'Snow Day' Forecast: Snow Squalls on Friday May Give a Long Weekend to Some Students in Southern Ontario

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Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay tonight and continue into Friday, bringing periods of heavy snowfall and reduced visibility. Some areas could see up to 25 cm of accumulation by the time the squalls wind down.

With widespread snow squall watches and warnings in effect for Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, and Muskoka, there is a strong possibility that school boards in these regions will cancel buses on Friday morning. Hazardous road conditions, combined with a forecast that calls for ongoing snowfall throughout the day, will likely influence their decision.

The highest likelihood of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County, where the worst conditions are expected right around the time when school boards must make their morning call. Roads in these areas may be heavily snow-covered, and blowing snow could further reduce visibility, making travel unsafe for school buses.

For surrounding areas, including Barrie, Owen Sound, and southern Muskoka, the chance of bus cancellations remains uncertain. While snow squalls may impact these regions, conditions may not be severe enough for widespread cancellations. However, with a snow squall watch or warning in place, some school boards may choose to err on the side of caution.

In Eastern Ontario, snowfall accumulations will be minor compared to the snowbelt, with up to 5 cm expected overnight. However, strong wind gusts could create localized blowing snow, reducing visibility in some areas. Rural school boards, particularly Tri-Board, which has a history of being overly cautious during winter weather events, could opt to cancel buses if road crews struggle to clear snow in time for the morning commute.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely. Snow squall activity will remain highly localized to the traditional snowbelt regions, leaving most other areas unaffected by significant snowfall or travel disruptions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Southampton)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington)

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, Haliburton & South CKL)

  • Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

  • Tri-Board (Central Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

  • Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)

  • Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Freezing Rain Likely to Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southwestern Ontario on Thursday

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A messy mix of wintry weather is set to move into Southern Ontario early Thursday morning, bringing a mix of snow and freezing rain depending on location. The exact impacts will vary widely across the region, with mainly light snow expected in Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas further south, particularly in Southwestern Ontario, face a higher risk of prolonged freezing rain.

Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Rain Warning for Windsor and Chatham, indicating hazardous travel conditions in these areas. With freezing rain expected to be falling right during the morning bus run, there is a strong likelihood of school bus cancellations in these regions.

The probability of cancellations decreases significantly as you move further north, where freezing rain is less of a concern. Instead, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, but accumulation may not be enough to meet the threshold for widespread bus cancellations.

That said, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. As a result, we’ve assigned a very low chance of school bus cancellations across Central and Eastern Ontario. There remains a small possibility that a few isolated school boards may decide to cancel buses, particularly if Environment Canada issues a Winter Weather Travel Advisory or other alert overnight.

One key factor is that most of the snowfall accumulation will occur after school bus decisions are made early in the morning. This makes proactive cancellations less likely, especially since projected snowfall totals are expected to remain in the 5 to 10 cm range. Unless conditions deteriorate more than currently forecast, school boards will likely proceed as usual.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Greater Essex County District School Board

  • Lambton Kent District School Board (Chatham)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Lambton Kent District School Board (Sarnia & Lambton)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Elgin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (City of London & Oxford)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)

  • Grand Erie District School Board

  • District School Board of Niagara (South)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

  • Waterloo Region District School Board

  • Peel District School Board (North)

  • Halton District School Board (North)

  • District School Board of Niagara (North)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Alberta Clipper Likely to Cause Widespread School Bus Cancellations Across Southern Ontario on Wednesday

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Heavy snow is currently sweeping across Southern Ontario as an Alberta Clipper makes its way through the region. By Wednesday morning, this system is expected to deliver widespread snowfall totals of up to 15 cm across Eastern, Central, and Southwestern Ontario.

In addition to the snowfall from the system itself, lake effect snow will develop in the wake of the clipper, primarily around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

These squalls are expected to begin during the late morning and continue into Wednesday afternoon. Environment Canada has issued snow squall watches for these regions, which are likely to be upgraded to warnings by early Wednesday.

