squall could even extend into portions of Durham and the Kawartha Lakes at times. This squall may remain stationary for several hours, with snowfall rates reaching 5-10 cm per hour.

It won’t take long for roads to become impassable, especially along the Highway 400 and Highway 11 corridors. Plows will struggle to keep up with such intense snowfall rates, and whiteout conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you can, stay home—this is the kind of snow that can lead to major travel disruptions and accidents.

By early Friday afternoon, the squall should gradually weaken as winds shift and become less favourable for lake effect snow.

As with any lake effect event, snowfall totals will be highly variable, depending on where these narrow snow bands set up.

The hardest-hit areas are expected to be across the Bruce Peninsula, including Tobermory, Lion’s Head, and Wiarton, extending into Simcoe County in areas like Midland, Washago, and Orillia. These regions could see 15 to 25 cm, with localized totals near 40 cm possible in central Simcoe County, closer to Georgian Bay.

Surrounding areas—including Grey-Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties east of Lake Huron—could see 5 to 15 cm, though some spots may see little to no snow due to how localized these bands are. Southern Muskoka, portions of Kawartha Lakes, and Durham Region may also receive up to 5 to 10 cm in some areas.

The rest of Southern Ontario should see less than 5 cm of snow over the next 24 hours, as the lake effect snow stays confined to the snowbelt regions.

While the lake effect snow wraps up Friday, a much bigger storm could be on the way this weekend. A potential multi-day snowfall event is on track to begin Saturday, and continue into Sunday.

Right now, there’s still uncertainty regarding snowfall totals and the exact timing of the worst conditions, but early indications suggest that much of Southern Ontario—particularly Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe—could see 20-30 cm or more by the end of the weekend.

We’re waiting on the latest model data this evening and will have a preliminary forecast on this potential snowstorm later today or early Friday. Stay tuned!

February 12, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations & School Closures for Thursday, February 13, 2025

February 12, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several cancellations and closures, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Durham Public & Durham Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: All busses are cancelled for the City of Windsor (Area A) and the County of Essex (Area B).
HaIton Public & Halton Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
HamiIton Wentworth Public & Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: All bussed are cancelled.
Niagara Public & Niagara Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Ottawa CarIeton Public & Ottawa Catholic: All school bus/van transportation is cancelled.
PeeI Public: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: All busses are cancelled this morning. Busses will run this afternoon for students attending school.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Toronto Public & Toronto Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Tri-Board: All busses are cancelled.
Trillium Lakelands: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
WaterIoo Public & WaterIoo Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
York Public & York Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.

French Schools

Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Conseil scolaire de district catholique Centre-Sud: All busses are cancelled and some schools are closed. Please visit this link for more details: https://cscmonavenir.ca/ecole/
Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien (CSDCEO): All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: School transportation is cancelled today for the following areas: Arnprior, Brockville, Carleton Place, Almonte, Renfrew County (schools in Pembroke), United Counties of Prescott-Russell, Kingston, Marionville, Merrickville and Kemptville, Ottawa, and Trenton
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: All busses are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): All busses are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: All busses are cancelled and some schools are closed. Please visit this link for more details: https://infobus.francobus.ca/cancellations.aspx
Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: All busses are cancelled.

February 12, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread Bus Cancellations & School Closures Likely on Thursday as Winter Storm Bears Down on Southern Ontario

February 12, 2025/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article:

LIST OF CANCELLATIONS AND CLOSURES

A significant winter storm is set to impact Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the night, and continuing into Thursday morning.

Environment Canada has issued widespread winter storm warnings, snowfall warnings, and freezing rain warnings across the region, signalling the potential for hazardous conditions.

With snowfall totals expected to range between 20 and 40 cm by Thursday morning across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario, road conditions will likely be extremely treacherous.

Snowfall rates could exceed 5 cm per hour at times, making it difficult for snowplows to keep up. Even though the most intense conditions will occur Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, the aftermath will still pose significant challenges for travel.

Given the severity of this storm, there is a very high likelihood that school buses will be cancelled across most of Southern Ontario. In fact, the probability of widespread bus cancellations across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario is over 90%.

School closures are also a strong possibility, particularly with Environment Canada's warnings emphasizing the dangers of travel on Thursday morning. Some school boards may even choose to announce cancellations proactively tonight. We will update this article if any school boards confirm closures in advance.

