'Ice Day' Forecast: Parts of Southern Ontario May See School Bus Cancellations on Thursday Due to Lingering Freezing Rain Impacts

NOTE: SOME SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THE EARLIER ICE STORM. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD FOR A DETAILED LIST OF SCHOOL CLOSURES

A messy weather system is currently sweeping across Southern Ontario, bringing a mix of freezing rain, ice pellets, and heavy snow. As temperatures begin to rise later this evening and into Thursday morning, much of the precipitation is expected to transition to plain rain, gradually improving road conditions across the region.

Although freezing rain is not expected to persist into the Thursday morning commute, some roads—especially in rural parts of Central and Eastern Ontario—could still be icy. This lingering risk means there’s still a chance that school bus transportation could be impacted in a few regions, depending on how quickly conditions improve overnight.

It’s important to note that localized school closures remain in effect across some of the hardest-hit communities in Central Ontario. These closures are mainly due to ongoing power outages caused by the earlier ice storm. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, please check directly with your local school board, as the situation continues to evolve.

One area has already confirmed a cancellation for Thursday: Trillium Lakelands District School Board has announced that school transportation will be cancelled in both City of Kawartha Lakes zones. Ongoing recovery efforts and the continued lack of hydro have made transportation logistics extremely difficult. Communication towers remain down in the area, meaning bus drivers are unable to safely coordinate with bus companies, leading to the decision to cancel.

Looking further north, the highest probability of school bus cancellations lies in the Sudbury, North Bay, and Parry Sound regions. In these areas, freezing rain is expected to continue later into the night, only switching over to rain closer to the morning hours. As a result, road conditions are likely to remain icy by morning. The school boards covering these areas are known for being cautious, particularly when it comes to winter weather impacts on rural roads.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, the chances of school bus cancellations are more mixed, ranging between 25% and 50%, depending on the specific region and timing of the transition to rain. Boards that cover more rural or higher elevation areas will be more likely to see issues, while those in the southern sections of the region—where the switchover to rain will happen earlier in the evening—will have a longer window for melting and road improvement overnight.

At this point, the outcome could easily go either way. That’s why confidence remains low when it comes to predicting widespread cancellations despite the messy setup. While conditions are expected to improve quickly overnight, uncertainty lingers, especially for rural zones where icy backroads often remain a hazard well after the main part of the storm has passed.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Another Freezing Rain Risk Threatens School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario on Wednesday

NOTE: SOME SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THE EARLIER ICE STORM - ONLY SCHOOL BOARDS THAT HAVE REGION-WIDE CLOSURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED ON THIS MAP. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD FOR A DETAILED LIST OF SCHOOL CLOSURES

While Central Ontario continues to recover from the devastating ice storm that struck over the weekend, yet another round of freezing rain is expected to impact Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday. In the wake of the storm, widespread damage and ongoing power outages have forced several school boards to extend closures, with more potential disruptions likely as another system moves in.

The Trillium Lakelands District School Board (TLDSB) has confirmed that all schools will remain closed for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, April 2, 2025, due to extensive power outages still affecting the region. This closure comes as crews continue efforts to restore electricity and ensure school facilities are safe to reopen.

The Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board has also announced multiple school closures for both Wednesday and Thursday. In the District of Muskoka, Monsignor Michael O’Leary, St. Dominic, and Saint Mary will remain closed. In Orillia, the following schools are affected: St. Bernards, Monsignor Lee, Notre Dame, Patrick Fogarty, and Foley.

Meanwhile, the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (KPR) is planning to reopen schools on Wednesday, but some locations will remain closed due to localized outages. A complete list of affected schools is available on the board’s website: KPR School Closure Update.

Similarly, the Simcoe County District School Board (SCDSB) has announced that some schools will stay closed on Wednesday. Additionally, schools in Orillia will remain closed on Thursday as recovery continues. A full list of school closures can be found here: SCDSB Alert.

On top of these closures, there's growing concern over potential school bus cancellations across parts of Southern Ontario as Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing rain warnings in advance of this next wave. Rural school boards northwest of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)—including Bluewater, Upper Grand, and Simcoe County—are facing the highest risk of bus disruptions. Freezing rain is expected to begin in the late morning and could significantly impact afternoon bus runs.