With heavy snow persisting overnight and the added impact of lake effect snow during the day, it is highly likely that school boards in affected areas will cancel school buses on Wednesday.

Most of the snow from the Alberta Clipper will fall Tuesday evening and taper off overnight for areas outside the snowbelt. However, rural regions may still struggle to clear backroads in time for the morning commute. This was evident on Tuesday when widespread cancellations occurred despite the snow ending hours before the morning bus runs.

Conditions on Wednesday are expected to be similar or even worse in some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where snow will still be falling during the early morning hours.

The greatest likelihood of a "snow day" will be in rural school boards in Eastern Ontario, which are typically more cautious when it comes to heavy snow. Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties are also strong candidates for cancellations, as these areas are still digging out from previous snowfalls and are expected to see additional squalls on Wednesday.

For the rest of Central and Eastern Ontario, school bus cancellations remain uncertain. Decisions will largely depend on local road conditions and how efficiently crews can clear roads, especially critical backroads.

Urban areas like Ottawa and the Greater Toronto Area are not expected to experience enough snow to trigger bus cancellations. However, Ottawa has a slightly higher chance than Toronto due to ongoing snowfall during the early morning hours, which may make the roads more difficult to clear.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Southampton)

  • Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter, Stratford & Listowel)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Owen Sound, Meaford & Hanover)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

  • Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

  • Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska)

  • Upper Canada District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & CKL)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Northumberland)

  • Tri-Board (Belleville, Prince Edward County, South L&A & Kingston)

  • Renfrew County District School Board (Renfrew & Pembroke)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)

  • Waterloo Region District School Board

  • Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)

  • Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)

  • Ottawa-Carleton District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (London & Elgin)

  • Halton District School Board (North)

  • Peel District School Board (North)

  • York Region District School Board

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Near North District School Board (North Bay)

  • Rainbow District School Board

  • Algoma District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Will Grey-Bruce Ever Go Back to School? Another Day of Bus Cancellations Possible on Tuesday

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Heavy snow is set to sweep across Southern Ontario on Monday evening, bringing blizzard conditions and widespread blowing snow. The combination of reduced visibility and drifting snow will make travel hazardous in many areas.

Fortunately, in most regions, the snowfall is expected to taper off well before Tuesday morning. Winds will also weaken significantly overnight, leading to improved conditions by the time the morning bus run begins. Because of this, we do not anticipate widespread school bus cancellations across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.

However, the arrival of much colder air overnight will trigger lake-effect snow bands east of Lake Huron and south of Georgian Bay. Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings and watches for these areas, warning of poor travel conditions that could persist into Tuesday morning.

As a result, school bus cancellations are likely in regions such as Grey, Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties, where snowfall and blowing snow could create treacherous driving conditions. For students in Grey-Bruce, this could mark their seventh consecutive snow day, following cancellations last week and on Monday.

The heaviest snowfall from this system is expected in the Parry Sound and North Bay regions, where totals of up to 20 cm are possible. Given the school board's cautious approach to winter weather, there is a slight chance of cancellations in these areas, even if conditions improve significantly by the morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Meaford)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Hanover, Owen Sound & Bruce Peninsula)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka, Haliburton & North CKL)

  • Rainbow District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Looming Blizzard Risk Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Monday

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A mix of strong wind gusts and heavy snowfall is expected to create blizzard conditions starting Monday afternoon across parts of Southern Ontario.

Environment Canada has issued a blizzard warning for areas along the Eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, with a weather advisory extending through Muskoka and into Northern Ontario. These alerts signal the potential for hazardous weather, with significant impacts on visibility and travel conditions.

Given the seriousness of the situation, it is likely that school boards in the most affected regions will cancel school buses on Monday. However, for much of Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, widespread bus cancellations appear less likely. This is because the worst of the weather is expected to develop after the afternoon bus run, reducing the chances of a "snow day" for most students in these areas.