In the Golden Horseshoe and Niagara region, school boards tend to be more cautious when it comes to bus cancellations and school closures, as urban areas typically have better snow-clearing operations. However, there is also a chance of mixed precipitation in these regions, which could lower snowfall totals to around 10-20 cm.

This uncertainty makes cancellations less of a guarantee compared to other parts of the province. As a result, we’ve placed the likelihood of school bus cancellations at around 75% for Halton (South), Peel (South), York, Durham (South), and KPR (Clarington).

Meanwhile, for Toronto, Hamilton, and Niagara, it’s a 50/50 call and could go either way depending on how the storm unfolds overnight.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, and London, also has a slightly lower probability of bus cancellations, sitting at around 75%. The system is expected to taper off earlier in these regions, and some areas could transition to rain by morning.

If that happens, conditions might improve enough for buses to operate. However, given the ongoing warnings from Environment Canada, school boards in these areas may still err on the side of caution and cancel transportation regardless.

Stay tuned for updates as the storm progresses, and check back for confirmation from school boards on closures and cancellations tonight and Thursday morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 11, 2025

High Impact Winter Storm on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday With Up to 40cm of Snow & Freezing Rain

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Confidence is growing that Southern Ontario is on track for what could be the most widespread and significant winter storm of the season so far. That said, there hasn’t been much competition in that regard, as most of this winter’s snowfall has come from localized snow squalls. However, a shift in the weather pattern has placed the region in an active storm track, and Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time delivering a disruptive winter storm right in the middle of the week.

Earlier, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system, which would have influenced snowfall amounts in different areas. However, in the past 24 hours, forecast models have begun to align on a more consistent storm track. Interestingly, the latest data supports what we initially projected, meaning there hasn’t been a major shift in the forecast.

Widespread snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm are expected from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley between Wednesday and Thursday. In the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario, precipitation will likely begin as snow, but there is potential for ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain to mix in. This could limit snowfall totals, especially along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the extent of mixing remains a key uncertainty. It could go either way. Right now, we’re forecasting 10 to 20 cm of snow, but if the mixing line stays south, snowfall amounts could surpass expectations, reaching 25 to 30 cm.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and extending into the Niagara region, models suggest several hours of freezing rain Wednesday evening and overnight. Some localized areas could see ice accretion of 2 to 5 mm, leading to slippery, untreated surfaces and hazardous road conditions.

The storm is expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon, with scattered precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario between 2 and 4 PM. While most areas will initially see snow, some models are aggressive in bringing freezing rain into Windsor and Chatham by late afternoon.

Before the main storm arrives, lake-effect snow may develop off Lake Ontario, affecting the Burlington and Hamilton corridor Wednesday morning into early afternoon. System snow should reach the GTA just before the evening rush hour, making for a difficult commute.

The latest model data has also increased wind projections, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall, this could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Non-essential travel should be avoided starting in the late afternoon, with conditions deteriorating further into the evening.

By mid to late evening, snow will have spread across most of Southern Ontario, including Central and Eastern Ontario. A key feature to monitor will be the movement of the mixing line.

Current data shows a freezing rain corridor stretching from Leamington through Chatham and along the Lake Erie shoreline, with a narrow band of ice pellets from Windsor through just south of London and into Hamilton.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Sarnia, London, Kitchener, and the GTA. Snowfall rates will intensify after 9–10 PM, increasing from 1–2 cm per hour to 2–4 cm per hour. This will make it challenging for snowplows to keep up.

After midnight, the mixing line may push north into parts of the GTA, bringing ice pellets and freezing rain to locations such as London, Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto for several hours. However, this transition looks to be confined near the Lake Ontario shoreline, meaning snowfall will likely dominate farther inland.

Freezing rain will continue across Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara region, while heavy snow steadily blankets Central and Eastern Ontario overnight.

The system will begin its exit Thursday morning, with snow tapering off in Southwestern Ontario first. However, snow will continue across Central and Eastern Ontario.

In the Niagara region and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, mixing will remain a concern into the early morning hours. However, by 4–6 AM, colder air will push in, flipping precipitation back to snow. Any previously fallen precipitation may refreeze as temperatures drop, creating hazardous road conditions.