These regions currently face an estimated 75% chance of an “ice day” on Wednesday. However, the timing of the storm means school boards will need to make proactive decisions, as the worst conditions may arrive after morning transportation has already taken place.

In Eastern Ontario, freezing rain is also in the forecast, though it’s expected to begin later in the day. With the storm arriving after the afternoon commute, most buses will likely run as scheduled on Wednesday. That said, the risk of cancellations rises for Thursday morning as freezing rain is expected to continue overnight and could make for slick travel conditions at the start of the day.

For those in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, freezing rain is expected to be minimal. With temperatures hovering above freezing, most of this region will avoid major impacts, and school buses are expected to operate as usual.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Ice Storm Aftermath to Keep Many Schools Closed in Central Ontario for a Second Day on Tuesday

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As Central Ontario recovers from the weekend’s devastating ice storm, some school boards in the hardest-hit regions have decided to keep schools closed for a second day on Tuesday due to ongoing power outages and hazardous conditions.

As of 7 PM, the following English public and catholic school boards have announced closures:

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board – All schools closed.

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board – Schools closed in Peterborough County, Peterborough City, Northumberland County, and Quinte West.

• Peterborough, Victoria, Northumberland and Clarington Catholic School Board – All schools in Peterborough, Peterborough County, and the City of Kawartha Lakes will remain closed. Schools in Northumberland will be open, except for St. Mary Catholic Elementary School in Campbellford, which is closed due to a power outage. Transportation to Northumberland schools will be cancelled. All schools in Clarington will be open, with transportation operating as usual.

• Durham District School Board - The following schools will be closed and no transportation will be provided: Beaver River PS, McCaskills Mills PS, Brock HS, Goodwood PS, Scott Central PS, SA Cawker PS

• Simcoe County District School Board - Schools in the central and north zones will remain closed to students. Clearview Meadows ES and Stayner Collegiate Institute will also remain closed.

• Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board - Schools are closed in the North Zone (Elmvale, Midland, Penetanguishene & Orillia), Central Zone (Barrie, Innisfil & Angus), along with St. Dominic, Monsignor Michael O'Leary and Saint Mary's in Huntsville and St. Noel Chabanel in Wasaga Beach.

This article will be updated should any additional school closures be announced.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Schools Across Parts of Central Ontario Will Be Closed on Monday Due to Major Ice Storm Damage

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A major ice storm has left much of Central Ontario paralyzed, with widespread power outages and extensive damage. While the freezing rain threat has ended for the hardest-hit regions, the impact is far from over. Many communities remain without power, and recovery efforts are only just beginning. With power restoration expected to take days in some areas, school closures on Monday are inevitable.

As of 6:30 PM on Sunday, multiple school boards have already announced they will be closed on Monday due to the ongoing impacts of the storm. This includes Simcoe County District School Board, Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board. These regions, among the hardest hit, are highlighted in dark purple on the map.

We are also highly confident that additional school closures will be announced in other severely impacted areas, including Tri-Board, North Durham, and Near North. Given the sheer number of power outages, downed trees, and icy roads, it’s difficult to imagine how schools in these regions could safely operate.

Dufferin and Meaford were also hit hard by the storm, and while some cancellations or closures are possible, the impacts there were not as widespread. As a result, the school board may opt to close select schools rather than issuing a full regional closure.

Meanwhile, in the Ottawa Valley, the impacts of this storm have been less severe. However, freezing rain is ongoing this evening and will continue into the overnight hours before transitioning to rain. Road conditions could still be hazardous, especially on rural routes. Because of this, there is a strong chance of school bus cancellations for the Renfrew and Upper Canada school boards.

As for the City of Ottawa, it’s a 50/50 call at this point. The urban school board generally has a higher tolerance for winter conditions since most students do not rely on rural bus routes. That said, with lingering ice and freezing rain, cancellations remain a possibility.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Late Season School Bus Cancellations Possible on Monday Due to Heavy Snow

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/3/24/bus-cancellations

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With the school year nearing the end of peak weather-related bus cancellation season, students in parts of Southern Ontario may still have a chance to squeeze in one more snow day before spring fully takes over.