In regions where Environment Canada has issued blizzard warnings or advisories, conditions could deteriorate quickly during the afternoon hours. Central Ontario, including Muskoka, is expected to experience snow starting as early as 2 PM. In these areas, proactive decisions by school boards will be crucial to ensure safety, especially for students returning home in worsening weather.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, where the snow and strong winds are not expected to intensify until later in the day, the afternoon bus run should proceed without issue.

Ultimately, whether buses are cancelled will depend on how each school board interprets the forecast and balances the safety of students with the logistical realities of the storm’s timing. The further southeast you are located, the lower the chance of bus cancellations on Monday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)

  • Rainbow District School Board

  • Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine, Southampton, Owen Sound, Hanover & Meaford)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

  • Tri-Board (North Hastings)

  • Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska, Pembroke & Petawawa)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central & South Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

  • Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Likely Bus Cancellations on Friday Could Give Some Students an Entire Week of Snow Days in Southwestern Ontario

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Isolated snow squall activity is set to return along parts of the eastern Lake Huron shoreline, persisting until Friday. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall warning, highlighting the potential for significant snowfall accumulation of 15 to 30 cm by Friday morning.

This weather event could lead to yet another round of school bus cancellations for students in parts of Huron, Grey, and Bruce counties. If buses are cancelled, Friday would mark the fifth consecutive snow day for some students in these regions—a full week of snow days. Parents, we feel for you!

Meanwhile, lake-effect snow activity off other Great Lakes, including Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie, has eased significantly. As a result, there’s little to no potential for snow day impacts in areas away from Lake Huron.

The snow squall activity will remain highly localized, primarily affecting communities directly along the Lake Huron shoreline. The likelihood of school bus cancellations drops considerably for areas further inland, where the snow squalls are expected to have minimal impact.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Hanover)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Stratford)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Heavy Lake Effect Snow May Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Thursday

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Pockets of heavy lake-effect snow accompanied by localized snow squalls are expected to develop tonight across areas near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, and Lake Ontario.

These conditions are likely to result in notable snowfall accumulations ranging from 10 to 20 cm, as well as near-zero visibility throughout much of Thursday morning and afternoon.

Environment Canada has issued a range of advisories, watches, and warnings across these regions, reflecting the potentially hazardous conditions. With this in mind, school boards in some of the hardest-hit areas may choose to cancel school buses on Thursday morning.

The highest likelihood of cancellations is in the Sudbury, Manitoulin Island, and Bruce Peninsula regions, where snow squall warnings are currently in effect. These areas are expected to experience the most intense snowfall and the worst visibility.

Elsewhere, locally heavy lake-effect snow could develop along the Lake Huron shoreline. Environment Canada has issued a weather advisory for this region, highlighting the possibility of impactful snow.

Meanwhile, a snow squall watch has been issued for parts of the northern Lake Ontario shoreline, including areas from Oshawa to Colborne.

The impact of lake-effect snow in these advisory and watch zones remains uncertain, and conditions could vary significantly depending on the development and positioning of the squalls.

Given this uncertainty, we're assigning a 50% chance of school bus cancellations in these areas, as the decision could easily go either way.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Rainbow District School Board

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Southampton)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington and Northumberland)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel and Exeter)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Hanover and Owen Sound)

  • Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound and North Bay)

  • Durham District School Board (Oshawa)

  • Algoma District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Stratford)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka and South CKL)

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

  • Tri-Board (Belleville and Prince Edward County)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Third Day of School Bus Cancellations Possible in Parts of Central Ontario on Wednesday

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While the regions impacted by snow squalls have narrowed compared to earlier in the week, these squalls are still expected to bring significant effects to parts of the Bruce Peninsula and the Parry Sound region.

Heavy snow combined with near-zero visibility and bitterly cold temperatures will likely keep school buses off the roads in some areas on Wednesday. For certain school boards, this would mark the third day of bus cancellations this week—a testament to how persistent and disruptive these squalls have been.