Expect treacherous travel conditions on Thursday morning. Roads will be slushy and icy in areas that saw mixing, while heavy snow will make roads impassable further north. Widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely.

Eastern Ontario will hold onto light to moderate snow through the late morning. However, models indicate some potential for mixing in the Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall areas. This could result in light icing from freezing rain before a final transition back to snow.

Most of Southern Ontario will finally see an end to precipitation Thursday, aside from some lingering lake-effect snow near Lake Huron.

Based on the latest data, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Central and Eastern Ontario. A widespread 20–40 cm is forecast across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. However, totals closer to 40 cm are most probable in Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, where there’s even a slight chance of locally exceeding 40–50 cm.

Central and Southwestern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce, Kitchener, York Region, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Peterborough, will likely receive 20–30 cm, with some areas near Lake Simcoe potentially exceeding 30 cm.

The exception will be the Lake Ontario shoreline and the International border, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Lower snowfall ratios and a higher risk of mixing could keep totals below 20 cm. However, if mixing remains minimal, this area could exceed forecasts.

The snowfall forecast becomes more uncertain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, where multiple factors create a ‘boom or bust’ scenario. The GTA will start with heavy snow, likely reaching 10 cm fairly easily unless there’s a drastic shift in the storm track. The big question is how much more accumulates beyond that.

Some models suggest that if mixing does not occur, parts of the GTA could see 20–30 cm by Thursday morning. However, given the likelihood of overnight mixing, we expect totals to stay below 20 cm, which is why our official forecast remains at 10–20 cm.

London and Sarnia sit on the boundary between significant snow and mixed precipitation. The most probable outcome is 15–20 cm, though an overperformance remains possible.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, snowfall amounts will be lower, with less than 10 cm expected. However, these areas will likely see prolonged freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accretion along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Models vary on how intense the freezing rain will be. Some project as much as 10 mm of ice accretion, but this seems unlikely given the presence of mixed precipitation and the relatively short duration of freezing rain. Our official forecast calls for 2–5 mm of ice accretion, though isolated pockets could see 7–10 mm if freezing rain persists longer than expected.

February 11, 2025

'High' Risk for 30-40 CM of Snow for Ottawa & Parts of Ontario Wednesday to Friday Says Environment Canada

February 11, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is calling for a major winter storm to impact Ontario beginning Wednesday, bringing heavy snowfall, ice, and hazardous travel conditions across the province. The storm could arrive earlier than originally expected, affecting the Wednesday evening commute in several regions. High-impact winter weather will persist through Thursday, with lake-effect snow squalls expected to develop late Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Southwestern Ontario to areas northeast of Toronto:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
Impact: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic, snow-covered and slippery roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will move into southern Ontario earlier than initially forecast, with accumulating snowfall beginning in the afternoon. This could lead to deteriorating travel conditions during the evening rush hour, particularly in urban areas. Snowfall will continue through the night into Thursday, with additional accumulations expected.

Areas near and north of Lake Erie:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible significant rush hour disruptions, snow-covered and icy roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon but may mix with freezing rain or rain later in the evening. This transition could lead to icy surfaces, increasing travel risks into early Thursday morning. The precipitation type will depend on the storm’s exact track, which remains uncertain.

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Central and eastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Dangerous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, and transportation delays
Confidence: High
Impact Severity: High

Heavy snow, possibly exceeding 30 to 40 cm in some areas, is expected. Snowfall rates may be intense, particularly on Thursday morning, leading to significant disruptions.

Central, eastern, and northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snowfall totals of 15 to 30 cm are possible, with peak snowfall rates occurring overnight into Thursday morning.

Eastern Ontario near Lake Ontario:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected. However, areas closer to Lake Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, limiting total snowfall amounts.

Regions near and east of Lake Huron towards Peterborough:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow, possibly heavy at times, will continue through the morning, with total accumulations of 15 to 25 cm.

Southwestern Ontario towards the Greater Toronto Area:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Potentially difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow will taper off into Thursday morning, but areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, which could result in icy road conditions. Areas that remain all snow may face significant travel impacts Thursday morning.

Northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

This region will be on the northern edge of the storm. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected, but if the system tracks further north, higher totals may occur. Conversely, a more southerly track would result in lower accumulations.

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Following the main winter storm, lake-effect snow squalls are expected to develop late Thursday into Friday. These squalls could produce intense snowfall rates, strong winds, and poor visibility, further impacting travel.

Southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Strong lake-effect snow squalls could develop, exacerbating travel conditions, especially if significant snowfall occurs with the preceding storm.

East of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, slippery roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Localized snow squalls could develop, with rapidly changing weather conditions.

Near Lake Superior:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, snow-covered roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Lake-effect snow bands are expected to be highly variable, shifting frequently, which should help limit overall accumulations in any one area.

Key Takeaways:

A significant winter storm will impact Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy snow, ice, and hazardous travel conditions.

Urban areas will likely see rush hour impacts Wednesday evening due to an earlier-than-expected arrival.
Snowfall amounts could reach 30 to 40 cm in eastern Ontario, with 15 to 30 cm across much of central and northeastern Ontario.
Areas near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could see ice accumulation due to freezing rain.
Lake-effect snow squalls will follow on Friday, compounding travel challenges.

Be safe, folks! We promise that winter should end sometime around spring… 🥶

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see.

February 11, 2025

Major Winter Storm on Track to Dump Up to 40cm of Snow Across Most of Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Get your shovels ready, Southern Ontario! What many would consider our first true winter storm of the season is on the horizon. This moisture-laden system is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy snowfall across a large portion of our region.

There’s still some uncertainty in the exact track, which will determine who sees the heaviest snow, but confidence is growing that much of Southern Ontario will experience significant impacts from this storm. Travel will likely become hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and widespread school bus cancellations—and even full school closures—are almost certain on Thursday.

Based on the latest data, the heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Accumulations will likely range between 20 to 40 cm, with some localized pockets potentially exceeding 40 cm by the time the snow tapers off early Thursday afternoon.

The most challenging part of this forecast comes down to a narrow corridor from London through Hamilton, into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along the Lake Ontario shoreline, and into extreme Eastern Ontario along the international border. These areas are likely to start off with snow, but depending on the storm’s track, a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain could occur during the evening and overnight.

The exact snowfall amounts in this corridor remain highly uncertain, as even a fraction of a degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between 5 cm and 30 cm of snow.

The risk of freezing rain also appears significant for areas in deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, where several hours of ice accretion could result in hazardous road conditions and localized power outages.

The storm will begin impacting Southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial bands of snow spreading into deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, and London. By the mid-to-late afternoon, snow will have moved into Hamilton, Niagara, and the Greater Toronto Area, just in time for the evening commute.

Steady snowfall will continue through the dinner hour, with snowfall rates gradually increasing as the system spreads further across the region. Central and Eastern Ontario will see snow begin around the dinner hour into the early evening, while the Ottawa Valley may not see the first flakes until mid-to-late evening.

Snow will continue throughout the night across much of the region, with varying intensity. Unlike some past storms, this event isn’t expected to bring extreme snowfall rates, with accumulations of around 2 to 4 cm per hour at most. However, the prolonged nature of this storm, lasting 12 to 16 hours in many areas, will allow totals to build up significantly.

Another key factor in determining final snowfall amounts will be how far north the mixing line extends into Southern Ontario. Earlier model runs suggested a more northern track, which would allow warmer air to push into areas along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, leading to a transition from snow to ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain.

However, more recent model data from Monday evening has trended slightly further south, reducing the risk of mixing for some areas. That said, some models, including the American (NAM) and European models, still show a more northern mixing line, which could bring ice and rain into parts of deep Southwestern Ontario, London, and Hamilton.

If this occurs, Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see several hours of freezing rain, resulting in ice buildup on untreated surfaces, power lines, and roads.

On the other hand, the Canadian (RGEM) model, along with the higher-resolution American NAM 3km model, suggest a more southern storm track, which would keep most of Southern Ontario in the snow zone.

If this scenario plays out, snowfall accumulations could be much higher in places like London, Hamilton, and the Golden Horseshoe, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm and minimal mixing.

Some models also indicate the possibility of mixing slightly north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence River, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall, which could lower snow totals in these areas. However, the latest data suggests this region may stay entirely on the snowy side of the system.