A messy weather system is set to sweep across Southern Ontario overnight Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for accumulating snow and hazardous travel conditions during the Monday morning commute. Areas around Georgian Bay could see up to 20 cm of snowfall, which may be enough to trigger widespread school bus cancellations in some regions.

Environment Canada has issued winter travel advisories for parts of Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound, and North Bay, making these locations the most likely to experience disruptions on Monday morning.

For students in the Near North District School Board, which covers Parry Sound and North Bay, the likelihood of a snow day is quite high, sitting at 75%. With these areas expected to receive the heaviest snowfall, and considering that this school board has a history of being cautious with winter weather, there's a strong possibility that school buses will be canceled on Monday.

The Bruce Peninsula, Northern Muskoka, and North Hastings (Tri-Board) face a more uncertain forecast, with the chances of a snow day sitting at 50/50. These areas are expected to see less snowfall overall. However, factors like blowing snow and reduced visibility during the morning hours could still result in cancellations, especially in rural and exposed areas.

For the rest of Grey-Bruce, along with South Muskoka and northern sections of Tri-Board, the chance of school bus cancellations is slight but not impossible. Snowfall amounts will likely be lower, but conditions could still lead to localized travel disruptions, particularly on untreated roads.

The probability of a snow day drops significantly for the rest of Southern Ontario, including Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall in these areas is not expected to be heavy enough to warrant widespread bus cancellations. However, there remains a small chance (5-25%) of isolated cancellations, particularly in rural areas where road conditions can deteriorate more quickly.

While this storm won’t bring a province-wide snow day, those in the hardest-hit regions should keep an eye on overnight conditions and school board announcements early Monday morning.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Flash Freeze Risk Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Thursday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/3/6/bus-cancellations

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After Southern Ontario got a brief taste of spring-like weather with mild temperatures and heavy rain on Wednesday, a drastic shift is about to take hold as temperatures plummet below freezing.

This sharp drop will likely lead to the development of icy roads, especially in areas where surfaces are still wet from rain and snowmelt over the past 24 hours. Blowing snow could also become a concern around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, with lake-effect snow returning to those regions on Thursday.

While we don’t typically issue bus cancellation forecasts based on local road conditions, the situation is widespread enough to warrant a forecast, especially with Environment Canada alerts mentioning hazardous travel conditions.

The Trillium Lakelands District School Board (TLDSB) has already announced full school closures for Thursday, and it wouldn’t be surprising if other nearby school boards follow suit—at least in terms of school bus cancellations.

The school boards and bus consortiums most likely to cancel buses on Thursday include Bluewater, Near North, and Tri-Board, as they tend to be the most proactive when it comes to poor road conditions.

For the rest of the rural school boards across Central and Eastern Ontario, it’s a toss-up and will depend on local road conditions. Some areas in the orange zone could see cancellations, while others might run as usual. This uncertainty is exactly why we typically don’t issue forecasts for cancellations due to icy roads.

Urban school boards in the GTA and Ottawa are unlikely to be affected, as road conditions are generally much better in these areas.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Alberta Clipper May Give Some Students in Ontario a Long Weekend on Friday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/28/bus-cancellations

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A strong Alberta Clipper is set to sweep across Southern Ontario beginning late Friday morning, bringing widespread snowfall that will continue throughout the day. The heaviest impacts are expected in Central and Eastern Ontario, where snowfall totals of 10 to 20 cm are forecasted.

Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings and weather advisories for many regions, signaling the potential for hazardous travel conditions. Based on these alerts, it is likely that some school boards will choose to cancel buses due to the expected dangerous afternoon commute.

However, confidence in widespread cancellations is slightly lower due to the timing of the snow, which will begin later in the morning rather than overnight. This means school boards will need to be proactive, making decisions early Friday morning based on the latest weather alerts and forecast updates.

The most proactive school boards, including Near North and Tri-Board (North Hastings), are the most likely to cancel buses, with a strong (75%) chance of cancellations on Friday. Other school boards across Central and Eastern Ontario have a lower but still notable chance, ranging from slight to 50/50, depending on the school board history and the level of Environment Canada alerts in effect.