Meanwhile, much of Southwestern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, is bracing for what could be the coldest night of the year. Environment Canada has issued widespread Extreme Cold Warnings, forecasting wind chills between -30°C and -35°C by Wednesday morning.

While these wind chills are dangerously cold, they are unlikely to reach the threshold for a ‘cold day’ in most school boards, which typically only cancel buses when wind chills dip below -40°C.

However, there remains a low chance of cancellations, especially if temperatures end up colder than predicted. Given this, we've assigned a widespread 5-10% chance of cancellations in areas under the Extreme Cold Warning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

  • Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)

  • Rainbow District School Board

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton & North CKL)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North & West Zone)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

  • Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)

  • Near North District School Board (North Bay)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: School Bus Cancellations All but Certain for Muskoka, Parry Sound & Grey-Bruce on Tuesday

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Localized snow squall activity is forecasted to intensify late Monday and persist through Tuesday, bringing hazardous conditions to the Bruce Peninsula and parts of Muskoka.

These squalls will result in rapid snowfall accumulation, with localized totals potentially nearing 100 cm in the hardest-hit areas. Near-zero visibility caused by heavy snowfall and blowing snow will make travel extremely dangerous and, in many cases, nearly impossible.

Given these conditions, school bus cancellations are almost guaranteed in the regions most severely impacted. The combination of intense snow squalls and dangerously cold temperatures makes it highly unlikely that busing can be safely provided in these areas on Tuesday.

Snow squall activity may also extend to parts of the far southern Niagara region and Prince Edward County. While both areas could experience impacts, Prince Edward County is more likely to see a snow day due to the local school board’s being more sensitive to heavy snow.

The Niagara region has a lower chance of widespread cancellations, with the Fort Erie area being the most likely to see disruptions if squalls push far enough north.

Outside of the snow squall regions, the extreme cold on Monday morning did not lead to widespread cancellations, and similar temperatures are expected on Tuesday. As a result, it is unlikely that the cold alone will justify bus cancellations across most areas.

The exception may be the North Bay region, where buses were cancelled on Monday due to extreme cold and may face the same outcome again on Tuesday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Hanover)

  • Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound and North Bay)

  • Tri-Board (Prince Edward County)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL North)

  • Tri-Board (Belleville and South L&A)

  • Rainbow District School Board

  • Algoma District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel, Stratford and Exeter)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

  • Tri-Board (Kingston)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Threat of Extreme Cold and Snow Squalls Will Likely Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Monday

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A dangerous combination of strong snow squalls and bitterly cold temperatures is expected to impact areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting this evening and continuing into Monday.

Environment Canada has already issued snow squall warnings for regions along the Lake Huron shoreline, highlighting the potential for significant snowfall accumulations. Some areas could see totals ranging from 30 to 60 cm by the end of the event.

This combination of heavy snow and extreme cold will create hazardous driving conditions, making travel dangerous and potentially life-threatening. With these factors in play, it’s highly likely that school buses will be cancelled across many parts of Southern Ontario on Monday.

Even areas not expecting snow squall activity could face cancellations due to the cold alone. Environment Canada has warned of wind chills in the -30s tonight and into Monday morning, which could be enough to keep buses off the roads.

That said, it’s not guaranteed. Many school boards have specific thresholds for cancellations, typically requiring air temperatures of -30°C or wind chills of -40°C or colder to call off transportation.

