Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Thursday, January 20, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Arctic air has once again flowed into Southern Ontario which has resulted in some lake effect snow developing off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. It appears that a fairly strong but narrow snow squall will set up off the southeastern shoreline of Lake Huron just after midnight tonight. It’s expected to continue into Thursday morning affecting locations to the northwest of London including Lambton Shore, Strathroy and Grand Bend.

There is still some uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will set up which will affect who sees the most snowfall accumulation. Current data indicates there is the potential for a small zone between Lambton Shores and Grand Bend to pick up close to 40cm by the time the lake effect snow tapers off late Thursday. Now, this doesn’t mean all areas within that zone will see anywhere near 40cm as it will be very localized. Lake effect snow will persist throughout that area into the afternoon and evening with the heaviest snow expected from the late morning to early evening on Thursday. It should come to an end by the late evening or predawn Friday.

Despite the current snow squall warning, the City of London should escape most of the lake effect snow activity. They could see a few rounds of heavy snow as the bands shift around, but accumulation should be limited to around 5-10cm. The highest accumulation will be the northwest of the city closer to the Lake Huron shoreline.

We also expect some fairly unorganized lake effect snow to develop off the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay. This could bring localized snowfall accumulation of up to 15cm to locations such as Meaford, Collingwood and Angus. Expect poor driving conditions in the affected regions tomorrow and be sure to drive according to the conditions.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Tuesday, January 18 - Wednesday, January 19, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Heavy snowfall is expected throughout much of the southern portion of Northern Ontario as a clipper slides through the region on Tuesday. Snowfall will start in the west along the Manitoba border early Tuesday morning and continue to expand eastward. The worst conditions are expected during the afternoon and evening with the snow tapering off overnight in the west and late Wednesday morning for Northeastern Ontario. Snowfall totals will generally range between 12-20cm with locally up to 25cm from Kenora through Thunder Bay and into Northeastern Ontario. Totals will decrease further to the north with under 5cm expected north of a line from Pikangikum and Moosonee.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Wednesday, January 19, 2022

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CANCELLATIONS FROM MONDAY’S SNOWSTORM FOR WEDNESDAY (as of 8:30 PM)

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic - KPRDSB and PVNCCDSB have made the decision that: All schools in Clarington will be CLOSED to students & staff tomorrow, Jan 19, and will pivot to remote learning. As such, all transportation to Clarington schools will be cancelled.

Note: This forecast is only for cancellations related to the system coming through tonight into tomorrow. Most school boards that were closed on Tuesday due to the snowstorm cleanup have already confirmed that schools will reopen on Wednesday. It’s unlikely we will see closures on Wednesday related to Monday’s snowstorm outside of what has been announced tonight.

An Alberta Clipper is expected to bring up to 12-20cm of snow for parts of Central and Northeastern Ontario beginning tonight and lasting into Wednesday. This will likely result in some bus cancellations in the hardest-hit regions on Wednesday. The highest probability for a ‘snow day’ is through the North Bay and Parry Sound region where we have a 75% chance of a snow day. This is mostly because that school board, in particular, has a track record of cancelling buses whenever there’s a weather advisory or more in effect from Environment Canada. The weather advisory calling for up to 10-20cm in that area should be sufficient to see bus cancellations there.

Throughout the rural regions of Central Ontario including Muskoka, Bancroft and Renfrew we have a 50% chance as it’s a little more uncertain if conditions will reach the level to result in school bus cancellations. The Ottawa region has a 25% chance as they will still see 6-12cm of snow, but that school board tends to be less sensitive to snow and generally only cancels for 15+cm of snow. It’s not out of the question though especially with the cleanup from the last snowstorm still ongoing. The rest of Southern Ontario has a 10% or lower chance of a snow day as this system will be focused on Central and Eastern Ontario.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.

Alberta Clipper Brings More Snow to Parts of Southern Ontario Tonight Into Wednesday With Up to 12-20cm of Snow Possible

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It has been quite the start to the week across Southern Ontario as an intense snowstorm brought blizzard-like conditions and up to 60cm of snow early Monday. The cleanup is still ongoing for those that received the most snow including the GTA and Eastern Ontario. And as the dig out continues, more snow is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday courtesy of an Alberta Clipper sweeping across the northern part of Southern Ontario. Fortunately, the heaviest snow should be predominantly focused on locations that got off lightly from Monday’s major snowstorm. Parts of Northeastern and Central Ontario could be looking at between 10-20cm of snow from this clipper by the time it tapers off late Wednesday.