Meanwhile, Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are expected to receive less snow, with accumulations falling below the typical threshold for school bus cancellations. While roads may still be slick during the evening commute, widespread cancellations in these areas are unlikely.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (All Regions)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka, Haliburton & North CKL)

• Tri-Board (Central Hastings & North L&A)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Rest of Regions)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West & Central Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Tri-Board (North & Central Frontenac)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Rest of Regions)

• Upper Canada District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• STWDSTS (Dufferin & Wellington)

• Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Northumberland)

• Tri-Board (Rest of Regions)

• Ottawa-Carleton District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Another Day of Likely Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Wednesday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/19/bus-cancellations

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Snow squalls have continued to dump heavy snow across parts of the snowbelt region, particularly east of Lake Huron and along the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay, throughout the day on Tuesday. These intense bursts of snowfall have created near-whiteout conditions at times, making travel extremely difficult and forcing numerous road closures.

While squalls are expected to weaken overnight, road conditions will likely remain hazardous in the hardest-hit areas. Plows have struggled to keep up, with snow accumulating faster than it can be cleared. Many roads remain impassable, and even as crews work through the night, some routes may not be fully cleared by morning.

As a result, there’s a strong likelihood of another round of school bus cancellations on Wednesday, particularly in areas where rural backroads are still buried. The highest chances for a snow day include all of Grey-Bruce and northern Huron County, where widespread road closures have been reported.

Simcoe County may also see some bus cancellations, especially in communities closer to Georgian Bay, where snowfall has been heaviest and conditions remain the most difficult.

Outside of these core snowbelt regions, there’s a possibility of bus cancellations in Dufferin and Wellington counties, as well as northern Durham (around Beaverton) and parts of Kawartha Lakes. However, the likelihood in these areas is less certain and will depend on how quickly road crews can clear the snow overnight.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)

• STWDSTS (Wellington)

• Simcoe County District School Board (South & North Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)

• Waterloo Region District School Board

• Peel District School Board (North)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely in Southern Ontario's Snowbelt on Tuesday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/18/bus-cancellations

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Intense snow squalls have been pounding the snowbelt region, including Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County, throughout the day. Heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous whiteout conditions, making travel nearly impossible in some areas.

As a result, plows have been pulled off the roads, and numerous road closures have been reported across Grey-Bruce due to the lack of visibility and the sheer volume of snow accumulating too quickly to clear.

With these intense squalls expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to operate safely in the hardest-hit areas. A snow day is looking like a near certainty for students across Grey-Bruce and parts of Simcoe County, including the City of Barrie, where snowfall rates remain extreme and drifts continue to build.

Beyond the snowbelt, blowing snow could still cause problems across parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario, extending into portions of the GTA. This may increase the likelihood of school bus cancellations in some areas, though the chances are lower the farther you get from the core snowbelt region.

Many school boards covering urban areas tend to have a higher threshold for cancellations, meaning decisions will likely depend on road conditions early Tuesday morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West & Central Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Simcoe County District School Board (South & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Dufferin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)

• STWDSTS (Wellington)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Waterloo Region District School Board

• STWDSTS (Guelph)

• Peel District School Board (North)

• York Region District School Board

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Bus Cancellations Possible on Friday in Southwestern & Central Ontario

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/14/bus-cancellations

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Snow squalls are expected to intensify late Thursday and continue into Friday, bringing hazardous winter conditions to areas near Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. These squalls will be capable of producing whiteout conditions with near-zero visibility, making travel extremely dangerous. In addition, snowfall accumulation could be rapid, leading to difficult and potentially impassable road conditions.

Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for several regions, highlighting the potential for snowfall totals between 20 and 40 cm by Friday afternoon. Given the expected intensity of these squalls, morning road conditions could be treacherous. As a result, school bus cancellations are highly likely in the hardest-hit areas.

The Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County are at the highest risk for bus cancellations, as these areas are expected to experience the most persistent and intense snowfall overnight. Surrounding regions will also need to keep a close eye on conditions, as the likelihood of cancellations will depend on how strong the squalls become and whether significant snowfall accumulates before the morning commute.