Monday morning’s conditions may fall just short of these criteria, particularly in Central and Eastern Ontario. Given the current data, we estimate about a 50/50 chance of school bus cancellations in those regions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)

  • Near North District School Board (North Bay)

  • Rainbow District School Board

  • Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & Haliburton)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound & East Parry Sound)

  • Tri-Board (North Hastings)

  • Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Waterloo Region District School Board

  • District School Board of Niagara (North Region)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL North)

  • Tri-Board (Central Hastings & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (City of London)

  • District School Board of Niagara (South Region)

  • STWDSTS (Guelph)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL South)

  • Tri-Board (Belleville, Central L&A & South Frontenac)

  • Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Questionable Chance for School Bus Cancellations on Wednesday in Parts of Southern Ontario

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Snow squalls have persisted throughout Tuesday across regions near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, delivering relentless snowfall. The Muskoka region, in particular, has been buried under more than 50 cm of snow between Monday night and Tuesday morning.

While the intensity of these squalls has diminished slightly, a shift in wind direction has caused them to drift southward into Simcoe, Huron, and Perth counties. Despite the weakening, the squalls are expected to linger overnight, continuing to impact travel and local conditions.

There remains some uncertainty regarding overnight snowfall amounts. Current projections indicate totals of 5-10 cm in most areas, with isolated pockets potentially seeing 10-20 cm.

However, Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for these regions, highlighting the potential for up to 30 cm of additional snow by Wednesday afternoon. If these higher totals materialize, they could prompt another round of school bus cancellations in the affected areas.

Meanwhile, the Muskoka region is still digging out from the massive snowfall earlier today. Although no additional accumulation is expected overnight, the sheer volume of snow already on the ground could lead to local school bus cancellations on Wednesday.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Bluewater (Kincardine)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central & South Zone)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Hanover & Southampton)

  • Avon Maitland (Listowel & Exeter)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Trillium Lakelands (North Muskoka)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

  • Bluewater (Owen Sound & Meaford)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

  • Avon Maitland (Stratford)

  • Thames Valley (Middlesex)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Bus Cancellations Likely in Parts of Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Tuesday

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Intense snow squalls have developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as of Monday afternoon and are forecasted to persist into Tuesday.

These squalls are expected to bring significant snowfall, with accumulations of up to 50 cm in some areas, particularly across Muskoka, Parry Sound, and the Grey-Bruce regions.

The worst conditions are likely overnight into Tuesday morning, characterized by near-zero visibility and hazardous travel conditions.

Given the severity of the forecast, it is highly likely that school boards in the hardest-hit areas of Central and Southwestern Ontario will cancel school bus services on Tuesday.

Environment Canada has issued a snow squall warning, highlighting that “rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations.”

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

  • Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

  • Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula & Southampton)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands (North Muskoka)

  • Bluewater (Kincardine, Owen Sound & Meaford)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands (Haliburton)

  • Near North (East Parry Sound)

  • Bluewater (Hanover)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Trillium Lakelands (North City of Kawartha Lakes)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

  • Avon Maitland (Listowel)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

  • Avon Maitland (Exeter)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Tuesday is less than 10%. These snow squalls are highly localized and will primarily impact the typical snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Snow Squalls May Cancel School Buses in Parts of Central and Southwestern Ontario on Wednesday

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Snow squalls have formed along the southeastern shoreline of Lake Huron and the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay, creating challenging conditions across these regions. These squalls are expected to persist throughout Wednesday, bringing significant snowfall accumulation and reducing visibility, making travel potentially hazardous.

 

Given the ongoing conditions, there is a strong likelihood of school bus cancellations in areas most heavily impacted by the snow squalls. The highest chances are in Middlesex County, southern Huron County, Meaford, and the "West" zone of Simcoe County, where we estimate a 75% likelihood of cancellations.

 

For regions including the rest of Huron County, southern Perth County, and the City of London, the chance of school bus cancellations drops to around 50%. Meanwhile, areas such as Dufferin County and the "Central" and "South" zones of Simcoe County have a lower likelihood, with an estimated 25% chance of cancellations.

 

Outside of these areas, the rest of southern Ontario is unlikely to experience significant disruptions. The lake effect snow will remain highly localized, sparing most of the region from any substantial impact.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Slight Chance of School Bus Cancellations in the GTA on Friday

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A system is forecast to arrive in Southwestern Ontario late Thursday, bringing light to moderate snowfall to the region overnight and into Friday morning. Along with this system, a lake-effect snow band is expected to form early Friday morning, affecting parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) west of Lake Ontario.