As the storm progresses overnight, those areas that remain on the snow side will continue to see accumulation through early Thursday morning. Snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 4 cm per hour in heavier bands but will likely average closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.

Fortunately, winds won’t be particularly strong, with gusts expected to range from 20 to 40 km/h at most. While some blowing snow is possible, full-blown blizzard conditions are not expected with this storm.

By mid-morning Thursday, high-resolution models suggest a final burst of heavier snow around the Golden Horseshoe, Lake Simcoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall rates could briefly spike to 4 to 6 cm per hour as the back end of the system moves through during the morning rush hour.

Travel conditions will likely be very poor on Thursday morning, and all non-essential travel should be avoided. Widespread school bus cancellations are almost a certainty given these conditions.

A rapid improvement is expected in Southwestern Ontario by late morning, with snowfall tapering off to light flurries. However, it will take time for road crews to clear the heavy snowfall, so road conditions may remain hazardous into the early afternoon.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, snow will linger into the early afternoon before finally winding down around midday for the GTA and Central Ontario and mid-afternoon for the Ottawa Valley.

By the time the storm wraps up, a broad region across Southern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline, Sarnia, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, and the Ottawa Valley, will likely see between 20 and 40 cm of fresh snow. Mixing is unlikely to be a factor in these areas, though there’s always a slight chance of a last-minute shift in the storm track.

The biggest uncertainty lies within a narrow corridor that includes London, Woodstock, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. This area will likely begin with snow on Wednesday but could see ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain mix in during the late evening and overnight hours, which would reduce total snowfall amounts.

A conservative estimate for this region is at least 10 cm of snow, though some areas, particularly along the northern edge of this zone, could see totals closer to 20 to 30 cm. The current model trends lean toward a slightly more southern storm track, but we are waiting to see if this pattern holds before making final adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

For Windsor, Chatham, and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Niagara, a mix of snow and freezing rain is expected. Some locations could experience several hours of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion of 4 to 8 mm, which may cause localized power outages. However, if the mixing line remains further south, these areas could still end up seeing significant snowfall, possibly exceeding 20 cm.

The bottom line is that while we have high confidence in a significant winter storm, the local impacts will ultimately depend on the storm’s exact track, which may not become fully clear until just before the system moves in.

A more detailed forecast with refined snowfall and freezing rain estimates will be released late Tuesday as newer model data becomes available.

February 09, 2025

Impactful Winter Storm Possible Says Environment Canada For Parts of Ontario This Week With the Risk of Heavy Snow, Ice, and Dangerous Travel Conditions

February 09, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is forecasting a potentially impactful winter storm for parts of Ontario that could bring a mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and dangerous travel conditions. Potentially hazardous winter weather could begin as early as Wednesday evening and continue into the weekend with snow squalls behind the main system. Some areas could see snowfall totals exceeding 30 cm, while others may face icy conditions due to freezing rain. Blowing snow and strong winds could lead to whiteout conditions, power outages, and road closures. While there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the exact track and intensity of this storm, it’s certainly worth discussing and paying attention to over the next few days.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue through Monday, with some areas receiving an additional 30 cm. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow. Snow squalls will taper off before Tuesday morning.

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Afternoon and evening
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls south of the area may move north Monday afternoon, with local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm possible before they shift back south Monday evening. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow.

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

Hazard(s): Snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday afternoon
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue into Monday afternoon, with some areas receiving an additional 20 cm.

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

Hazard(s): Snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls ongoing over the Bruce Peninsula will taper off Monday morning. Snow squalls over regions southeast of Georgian Bay will shift north Monday afternoon. Local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm are possible.

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will move in Wednesday evening. Snowfall could be heavy at times, with 15 to 30 cm possible. Blowing snow may reduce visibility. If the system tracks further north, areas along the north shore of Lake Ontario could see ice pellets and freezing rain instead of heavy snow. If it tracks south, snowfall amounts may be lower.

Southwestern and Central Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 10 to 20 cm, with potential blowing snow reducing visibility. Snow squalls may develop behind the system Thursday afternoon, especially southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

North Shore of Lake Erie

Hazard(s): Snow, freezing rain
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday morning
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, icy surfaces on roads and walkways.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A mix of heavy snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain is possible, depending on the storm’s track. A more southern track may bring up to 15 cm of snow, while a northern track could result in more freezing rain. Forecast confidence is low, and updates will be necessary.