Please note: We are aware that some school boards have a PA day on Friday. If your school board is affected, you can disregard this forecast. However, we continue to provide these updates regardless of PA days, as not all school boards follow the same schedule.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound & Meaford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)

• STWDSTS (Wellington)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread Bus Cancellations & School Closures Likely on Thursday as Winter Storm Bears Down on Southern Ontario

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article:

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A significant winter storm is set to impact Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the night, and continuing into Thursday morning.

Environment Canada has issued widespread winter storm warnings, snowfall warnings, and freezing rain warnings across the region, signalling the potential for hazardous conditions.

With snowfall totals expected to range between 20 and 40 cm by Thursday morning across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario, road conditions will likely be extremely treacherous.

Snowfall rates could exceed 5 cm per hour at times, making it difficult for snowplows to keep up. Even though the most intense conditions will occur Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, the aftermath will still pose significant challenges for travel.

Given the severity of this storm, there is a very high likelihood that school buses will be cancelled across most of Southern Ontario. In fact, the probability of widespread bus cancellations across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario is over 90%.

School closures are also a strong possibility, particularly with Environment Canada's warnings emphasizing the dangers of travel on Thursday morning. Some school boards may even choose to announce cancellations proactively tonight. We will update this article if any school boards confirm closures in advance.

In the Golden Horseshoe and Niagara region, school boards tend to be more cautious when it comes to bus cancellations and school closures, as urban areas typically have better snow-clearing operations. However, there is also a chance of mixed precipitation in these regions, which could lower snowfall totals to around 10-20 cm.

This uncertainty makes cancellations less of a guarantee compared to other parts of the province. As a result, we’ve placed the likelihood of school bus cancellations at around 75% for Halton (South), Peel (South), York, Durham (South), and KPR (Clarington).

Meanwhile, for Toronto, Hamilton, and Niagara, it’s a 50/50 call and could go either way depending on how the storm unfolds overnight.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, and London, also has a slightly lower probability of bus cancellations, sitting at around 75%. The system is expected to taper off earlier in these regions, and some areas could transition to rain by morning.

If that happens, conditions might improve enough for buses to operate. However, given the ongoing warnings from Environment Canada, school boards in these areas may still err on the side of caution and cancel transportation regardless.

Stay tuned for updates as the storm progresses, and check back for confirmation from school boards on closures and cancellations tonight and Thursday morning.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Extra Extra Long Weekend for Some Students in Southern Ontario With Bus Cancellations Possible on Monday

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The lake effect machine is set to roar back to life late Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of intense snow squalls to the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the strength and exact positioning of the heaviest squalls, conditions look severe enough to force school bus cancellations on Monday in the hardest-hit areas. After buses were already cancelled last Thursday and Friday, this could mark a third straight missed school day for some students.

Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall watches and warnings stretching from Muskoka through Simcoe County and into Grey-Bruce. Some of these alerts warn of 20 to 50 cm of snowfall by the end of Monday, with blowing snow reducing visibility and making for treacherous driving conditions. With weather this severe, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to safely operate in these regions.

The highest probability of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula, where heavy squalls are virtually guaranteed. In Simcoe County, the likelihood of cancellations remains high, but it all depends on exactly where the squalls develop. Some areas could get buried in snow, while others may see far less accumulation, leading to possible discrepancies in cancellations across different school zones.

For Muskoka and the Kawartha Lakes, snow squall watches are in effect, but the most intense snowfall is expected to stay south and west. While these areas won’t be the primary targets of this lake effect activity, there’s still a chance of bus cancellations depending on how conditions unfold overnight.

Outside of the snowbelt regions, the rest of Southern Ontario should remain unaffected by lake-effect snow on Monday. No school bus cancellations are expected in areas beyond the direct impact zone.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Meaford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Kincardine & Hanover)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, South CKL & Haliburton)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• STWDSTS (Dufferin)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Snow Squalls on Friday May Give a Long Weekend to Some Students in Southern Ontario

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Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay tonight and continue into Friday, bringing periods of heavy snowfall and reduced visibility. Some areas could see up to 25 cm of accumulation by the time the squalls wind down.

