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Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay tonight and continue into Friday, bringing periods of heavy snowfall and reduced visibility. Some areas could see up to 25 cm of accumulation by the time the squalls wind down.

With widespread snow squall watches and warnings in effect for Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, and Muskoka, there is a strong possibility that school boards in these regions will cancel buses on Friday morning. Hazardous road conditions, combined with a forecast that calls for ongoing snowfall throughout the day, will likely influence their decision.

The highest likelihood of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County, where the worst conditions are expected right around the time when school boards must make their morning call. Roads in these areas may be heavily snow-covered, and blowing snow could further reduce visibility, making travel unsafe for school buses.

For surrounding areas, including Barrie, Owen Sound, and southern Muskoka, the chance of bus cancellations remains uncertain. While snow squalls may impact these regions, conditions may not be severe enough for widespread cancellations. However, with a snow squall watch or warning in place, some school boards may choose to err on the side of caution.

In Eastern Ontario, snowfall accumulations will be minor compared to the snowbelt, with up to 5 cm expected overnight. However, strong wind gusts could create localized blowing snow, reducing visibility in some areas. Rural school boards, particularly Tri-Board, which has a history of being overly cautious during winter weather events, could opt to cancel buses if road crews struggle to clear snow in time for the morning commute.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely. Snow squall activity will remain highly localized to the traditional snowbelt regions, leaving most other areas unaffected by significant snowfall or travel disruptions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Southampton)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)
Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Durham District School Board (North)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, Haliburton & South CKL)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Tri-Board (Central Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)
Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)
Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.