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 5 to 15 cm, with blowing snow reducing visibility. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

Hazard(s): Extreme cold
Timing: Wednesday morning
Impact(s): Risk of hypothermia and frostbite if outside for prolonged periods without adequate protection.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: Wind chill values of -40 to -45 are possible, creating dangerous conditions for exposed skin. Proper winter gear is essential.

While quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence continues to increase that parts of Ontario will experience yet another high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor for updates as this develops.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

February 09, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Extra Extra Long Weekend for Some Students in Southern Ontario With Bus Cancellations Possible on Monday

February 09, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The lake effect machine is set to roar back to life late Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of intense snow squalls to the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the strength and exact positioning of the heaviest squalls, conditions look severe enough to force school bus cancellations on Monday in the hardest-hit areas. After buses were already cancelled last Thursday and Friday, this could mark a third straight missed school day for some students.

Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall watches and warnings stretching from Muskoka through Simcoe County and into Grey-Bruce. Some of these alerts warn of 20 to 50 cm of snowfall by the end of Monday, with blowing snow reducing visibility and making for treacherous driving conditions. With weather this severe, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to safely operate in these regions.

The highest probability of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula, where heavy squalls are virtually guaranteed. In Simcoe County, the likelihood of cancellations remains high, but it all depends on exactly where the squalls develop. Some areas could get buried in snow, while others may see far less accumulation, leading to possible discrepancies in cancellations across different school zones.

For Muskoka and the Kawartha Lakes, snow squall watches are in effect, but the most intense snowfall is expected to stay south and west. While these areas won’t be the primary targets of this lake effect activity, there’s still a chance of bus cancellations depending on how conditions unfold overnight.

Outside of the snowbelt regions, the rest of Southern Ontario should remain unaffected by lake-effect snow on Monday. No school bus cancellations are expected in areas beyond the direct impact zone.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Kincardine & Hanover)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, South CKL & Haliburton)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Durham District School Board (North)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 07, 2025

Snowy System Brings Double Digit Snowfall Accumulation to Greater Toronto Area & Southwestern Ontario This Weekend

February 07, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While many parts of Southern Ontario have been hit hard by snow squalls this winter, others have barely seen any accumulation.

The snowbelt regions east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay have faced relentless lake-effect snow, while areas like Deep Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and Southeastern Ontario have largely remained outside the squall zones.

The reason? This winter has been dominated by localized snow squalls rather than widespread storms. The extreme cold throughout January kept the storm track well south of the Great Lakes, shielding much of the region from major systems.

Aside from the occasional Alberta Clipper, it’s been relatively quiet. But that’s about to change as we shift into a more active storm track that places Southern Ontario directly in its path.

A moderately strong snowy system is on track to bring steady, accumulating snowfall across a wider area, including the GTA—one of the least snowy regions so far this season. Snow is expected to begin Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest accumulation occurring Saturday evening.

In fact, this system could bring Toronto its largest one-day snowfall of the season. The city’s current highest daily total sits at just 6.6 cm, recorded in early December. But with this storm, a widespread 10-15 cm of snow is looking increasingly likely, with some areas west of Lake Ontario possibly approaching 20 cm due to lake enhancement.

The first snow bands will push into Southern Ontario from the west by mid-afternoon Saturday, with flurries likely developing east of Lake Huron between 2-4 PM before spreading into the GTA around the dinner hour.

At first, the snowfall will be light, but intensity will gradually increase through the late afternoon and early evening as stronger snow bands move in. Windsor and Chatham could see some mixed precipitation, with a chance of freezing rain or drizzle before switching over to snow.

By early evening, snowfall will expand across most of Southern Ontario, bringing steady accumulation.

The heaviest snow is expected west of Lake Ontario, stretching into Kitchener and Goderich, where snowfall rates could reach 1-2 cm per hour.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUST** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Winds gusting 40-50 km/h along the Lake Erie shoreline Saturday evening may not be extreme, but they could still create minor blowing snow when combined with the steady snowfall, making travel conditions tricky.

