Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Tuesday, January 25, 2022

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IMPORTANT: This forecast covers ADDITIONAL snowfall for Tuesday (starting 12am) - this doesn’t cover any snow on Monday.

Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and localized intense squalls are expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday for areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. The focus of this snow will be on the eastern Lake Huron shoreline from Saugeen Shores to Goderich. There is some disagreement between the models on the exact placement of this band which will determine who gets hit the hardest. We do believe the band will shift around somewhat and should limit the overall accumulation in a particular location. However, if it does lock in for several hours then the potential is there for upwards of 30cm of snow by the end of Tuesday somewhere in that ‘Up to 30cm’ zone on our map.

We will also see some lake effect snow off the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay which will affect the Collingwood and Barrie area mainly during the morning hours. It appears to be quite weak and not as organized as the Lake Huron squall and it will weaken before noon. As such, the most we expect in this area is 15cm of snow mainly closer to the Georgian Bay shoreline. The actual city of Barrie should be closer to the 5-10cm range depending on how far inland the snow can get. The snow squalls off Lake Huron should weaken late Tuesday evening but could linger into the overnight and early Wednesday morning.

Please note as we say with every lake effect event, squalls are one of the hardest weather events to forecast due to how localized and intense they can be. This means one location could get 50cm while just down the road there is barely a flake to be seen. The best we can do is show which regions are most likely to see up to a certain amount based on the duration and intensity of the squall. It just depends on where this band sets up that determines who sees those significant amounts. Most locations within each zone shouldn’t come anywhere near the stated maximum which is the intended goal. We’d rather show you the potential so that you’re prepared for the worst.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Monday, January 24, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper combined with lake effect snow northeast of Georgian Bay will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to Southern Ontario on Monday. Thankfully, it won’t be anywhere near as strong as last Monday’s major snowstorm. The snow is expected to start early Monday morning off Georgian Bay as lake effect snow and localized squalls develop off Lake Huron, stretching across the Bruce Penisula and into regions just to the north of Parry Sound into North Bay. These squalls could be quite intense at times and have the potential to bring rapid snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility mainly during the morning and afternoon on Monday.

Later in the morning, widespread light to moderate snowfall associated with an Alberta Clipper will move in from Michigan. This will affect Southwestern Ontario first and slowly spread eastwards throughout the afternoon. This clipper will be fairly moisture starved so it will be very dependent on lake enhancement to deliver more than a few centimetres of snow further to the east. As such, there will be less of an impact on Eastern Ontario away from the lakes. Snowfall will come to an end by the late evening, but some lingering lake effect snow could continue into early Tuesday off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron

The heaviest totals will be found in the Bruce Penisula and regions northeast of Georgian Bay which could see 12-20cm (locally 25cm) of snow combined from the squalls and system. Much of Southwestern Ontario where the system will have more moisture to work with can expect general accumulation between 6-12cm. There’s also a zone north of Lake Ontario including Newmarket and Peterborough that could see locally close to 10cm thanks to lake enhancement off the northern shores of Lake Ontario.

The rest of Southern Ontario aside from the Ottawa Valley will pick up around 2-4cm of fresh snow with a few locations pushing close to 5-6cm depending on the exact strength of the system. As we mentioned, regions around the Quebec border in Eastern Ontario including Ottawa will likely pick up less than 2cm as the system will be quite disorganized by the time it reaches that area.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Saturday, January 22 - Sunday, January 23, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A weak system is currently sliding across Southern Ontario bringing widespread snowfall to the region on Saturday afternoon. It won’t result in that much accumulation with a few centimetres of fresh snow at most. However, this system will help start the lake effect snow machine throughout the snowbelt region around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay late Saturday.

Scattered lake effect snow is expected to develop just after the dinner hour on Saturday which will give way to a more focused and intense snow squall overnight and into Sunday morning. Current indications suggest that this band will stretch across the Bruce Penisula and come inland off Georgian Bay around Meaford, Wasaga Beach and north of Barrie. This band isn’t expected to stay stationary for very long with maybe 2-4 hours of heavy snow in this area before it shifts southward.

By the late morning, the band will have drifted southward and start to affect the Kincardine and Saugeen Shores region off Lake Huron. A secondary area of lake effect snow may also develop along the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay affecting the Meaford and Collingwood area with additional snowfall. We expect that the lake effect activity will start to fizzle out through the afternoon, but some snow may still hug the shoreline of Lake Huron into the evening.

Between Saturday and Sunday, we’re looking at snowfall totals ranging from 8-16cm for much of Grey-Bruce counties and into Central Simcoe County to the northwest of Barrie. Do note that some locations may get locally up to 20cm within the strongest snow squall, but it will be extremely localized and most areas will be closer to 10cm. The rest of the snowbelt around Georgian Bay including Muskoka and northward into Northeastern Ontario can expect 4-8cm (locally up to 10cm) with most of the snow coming late Saturday and early Sunday.

The actual City of Barrie should escape the bulk of the snow from the lake effect activity although a few brief shots of snow as the bands shift around could deliver up to 5-10cm of snow to the city. Higher amounts are expected in the northern section of the city. We’re looking at less than 4cm for the rest of Southern Ontario mainly this afternoon and evening from the system snow sweeping across the region. More snow is possible on Monday with the threat of additional squalls along with some widespread snow late Monday into Tuesday. More details on that soon!