With widespread snow squall watches and warnings in effect for Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, and Muskoka, there is a strong possibility that school boards in these regions will cancel buses on Friday morning. Hazardous road conditions, combined with a forecast that calls for ongoing snowfall throughout the day, will likely influence their decision.

The highest likelihood of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County, where the worst conditions are expected right around the time when school boards must make their morning call. Roads in these areas may be heavily snow-covered, and blowing snow could further reduce visibility, making travel unsafe for school buses.

For surrounding areas, including Barrie, Owen Sound, and southern Muskoka, the chance of bus cancellations remains uncertain. While snow squalls may impact these regions, conditions may not be severe enough for widespread cancellations. However, with a snow squall watch or warning in place, some school boards may choose to err on the side of caution.

In Eastern Ontario, snowfall accumulations will be minor compared to the snowbelt, with up to 5 cm expected overnight. However, strong wind gusts could create localized blowing snow, reducing visibility in some areas. Rural school boards, particularly Tri-Board, which has a history of being overly cautious during winter weather events, could opt to cancel buses if road crews struggle to clear snow in time for the morning commute.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely. Snow squall activity will remain highly localized to the traditional snowbelt regions, leaving most other areas unaffected by significant snowfall or travel disruptions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Southampton)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)

• STWDSTS (Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Wellington)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, Haliburton & South CKL)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Tri-Board (Central Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

• Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)

• Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Freezing Rain Likely to Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southwestern Ontario on Thursday

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A messy mix of wintry weather is set to move into Southern Ontario early Thursday morning, bringing a mix of snow and freezing rain depending on location. The exact impacts will vary widely across the region, with mainly light snow expected in Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas further south, particularly in Southwestern Ontario, face a higher risk of prolonged freezing rain.

Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Rain Warning for Windsor and Chatham, indicating hazardous travel conditions in these areas. With freezing rain expected to be falling right during the morning bus run, there is a strong likelihood of school bus cancellations in these regions.

The probability of cancellations decreases significantly as you move further north, where freezing rain is less of a concern. Instead, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, but accumulation may not be enough to meet the threshold for widespread bus cancellations.

That said, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. As a result, we’ve assigned a very low chance of school bus cancellations across Central and Eastern Ontario. There remains a small possibility that a few isolated school boards may decide to cancel buses, particularly if Environment Canada issues a Winter Weather Travel Advisory or other alert overnight.

One key factor is that most of the snowfall accumulation will occur after school bus decisions are made early in the morning. This makes proactive cancellations less likely, especially since projected snowfall totals are expected to remain in the 5 to 10 cm range. Unless conditions deteriorate more than currently forecast, school boards will likely proceed as usual.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Greater Essex County District School Board

• Lambton Kent District School Board (Chatham)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Lambton Kent District School Board (Sarnia & Lambton)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Elgin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (City of London & Oxford)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)

• Grand Erie District School Board

• District School Board of Niagara (South)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Waterloo Region District School Board

• Peel District School Board (North)

• Halton District School Board (North)

• District School Board of Niagara (North)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Alberta Clipper Likely to Cause Widespread School Bus Cancellations Across Southern Ontario on Wednesday

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Heavy snow is currently sweeping across Southern Ontario as an Alberta Clipper makes its way through the region. By Wednesday morning, this system is expected to deliver widespread snowfall totals of up to 15 cm across Eastern, Central, and Southwestern Ontario.

In addition to the snowfall from the system itself, lake effect snow will develop in the wake of the clipper, primarily around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

These squalls are expected to begin during the late morning and continue into Wednesday afternoon. Environment Canada has issued snow squall watches for these regions, which are likely to be upgraded to warnings by early Wednesday.

With heavy snow persisting overnight and the added impact of lake effect snow during the day, it is highly likely that school boards in affected areas will cancel school buses on Wednesday.

Most of the snow from the Alberta Clipper will fall Tuesday evening and taper off overnight for areas outside the snowbelt. However, rural regions may still struggle to clear backroads in time for the morning commute. This was evident on Tuesday when widespread cancellations occurred despite the snow ending hours before the morning bus runs.

