Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Thursday, January 27, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A weak system is expected to sweep across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Thursday bringing the threat of widespread snowfall. Snow will start during the morning for those further north and it should spread to the southeast throughout the day. However, this system won’t have much moisture associated with it so the general snowfall totals should be kept to a few centimetres across Southern Ontario.

With strong southwesterly winds, lake enhancement will help boost the potential accumulation for those to the northeast of Georgian Bay along with Lake Ontario and Huron. Totals here will range from 2-6cm including Peterborough, Kingston, Grey-Bruce and the Muskoka region with locally up to 10cm.

There are indications that a more organized and intense squall will set up across the Bruce Penisula and into the Parry Sound/North Bay area during the afternoon on Thursday. This squall will have the potential to deliver up to 15cm of snowfall accumulation in localized pockets. We’ve deiced to put this area in the 6-12cm zone instead of the 12-20cm zone because most locations won’t see the 15+cm totals. Pay extra attention to the ‘locally 12 -16cm’ on the legend as some areas will likely see that.

Most of the snow should taper off just after midnight, but some lake effect snow may linger into Friday morning in the typical snowbelt region. We don’t expect much in terms of snowfall accumulation on Friday morning.

Southern Ontario: Extreme Cold Forecast for Wednesday, January 26, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Southern Ontario is set to experience yet another blast of cold air on Wednesday morning which will result in extremely cold temperatures ranging from -20°C to below -30°C. This will likely be close to if not the coldest night/morning of the year so far with the wind chill making it feel near -40°C in the more northern part of the region and near -30°C around the Golden Horseshoe and into Southwestern Ontario.

As we usually see, the temperature will start to drop later tonight and bottom-out early Wednesday morning with the coldest temperatures expected just before sunrise. Around 6-8 am is when the coldest temperatures will occur which ranges from around -25°C to -32°C in Central/Eastern Ontario. Once we factor in the wind chill, it will feel like -30°C to -40°C in Central/Eastern Ontario. The temperature will be slightly milder around the Lake Ontario, Huron and Erie shoreline expected to reach around -16°C to -24°C. And the wind chill will make it feel close to -22°C to 32°C. Later in the day, we will see temperatures climb to -15°C to -20°C in Central/Eastern Ontario and -8°C to -15°C further south around the GTA and Southwestern Ontario.

Please be sure to dress accordingly if you plan on being outside for an extended period of time. Frostbite and other cold-related dangers can become life-threatening in a matter of minutes with temperatures this cold! And please don’t forget about your furry friends. If it’s too cold for you, it’s too cold for them! Bring them inside or find a way to keep them warm. Stay safe and warm!

Southern Ontario: Snow Squall Outlook for Tuesday, January 25, 2022

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IMPORTANT: This forecast covers ADDITIONAL snowfall for Tuesday (starting 12am) - this doesn’t cover any snow on Monday.

Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and localized intense squalls are expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday for areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. The focus of this snow will be on the eastern Lake Huron shoreline from Saugeen Shores to Goderich. There is some disagreement between the models on the exact placement of this band which will determine who gets hit the hardest. We do believe the band will shift around somewhat and should limit the overall accumulation in a particular location. However, if it does lock in for several hours then the potential is there for upwards of 30cm of snow by the end of Tuesday somewhere in that ‘Up to 30cm’ zone on our map.

We will also see some lake effect snow off the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay which will affect the Collingwood and Barrie area mainly during the morning hours. It appears to be quite weak and not as organized as the Lake Huron squall and it will weaken before noon. As such, the most we expect in this area is 15cm of snow mainly closer to the Georgian Bay shoreline. The actual city of Barrie should be closer to the 5-10cm range depending on how far inland the snow can get. The snow squalls off Lake Huron should weaken late Tuesday evening but could linger into the overnight and early Wednesday morning.

Please note as we say with every lake effect event, squalls are one of the hardest weather events to forecast due to how localized and intense they can be. This means one location could get 50cm while just down the road there is barely a flake to be seen. The best we can do is show which regions are most likely to see up to a certain amount based on the duration and intensity of the squall. It just depends on where this band sets up that determines who sees those significant amounts. Most locations within each zone shouldn’t come anywhere near the stated maximum which is the intended goal. We’d rather show you the potential so that you’re prepared for the worst.