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While no precipitation is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, there is still a slight chance of school bus cancellations tied to extreme cold in some parts of the region.

The coldest conditions are expected to be found across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, where overnight lows combined with wind chills could make it feel near -40°C. Actual air temperatures in these areas may dip into the -25 to -30°C range by Monday morning. This places temperatures very close to the threshold that typically prompts cold-related bus cancellations.

That said, confidence is not particularly high. Some forecast guidance keeps temperatures just warm enough to stay below that cancellation threshold, while other models suggest a slightly colder outcome. With cold events like this, even a difference of a couple of degrees can make a big difference when it comes to school board decisions.

Because of this uncertainty, we have assigned a 25 percent chance of cold-related bus cancellations to Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board. If any cold day cancellations are announced on Monday, they are most likely to occur within this group of school boards.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. We have extended a low to very low chance into parts of rural Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. While temperatures here are not expected to reach cold-day thresholds, it cannot be completely ruled out if overnight lows end up a few degrees colder than forecast, particularly in more exposed rural areas.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Monday. Conditions elsewhere should remain cold but manageable, staying below the level that would typically lead to widespread cold-related disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.