'Snow Day' Forecast: Another Day of Likely Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Wednesday

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Snow squalls have continued to dump heavy snow across parts of the snowbelt region, particularly east of Lake Huron and along the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay, throughout the day on Tuesday. These intense bursts of snowfall have created near-whiteout conditions at times, making travel extremely difficult and forcing numerous road closures.

While squalls are expected to weaken overnight, road conditions will likely remain hazardous in the hardest-hit areas. Plows have struggled to keep up, with snow accumulating faster than it can be cleared. Many roads remain impassable, and even as crews work through the night, some routes may not be fully cleared by morning.

As a result, there’s a strong likelihood of another round of school bus cancellations on Wednesday, particularly in areas where rural backroads are still buried. The highest chances for a snow day include all of Grey-Bruce and northern Huron County, where widespread road closures have been reported.

Simcoe County may also see some bus cancellations, especially in communities closer to Georgian Bay, where snowfall has been heaviest and conditions remain the most difficult.

Outside of these core snowbelt regions, there’s a possibility of bus cancellations in Dufferin and Wellington counties, as well as northern Durham (around Beaverton) and parts of Kawartha Lakes. However, the likelihood in these areas is less certain and will depend on how quickly road crews can clear the snow overnight.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (South & North Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)

  • Waterloo Region District School Board

  • Peel District School Board (North)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.