Conditions on Wednesday are expected to be similar or even worse in some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where snow will still be falling during the early morning hours.

The greatest likelihood of a "snow day" will be in rural school boards in Eastern Ontario, which are typically more cautious when it comes to heavy snow. Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties are also strong candidates for cancellations, as these areas are still digging out from previous snowfalls and are expected to see additional squalls on Wednesday.

For the rest of Central and Eastern Ontario, school bus cancellations remain uncertain. Decisions will largely depend on local road conditions and how efficiently crews can clear roads, especially critical backroads.

Urban areas like Ottawa and the Greater Toronto Area are not expected to experience enough snow to trigger bus cancellations. However, Ottawa has a slightly higher chance than Toronto due to ongoing snowfall during the early morning hours, which may make the roads more difficult to clear.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Southampton)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter, Stratford & Listowel)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Owen Sound, Meaford & Hanover)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

• Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska)

• Upper Canada District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & CKL)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Northumberland)

• Tri-Board (Belleville, Prince Edward County, South L&A & Kingston)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Renfrew & Pembroke)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)

• Waterloo Region District School Board

• Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)

• Ottawa-Carleton District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (London & Elgin)

• Halton District School Board (North)

• Peel District School Board (North)

• York Region District School Board

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Near North District School Board (North Bay)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Will Grey-Bruce Ever Go Back to School? Another Day of Bus Cancellations Possible on Tuesday

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Heavy snow is set to sweep across Southern Ontario on Monday evening, bringing blizzard conditions and widespread blowing snow. The combination of reduced visibility and drifting snow will make travel hazardous in many areas.

Fortunately, in most regions, the snowfall is expected to taper off well before Tuesday morning. Winds will also weaken significantly overnight, leading to improved conditions by the time the morning bus run begins. Because of this, we do not anticipate widespread school bus cancellations across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.

However, the arrival of much colder air overnight will trigger lake-effect snow bands east of Lake Huron and south of Georgian Bay. Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings and watches for these areas, warning of poor travel conditions that could persist into Tuesday morning.

As a result, school bus cancellations are likely in regions such as Grey, Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties, where snowfall and blowing snow could create treacherous driving conditions. For students in Grey-Bruce, this could mark their seventh consecutive snow day, following cancellations last week and on Monday.

The heaviest snowfall from this system is expected in the Parry Sound and North Bay regions, where totals of up to 20 cm are possible. Given the school board's cautious approach to winter weather, there is a slight chance of cancellations in these areas, even if conditions improve significantly by the morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Meaford)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)

• Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Hanover, Owen Sound & Bruce Peninsula)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka, Haliburton & North CKL)

• Rainbow District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Looming Blizzard Risk Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Monday

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A mix of strong wind gusts and heavy snowfall is expected to create blizzard conditions starting Monday afternoon across parts of Southern Ontario.

Environment Canada has issued a blizzard warning for areas along the Eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, with a weather advisory extending through Muskoka and into Northern Ontario. These alerts signal the potential for hazardous weather, with significant impacts on visibility and travel conditions.

Given the seriousness of the situation, it is likely that school boards in the most affected regions will cancel school buses on Monday. However, for much of Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, widespread bus cancellations appear less likely. This is because the worst of the weather is expected to develop after the afternoon bus run, reducing the chances of a "snow day" for most students in these areas.

In regions where Environment Canada has issued blizzard warnings or advisories, conditions could deteriorate quickly during the afternoon hours. Central Ontario, including Muskoka, is expected to experience snow starting as early as 2 PM. In these areas, proactive decisions by school boards will be crucial to ensure safety, especially for students returning home in worsening weather.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, where the snow and strong winds are not expected to intensify until later in the day, the afternoon bus run should proceed without issue.