While the overall snowfall accumulation will not be particularly significant—most areas will see 2-5 cm, with localized amounts of up to 15 cm in the lake-effect snow zone—the potential for reduced visibility is a concern. This will be especially true for the stretch between Toronto and Burlington during the Friday morning rush hour. As a result, there is a possibility of school bus cancellations, though it remains uncertain.

The highest likelihood of cancellations is in the southern parts of Peel and Halton regions, where the most intense snow squall activity is expected. However, the probability is estimated at only 50%, as urban school boards in these areas typically require more substantial impacts to cancel buses. The decision will hinge on the strength of the snow band and whether it causes significant road issues when cancellation decisions are made in the early morning.

In surrounding areas, including Toronto and northern Halton, there is a slight chance (about 25%) of cancellations. While unlikely, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out if conditions worsen unexpectedly.

Elsewhere in Southwestern Ontario, the probability of cancellations is very low to low. The system's expected snowfall alone is insufficient to prompt widespread cancellations. However, some localized areas may experience reduced visibility during the morning commute, which could lead to isolated decisions by individual school boards to cancel buses as a precaution.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, no school bus cancellations are anticipated, as these regions are not expected to see significant snowfall from this system.

As Friday marks the last school day before the holiday break, this will be our final snow day forecast for 2024. Thank you for relying on us for your snow day probability updates throughout the year. Our forecasts will resume the week of January 6th. Have a safe and happy holiday season!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Extra Long Weekend for Some Students in Ontario as Squall Likely to Cancel Buses on Friday

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Intense snow squall activity is forecasted to bring a significant amount of snow to parts of the snowbelt region east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay overnight and into Friday morning.

These squalls are expected to persist through the morning hours, creating hazardous conditions with near-zero visibility on the roads. Given these dangerous travel conditions, it is highly likely that many school boards will opt to cancel buses for Friday. For some areas, this would mark the second snow day in a row, as buses were already canceled on Thursday.

The highest confidence for school bus cancellations remains in areas like Grey-Bruce, Avon Maitland (Goderich), Simcoe (North), Trillium (Muskoka), and Near North (Parry Sound). With active snow squall warnings in place and the potential for over 50 cm of snow to accumulate overnight, there’s little doubt that buses will be unable to operate safely in these regions. We’re assigning a 90% probability of cancellations in these zones.

Outside the core snowbelt areas, the situation becomes less certain. For locations such as Listowel, Simcoe (West), and Trillium (Haliburton), we estimate a 75% chance of cancellations. While they are fairly likely, it’s not a guarantee. Regions including the rest of the Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB), Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe (Central), Trillium (Kawartha), and East Parry Sound have a 50% chance of seeing cancellations, as snowfall in these areas is expected to be less intense or more variable.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations on Friday are unlikely since the snow squall activity will remain localized to the snowbelt. This means a sharp drop-off in probabilities as you move farther away from the areas most heavily affected.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Blizzard Conditions on Thursday Likely to Cancel Many School Buses in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt

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Snow squalls are forecast to develop late Wednesday and persist into Thursday, bringing substantial snowfall to areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Strong wind gusts are expected to accompany the intense snowfall, prompting Environment Canada to issue a rare blizzard warning for parts of Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties. Meanwhile, other regions are under a strongly worded snow squall warning, with predictions of snowfall accumulation potentially reaching up to 80 cm in localized areas.

Given the expected hazardous conditions, it’s highly unlikely that school buses will be able to operate safely in the affected areas on Thursday. As a result, it is anticipated that many school boards will opt to cancel school buses and might even decide to close schools entirely, particularly in regions under a blizzard warning.

