Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Monday, January 24, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper combined with lake effect snow northeast of Georgian Bay will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to Southern Ontario on Monday. Thankfully, it won’t be anywhere near as strong as last Monday’s major snowstorm. The snow is expected to start early Monday morning off Georgian Bay as lake effect snow and localized squalls develop off Lake Huron, stretching across the Bruce Penisula and into regions just to the north of Parry Sound into North Bay. These squalls could be quite intense at times and have the potential to bring rapid snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility mainly during the morning and afternoon on Monday.

Later in the morning, widespread light to moderate snowfall associated with an Alberta Clipper will move in from Michigan. This will affect Southwestern Ontario first and slowly spread eastwards throughout the afternoon. This clipper will be fairly moisture starved so it will be very dependent on lake enhancement to deliver more than a few centimetres of snow further to the east. As such, there will be less of an impact on Eastern Ontario away from the lakes. Snowfall will come to an end by the late evening, but some lingering lake effect snow could continue into early Tuesday off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron

The heaviest totals will be found in the Bruce Penisula and regions northeast of Georgian Bay which could see 12-20cm (locally 25cm) of snow combined from the squalls and system. Much of Southwestern Ontario where the system will have more moisture to work with can expect general accumulation between 6-12cm. There’s also a zone north of Lake Ontario including Newmarket and Peterborough that could see locally close to 10cm thanks to lake enhancement off the northern shores of Lake Ontario.

The rest of Southern Ontario aside from the Ottawa Valley will pick up around 2-4cm of fresh snow with a few locations pushing close to 5-6cm depending on the exact strength of the system. As we mentioned, regions around the Quebec border in Eastern Ontario including Ottawa will likely pick up less than 2cm as the system will be quite disorganized by the time it reaches that area.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Monday, January 24, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An intense squall may affect regions northeast of Georgian Bay around the Parry Sound and North Bay region early Monday. Up to 30cm of snow is possible. In addition to the squalls, some accumulating snow is possible throughout Southern Ontario late Monday into Tuesday. A forecast for this will be issued on Sunday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Saturday, January 22 - Sunday, January 23, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A weak system is currently sliding across Southern Ontario bringing widespread snowfall to the region on Saturday afternoon. It won’t result in that much accumulation with a few centimetres of fresh snow at most. However, this system will help start the lake effect snow machine throughout the snowbelt region around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay late Saturday.

Scattered lake effect snow is expected to develop just after the dinner hour on Saturday which will give way to a more focused and intense snow squall overnight and into Sunday morning. Current indications suggest that this band will stretch across the Bruce Penisula and come inland off Georgian Bay around Meaford, Wasaga Beach and north of Barrie. This band isn’t expected to stay stationary for very long with maybe 2-4 hours of heavy snow in this area before it shifts southward.

By the late morning, the band will have drifted southward and start to affect the Kincardine and Saugeen Shores region off Lake Huron. A secondary area of lake effect snow may also develop along the southern shoreline of Georgian Bay affecting the Meaford and Collingwood area with additional snowfall. We expect that the lake effect activity will start to fizzle out through the afternoon, but some snow may still hug the shoreline of Lake Huron into the evening.

Between Saturday and Sunday, we’re looking at snowfall totals ranging from 8-16cm for much of Grey-Bruce counties and into Central Simcoe County to the northwest of Barrie. Do note that some locations may get locally up to 20cm within the strongest snow squall, but it will be extremely localized and most areas will be closer to 10cm. The rest of the snowbelt around Georgian Bay including Muskoka and northward into Northeastern Ontario can expect 4-8cm (locally up to 10cm) with most of the snow coming late Saturday and early Sunday.

The actual City of Barrie should escape the bulk of the snow from the lake effect activity although a few brief shots of snow as the bands shift around could deliver up to 5-10cm of snow to the city. Higher amounts are expected in the northern section of the city. We’re looking at less than 4cm for the rest of Southern Ontario mainly this afternoon and evening from the system snow sweeping across the region. More snow is possible on Monday with the threat of additional squalls along with some widespread snow late Monday into Tuesday. More details on that soon!

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Sunday, January 23, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and local snow squalls could affect Grey-Bruce counties starting late Saturday evening lasting into Sunday. There is uncertainty in exactly how much snow accumulation and exact locations impacted. More details on Saturday