Ultimately, whether buses are cancelled will depend on how each school board interprets the forecast and balances the safety of students with the logistical realities of the storm’s timing. The further southeast you are located, the lower the chance of bus cancellations on Monday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)

• Rainbow District School Board

• Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine, Southampton, Owen Sound, Hanover & Meaford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

• Tri-Board (North Hastings)

• Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska, Pembroke & Petawawa)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)

• STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central & South Zone)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Likely Bus Cancellations on Friday Could Give Some Students an Entire Week of Snow Days in Southwestern Ontario

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Isolated snow squall activity is set to return along parts of the eastern Lake Huron shoreline, persisting until Friday. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall warning, highlighting the potential for significant snowfall accumulation of 15 to 30 cm by Friday morning.

This weather event could lead to yet another round of school bus cancellations for students in parts of Huron, Grey, and Bruce counties. If buses are cancelled, Friday would mark the fifth consecutive snow day for some students in these regions—a full week of snow days. Parents, we feel for you!

Meanwhile, lake-effect snow activity off other Great Lakes, including Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie, has eased significantly. As a result, there’s little to no potential for snow day impacts in areas away from Lake Huron.

The snow squall activity will remain highly localized, primarily affecting communities directly along the Lake Huron shoreline. The likelihood of school bus cancellations drops considerably for areas further inland, where the snow squalls are expected to have minimal impact.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

• Bluewater District School Board (Hanover)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Stratford)

• Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Heavy Lake Effect Snow May Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Thursday

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Pockets of heavy lake-effect snow accompanied by localized snow squalls are expected to develop tonight across areas near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, and Lake Ontario.

These conditions are likely to result in notable snowfall accumulations ranging from 10 to 20 cm, as well as near-zero visibility throughout much of Thursday morning and afternoon.

Environment Canada has issued a range of advisories, watches, and warnings across these regions, reflecting the potentially hazardous conditions. With this in mind, school boards in some of the hardest-hit areas may choose to cancel school buses on Thursday morning.

The highest likelihood of cancellations is in the Sudbury, Manitoulin Island, and Bruce Peninsula regions, where snow squall warnings are currently in effect. These areas are expected to experience the most intense snowfall and the worst visibility.

Elsewhere, locally heavy lake-effect snow could develop along the Lake Huron shoreline. Environment Canada has issued a weather advisory for this region, highlighting the possibility of impactful snow.

Meanwhile, a snow squall watch has been issued for parts of the northern Lake Ontario shoreline, including areas from Oshawa to Colborne.

The impact of lake-effect snow in these advisory and watch zones remains uncertain, and conditions could vary significantly depending on the development and positioning of the squalls.

Given this uncertainty, we're assigning a 50% chance of school bus cancellations in these areas, as the decision could easily go either way.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Rainbow District School Board

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Southampton)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington and Northumberland)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel and Exeter)

• Bluewater District School Board (Hanover and Owen Sound)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound and North Bay)

• Durham District School Board (Oshawa)

• Algoma District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Stratford)

• Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

• Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka and South CKL)

• Durham District School Board (North)

• Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

• Tri-Board (Belleville and Prince Edward County)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Third Day of School Bus Cancellations Possible in Parts of Central Ontario on Wednesday

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While the regions impacted by snow squalls have narrowed compared to earlier in the week, these squalls are still expected to bring significant effects to parts of the Bruce Peninsula and the Parry Sound region.

Heavy snow combined with near-zero visibility and bitterly cold temperatures will likely keep school buses off the roads in some areas on Wednesday. For certain school boards, this would mark the third day of bus cancellations this week—a testament to how persistent and disruptive these squalls have been.

Meanwhile, much of Southwestern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, is bracing for what could be the coldest night of the year. Environment Canada has issued widespread Extreme Cold Warnings, forecasting wind chills between -30°C and -35°C by Wednesday morning.

While these wind chills are dangerously cold, they are unlikely to reach the threshold for a ‘cold day’ in most school boards, which typically only cancel buses when wind chills dip below -40°C.

However, there remains a low chance of cancellations, especially if temperatures end up colder than predicted. Given this, we've assigned a widespread 5-10% chance of cancellations in areas under the Extreme Cold Warning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)

• Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

• Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

• Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)

• Rainbow District School Board

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

• Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

• Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

• Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton & North CKL)

• Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)

• Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

• District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

• Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)

• Near North District School Board (North Bay)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.