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A strong Alberta Clipper is set to sweep across Southern Ontario beginning late Friday morning, bringing widespread snowfall that will continue throughout the day. The heaviest impacts are expected in Central and Eastern Ontario, where snowfall totals of 10 to 20 cm are forecasted.

Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings and weather advisories for many regions, signaling the potential for hazardous travel conditions. Based on these alerts, it is likely that some school boards will choose to cancel buses due to the expected dangerous afternoon commute.

However, confidence in widespread cancellations is slightly lower due to the timing of the snow, which will begin later in the morning rather than overnight. This means school boards will need to be proactive, making decisions early Friday morning based on the latest weather alerts and forecast updates.

The most proactive school boards, including Near North and Tri-Board (North Hastings), are the most likely to cancel buses, with a strong (75%) chance of cancellations on Friday. Other school boards across Central and Eastern Ontario have a lower but still notable chance, ranging from slight to 50/50, depending on the school board history and the level of Environment Canada alerts in effect.

Meanwhile, Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are expected to receive less snow, with accumulations falling below the typical threshold for school bus cancellations. While roads may still be slick during the evening commute, widespread cancellations in these areas are unlikely.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Near North District School Board (All Regions)
Tri-Board (North Hastings)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka, Haliburton & North CKL)
Tri-Board (Central Hastings & North L&A)
Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska)
Rainbow District School Board
Algoma District School Board

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Rest of Regions)
Simcoe County District School Board (West & Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Tri-Board (North & Central Frontenac)
Renfrew County District School Board (Rest of Regions)
Upper Canada District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

STWDSTS (Dufferin & Wellington)
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Durham District School Board (North)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Northumberland)
Tri-Board (Rest of Regions)
Ottawa-Carleton District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.