We’re already seeing the first bands of precipitation move into our region from the west bringing light to moderate snowfall around the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron. This is expected to spread eastward later tonight and linger into Wednesday. The heaviest snow will occur just after the midnight hour during the early morning hours on Wednesday with it becoming less intense later on in the morning. We have a particular focus on regions east of Georgian Bay including Muskoka, Algonquin Park and northwards into Sudbury and North Bay where the heaviest snow will be found. Some lake enhancement could also boost those totals around Georgian Bay.

The snow is expected to move out of Southern Ontario by the late afternoon on Wednesday, but there are indications that lake effect snow may develop off Georgian Bay in the wake of the system. Expect localized snow squall activity for the Parry Sound-Muskoka region during the early evening with the bands drifting southwards into Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County by the late evening. Some minor lake effect snow may linger into Thursday morning southeast of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron although it’s looking fairly unorganized at this point.

Snowfall totals east of Georgian Bay and into Northeastern Ontario from this system along with the lake effect snow that follows it should range from 12-20cm with localized pockets of 25cm. Further east, we’re looking at around 6-12cm for the Ottawa Valley. Those in Grey-Bruce counties and around Lake Simcoe can also expect 6-12cm of snowfall accumulation on Wednesday. However, this is mostly based on the expected lake effect snow later in the day so some areas may receive less than that.

Snowfall totals will decrease as you go further to the south with some rain and freezing drizzle to mix in. The freezing drizzle doesn’t appear to be a widespread issue so we won’t be including a freezing rain map but be aware of some icy road conditions through Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe.

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Tuesday, January 18, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and localized snow squalls have developed off the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay tonight. They are expected to continue into early Tuesday morning bringing locally heavy snowfall to locations such as Kincardine, Goderich and Stratford. The bands are unlikely to get that intense so snowfall totals will mainly range between 5-10cm for most areas east of Lake Huron. Localized accumulation of up to 15cm isn’t out of the question if we see a squall lock in for an extended period of time, but it will be extremely isolated through somewhere in Huron and Perth counties. Regions southeast of Georgian Bay including Collingwood and Wasaga Beach will see lake effect flurries and periodic pulses of heavy snow adding up to at most 5cm. The lake effect snow machines will start to shut off later in the morning on Tuesday as a system approaches our region from the west.

Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Monday, January 17, 2022

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CANCELLATIONS ALREADY ANNOUNCED (as of 9:00 PM)

  • Ottawa-Carleton District: With a major snowstorm headed to the Ottawa area, the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board is shifting to remote learning for all students, including students in specialized education program classes, on Monday, January 17, 2022 (LINK).

  • Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: Due to the anticipated poor weather conditions tomorrow, Jan. 17, all school transportation will be cancelled. Schools will be OPEN to staff and students. Students can participate in asynchronous learning activities from home. There will be no online synchronous learning (LINK).

After a longer than expected break from our snow day forecasts for the holidays due to schools going online for a few weeks, children across Southern Ontario are set to return to schools in person on Monday. However, it appears that return to school won’t happen until Tuesday for most parts of the region thanks to a snowstorm that is expected to bring one of the biggest dumpings of snow that we’ve seen in years. Based on the track of this system and the distribution of the heaviest snowfall, the highest probability for snow bus cancellations and even school closures will be in the eastern part of our region.

This storm is expected to be so impactful with rapid snowfall accumulation and blizzard-like conditions that we’ve decided to add a new category to our legend. The new ‘Stay Home’ category is basically where we expected conditions to be so dangerous out on the roads that it would be very very hard to see how buses can safely operate. And as a result, the chances of a snow day is 99.99% in this area which includes much of Eastern Ontario and the Niagara region. Travel in this area will be nearly impossible so school closures are also fairly likely (although some school boards have a policy where bus cancellations will automatically close schools).

The probability of a snow day (or virtual school day for some) will rapidly decrease as you head further to the west in our region where less snow is expected. The GTA including Hamilton and Central Ontario (Kawartha Lakes, Haliburton) has a very high probability (90%) of seeing a snow day on Monday, but it’s not as certain as those in Eastern Ontario and the Niagara region. The K/W, Barrie and Muskoka corridor has a fairly strong chance (75%) especially if Environment Canada upgrades the current advisory to a snowfall warning which will likely be needed based on the expected accumulation.

Southwestern Ontario including London and the Lake Huron shoreline is unlikely to see any bus cancellations as accumulation isn’t expected to be significant enough however it’s not zero. Deep Southwestern Ontario such as Windsor and Sarnia is very very unlikely to see bus cancellations as there will be barely any accumulation there.

If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.