The highest likelihood of a ‘snow day’ applies to the entire Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB), Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB) - North Huron, Simcoe County District School Board (North and West weather zones), Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka region), and Near North District School Board (NNDSB - Parry Sound area).

These areas, which are under snow squall or blizzard warnings, have a greater than 90% chance of bus cancellations.

Surrounding regions, including the remainder of Avon Maitland District School Board (southern zones), Simcoe County District School Board (Central and South weather zones), Student Transportation Services of Wellington Dufferin (STWDSTS), and Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton regions), have a 50–75% chance of snow day cancellations.

Although these areas are still under warnings, they are not expected to experience the most severe conditions. While bus cancellations are still likely, the confidence level isn’t as high as in the core impact zones.

The probability of cancellations drops significantly outside the snowbelt, as the squalls are expected to remain highly localized. Eastern Ontario may be the only exception outside the snowbelt which has a low chance (10–25%) of cancellations.

While icy road conditions from an overnight freeze following earlier rainfall are possible, it is unlikely to be severe enough to prompt widespread cancellations. However, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely on Tuesday in Central and Eastern Ontario

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Following Monday's freezing rain that brought icy conditions across Central and Eastern Ontario, the risk of freezing drizzle persists through the overnight hours.

Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing drizzle advisories, warning that the slick conditions could extend into early Tuesday morning. With temperatures remaining near or just below the freezing mark overnight, untreated surfaces are expected to stay icy well into the morning.

As a result, it’s likely that many school boards, particularly in rural areas, will opt to cancel school bus services on Tuesday morning due to the hazardous road conditions.

The highest confidence for cancellations is in rural Eastern Ontario, where freezing drizzle is expected to still be occurring at the time decisions are made. These areas have been given a 90% chance of an “ice day.”

In the City of Ottawa, the likelihood is slightly lower at 75%, as the school board tends to be more conservative with cancellations in urban settings. However, the overnight icing should still be significant enough to prompt cancellations.

In Central Ontario, the Parry Sound and North Bay region has the highest probability of cancellations at 90%. The school board in this area is typically more weather-sensitive, and the lingering freezing drizzle almost guarantees that buses will be cancelled.

The situation becomes more uncertain for Muskoka, Haliburton, and Kawartha Lakes. Here, the freezing drizzle is expected to taper off shortly after midnight, but icy road conditions are likely to persist into the morning, with temperatures remaining near freezing.

After Monday’s decision to proceed with buses in some areas backfired for Trillium Lakelands—forcing adjustments to afternoon routes—the school board is likely to exercise more caution on Tuesday to avoid similar issues.

South and west of these regions, the chances of cancellations decrease significantly. Freezing drizzle is expected to end earlier in the evening, and temperatures are forecast to rise overnight, mitigating icy conditions. While cancellations cannot be entirely ruled out—particularly in Simcoe County—most other areas are unlikely to see disruptions to bus services on Tuesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Freezing Rain Threatens to Cancel School Buses on Monday in Parts of Southern Ontario

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Freezing rain is forecast to impact parts of Central and Eastern Ontario starting Monday morning and continuing throughout the day.

With Environment Canada issuing freezing rain warnings that highlight potential road hazards on Monday, it is highly likely that many school boards in the affected regions will choose to cancel bus services as a precaution.

The highest likelihood of an “ice day” is focused on areas northwest of the GTA, particularly in higher elevations, as well as regions around Lake Simcoe and into Eastern Ontario north of the Lake Ontario shoreline.

For school boards in these areas, there is a 75% to 90% chance of bus cancellations. While confidence in cancellations is high, there remains a small possibility that some boards might take a gamble due to the later expected start of the freezing rain. This uncertainty has kept the chances from being universally set at 90%.

The only area where we feel a solid 90% confidence level is the southern portion of the Tri-Board district. Historically, this region has been very proactive in response to any Environment Canada winter weather warnings, so the presence of a freezing rain warning is likely enough to prompt cancellations there.