Snow will continue falling through the evening, gradually spreading toward Eastern Ontario. While Ottawa might see some light snow, accumulation should remain minimal.

The heaviest snow in Eastern Ontario will focus along the Lake Ontario shoreline, including Belleville and Kingston.

As we approach midnight, snow will begin tapering off from west to east, with Lake Huron regions clearing out first. For the GTA, heavier snow may persist a few hours past midnight before gradually weakening.

By early Sunday morning, the system will have moved out of most of Southern Ontario, with only lingering light snow possible in Eastern Ontario.

Recent model trends suggest a stronger system than initially expected, though there remains some uncertainty. Forecasts have bounced between 5-10 cm and 15-25 cm in different model runs.

The current consensus suggests a general 10-15 cm corridor extending from Lake Huron through Kitchener, the Golden Horseshoe, and into the Kingston area, with localized pockets nearing 20 cm.

For areas further north, including Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, and Brockville, as well as Sarnia and London, 5-10 cm of snow is expected.

The least snowfall will be in the Ottawa Valley, where less than 5 cm is likely. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor and Chatham, will see the lowest totals, with 2-5 cm possible, along with the risk of freezing rain.

This will be one of the most widespread snowfalls of the season, especially for regions that have barely seen measurable snow this winter. Stay tuned for further updates as the system approaches.

February 07, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Friday, February 7, 2025

February 07, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are several cancellations. Please visit this link for more details: https://www.mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St. Andrew, St. Peter, St. Benedict and R. F. Hall are cancelled
Durham Public & Durham Catholic: Busses are cancelled in Zones 1, 2, and 3.
PeeI Public: All transportation to RF Hall SS is cancelled today due to cancellations in Dufferin County. Due to poor road conditions, STOPR is unable to service some gravel roads in rural areas, monitor https://businfo.stopr.ca/Cancellations.aspx for runs effected.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Madawaska area transportation services are cancelled
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in the North, West, and Central Zones.
Tri-Board: There are some morning-only cancellations. Please visit this link for more details: https://triboard.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts
Trillium LakeIands: Busses are cancelled in Zones 1, 3, 4, & 5.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: Transportation services are cancelled today in Divisions 3 and 4.

French Schools

Conseil scolaire Viamonde & Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe, Durham (Zones 1, 2 & 3), and Bruce-Grey

February 06, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Snow Squalls on Friday May Give a Long Weekend to Some Students in Southern Ontario

February 06, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay tonight and continue into Friday, bringing periods of heavy snowfall and reduced visibility. Some areas could see up to 25 cm of accumulation by the time the squalls wind down.

With widespread snow squall watches and warnings in effect for Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, and Muskoka, there is a strong possibility that school boards in these regions will cancel buses on Friday morning. Hazardous road conditions, combined with a forecast that calls for ongoing snowfall throughout the day, will likely influence their decision.

The highest likelihood of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County, where the worst conditions are expected right around the time when school boards must make their morning call. Roads in these areas may be heavily snow-covered, and blowing snow could further reduce visibility, making travel unsafe for school buses.

For surrounding areas, including Barrie, Owen Sound, and southern Muskoka, the chance of bus cancellations remains uncertain. While snow squalls may impact these regions, conditions may not be severe enough for widespread cancellations. However, with a snow squall watch or warning in place, some school boards may choose to err on the side of caution.

In Eastern Ontario, snowfall accumulations will be minor compared to the snowbelt, with up to 5 cm expected overnight. However, strong wind gusts could create localized blowing snow, reducing visibility in some areas. Rural school boards, particularly Tri-Board, which has a history of being overly cautious during winter weather events, could opt to cancel buses if road crews struggle to clear snow in time for the morning commute.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely. Snow squall activity will remain highly localized to the traditional snowbelt regions, leaving most other areas unaffected by significant snowfall or travel disruptions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Southampton)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)
Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Durham District School Board (North)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, Haliburton & South CKL)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Tri-Board (Central Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)
Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)
Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Weather Forecasts & Articles

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

French Schools

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

French Schools

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

French Schools

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

French Schools

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Key Takeaways:

Monday, February 10, 2025

Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

Southwestern and Central Ontario

North Shore of Lake Erie

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

French Schools

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