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Thursday, January 20, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Arctic air has once again flowed into Southern Ontario which has resulted in some lake effect snow developing off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. It appears that a fairly strong but narrow snow squall will set up off the southeastern shoreline of Lake Huron just after midnight tonight. It’s expected to continue into Thursday morning affecting locations to the northwest of London including Lambton Shore, Strathroy and Grand Bend.

There is still some uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will set up which will affect who sees the most snowfall accumulation. Current data indicates there is the potential for a small zone between Lambton Shores and Grand Bend to pick up close to 40cm by the time the lake effect snow tapers off late Thursday. Now, this doesn’t mean all areas within that zone will see anywhere near 40cm as it will be very localized. Lake effect snow will persist throughout that area into the afternoon and evening with the heaviest snow expected from the late morning to early evening on Thursday. It should come to an end by the late evening or predawn Friday.

Despite the current snow squall warning, the City of London should escape most of the lake effect snow activity. They could see a few rounds of heavy snow as the bands shift around, but accumulation should be limited to around 5-10cm. The highest accumulation will be the northwest of the city closer to the Lake Huron shoreline.

We also expect some fairly unorganized lake effect snow to develop off the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay. This could bring localized snowfall accumulation of up to 15cm to locations such as Meaford, Collingwood and Angus. Expect poor driving conditions in the affected regions tomorrow and be sure to drive according to the conditions.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Tuesday, January 18 - Wednesday, January 19, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Heavy snowfall is expected throughout much of the southern portion of Northern Ontario as a clipper slides through the region on Tuesday. Snowfall will start in the west along the Manitoba border early Tuesday morning and continue to expand eastward. The worst conditions are expected during the afternoon and evening with the snow tapering off overnight in the west and late Wednesday morning for Northeastern Ontario. Snowfall totals will generally range between 12-20cm with locally up to 25cm from Kenora through Thunder Bay and into Northeastern Ontario. Totals will decrease further to the north with under 5cm expected north of a line from Pikangikum and Moosonee.

Alberta Clipper Brings More Snow to Parts of Southern Ontario Tonight Into Wednesday With Up to 12-20cm of Snow Possible

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It has been quite the start to the week across Southern Ontario as an intense snowstorm brought blizzard-like conditions and up to 60cm of snow early Monday. The cleanup is still ongoing for those that received the most snow including the GTA and Eastern Ontario. And as the dig out continues, more snow is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday courtesy of an Alberta Clipper sweeping across the northern part of Southern Ontario. Fortunately, the heaviest snow should be predominantly focused on locations that got off lightly from Monday’s major snowstorm. Parts of Northeastern and Central Ontario could be looking at between 10-20cm of snow from this clipper by the time it tapers off late Wednesday.

We’re already seeing the first bands of precipitation move into our region from the west bringing light to moderate snowfall around the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron. This is expected to spread eastward later tonight and linger into Wednesday. The heaviest snow will occur just after the midnight hour during the early morning hours on Wednesday with it becoming less intense later on in the morning. We have a particular focus on regions east of Georgian Bay including Muskoka, Algonquin Park and northwards into Sudbury and North Bay where the heaviest snow will be found. Some lake enhancement could also boost those totals around Georgian Bay.

The snow is expected to move out of Southern Ontario by the late afternoon on Wednesday, but there are indications that lake effect snow may develop off Georgian Bay in the wake of the system. Expect localized snow squall activity for the Parry Sound-Muskoka region during the early evening with the bands drifting southwards into Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County by the late evening. Some minor lake effect snow may linger into Thursday morning southeast of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron although it’s looking fairly unorganized at this point.

Snowfall totals east of Georgian Bay and into Northeastern Ontario from this system along with the lake effect snow that follows it should range from 12-20cm with localized pockets of 25cm. Further east, we’re looking at around 6-12cm for the Ottawa Valley. Those in Grey-Bruce counties and around Lake Simcoe can also expect 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation on Wednesday. However, this is mostly based on the expected lake effect snow later in the day so some areas may receive less than that.

Snowfall totals will decrease as you go further to the south with some rain and freezing drizzle to mix in. The freezing drizzle doesn’t appear to be a widespread issue so we won’t be including a freezing rain map but be aware of some icy road conditions through Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe.

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Tuesday, January 18, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and localized snow squalls have developed off the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay tonight. They are expected to continue into early Tuesday morning bringing locally heavy snowfall to locations such as Kincardine, Goderich and Stratford. The bands are unlikely to get that intense so snowfall totals will mainly range between 5-10cm for most areas east of Lake Huron. Localized accumulation of up to 15cm isn’t out of the question if we see a squall lock in for an extended period of time, but it will be extremely isolated through somewhere in Huron and Perth counties. Regions southeast of Georgian Bay including Collingwood and Wasaga Beach will see lake effect flurries and periodic pulses of heavy snow adding up to at most 5cm. The lake effect snow machines will start to shut off later in the morning on Tuesday as a system approaches our region from the west.