Further north, including Muskoka, Haliburton, and the Ottawa Valley, messy weather may not arrive until later in the day. As of now, Environment Canada has not issued freezing rain warnings for these areas, which lowers the likelihood of bus cancellations.

Probabilities range from 25% to 50%, with just a 10% chance in the City of Ottawa. Urban cancellations in Ottawa typically require more severe conditions, so the lower chance is consistent with their past responses.

In contrast, Southwestern Ontario and the GTA are expected to see mainly rain with minimal freezing rain, making school bus cancellations in these regions highly unlikely.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Will London Area Students Ever Go to School? Likely Not Until Next Week!

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Intense snow squalls have developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on Thursday, delivering significant snowfall to areas southeast of the lakes. This activity is expected to persist through the overnight hours, gradually weakening early Friday morning. However, snowfall totals in the hardest-hit regions are likely to exceed 50 cm by the time the squalls subside.

Given the expected heavy accumulation overnight, it is highly likely that some school boards in the affected regions will decide to keep buses off the roads for yet another day.

The highest probability of cancellations will again be concentrated along the southeastern shoreline of Lake Huron. This includes the southern portion of the Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB) and the Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB), which covers the City of London.

There is a 90% likelihood of bus cancellations in these areas, as the combination of the existing snowpack and additional overnight snowfall will almost certainly create treacherous travel conditions for the morning commute.

The remainder of the Lake Huron shoreline, including the northern section of the AMDSB, the entire Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB), and the “West” weather zone for the Simcoe County school board, has a 50–75% chance of cancellations.

For school boards east of Georgian Bay, including the NNDSB (Parry Sound), Trillium Lakelands (Muskoka), and the “North” weather zone for Simcoe County, we have assigned a 50–75% chance of cancellations. Confidence here is slightly lower because the snow squalls in these areas are expected to intensify later in the day.

As mentioned in Environment Canada's snow squall watch, conditions will likely worsen in the afternoon, requiring school boards to make proactive decisions in the morning. This is particularly true for Parry Sound, where the school board has a history of erring on the side of caution when adverse weather is expected.

Outside the snowbelt regions, the likelihood of a snow day is almost non-existent, as the heavy snow will remain highly localized to areas directly impacted by the squalls.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Yet Another Chance of School Bus Cancellations on Thursday in Southwestern Ontario

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Snow continues to linger across Southern Ontario as of Wednesday evening, but it is expected to taper off as the system exits the province overnight. However, snow squalls are forecast to develop along the southeastern shorelines of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, potentially creating hazardous travel conditions.

Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall warnings, which could prompt some school boards to keep buses off the roads for yet another day.

The highest probability of school bus cancellations is along the entire eastern shoreline of Lake Huron, including all regions within the Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB) and the Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB). This area is almost certain to experience a “snow day” on Thursday, with poor travel conditions making it difficult to see how buses could safely operate.

The Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB), covering Middlesex, London, Oxford, and Elgin, also has a strong chance of cancellations, with probabilities ranging from 75% to 90%. The same applies to the Lambton zone of the Lambton Kent District School Board (LKDSB).

Around Georgian Bay, there is a 75% chance of cancellations for the “West” weather zone of Simcoe County, where snow squall activity is expected to be most intense. The “Central” and “North” weather zones have a 50% chance, as it is less certain whether conditions will be severe enough to lead to cancellations.

To the east of Georgian Bay, the snow is expected to taper off overnight, offering a bit of a reprieve. However, the Parry Sound region still has a 50% chance of cancellations due to the potential for blowing snow, which could create hazardous conditions. This school board also tends to be particularly cautious when it comes to weather-related disruptions.

For the Muskoka region, there is a slight chance of cancellations. If schools do reopen, Thursday would mark the first day back for much of Southern Muskoka since last Thursday.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, widespread cancellations are not anticipated. However, we have assigned a broad very low to low chance of cancellations across Eastern and Central Ontario, just in case blowing snow results in some unexpected disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.