EARLY PREVIEW: Southern Ontario To Be Impacted by Potential Winter Storm Between Wednesday and Friday

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As we mentioned a few days ago, there is the potential for a high-impact winter storm throughout Southern Ontario between Wednesday and Friday. There is still plenty of time for changes to occur so we're careful on being too specific in terms of snowfall totals and precipitation types.

With these events, we thought it would be helpful to break down what stage we are in when it comes to forecasting this storm. We constantly get questions about the impacts on certain cities or towns and it's just way too early to talk about that. Hopefully this will help with easing any confusion on what we can say at this point.

At Instant Weather, we aim to forecast impactful storms in 4 different stages. This begins 5-7 days in advance of a storm where we identify the potential impact it could have on Southern Ontario. We then post a brief 'heads up' update as we did a few days ago. However, we can't say much other than that a storm is possible and how severe the impacts could be on our region.

The focus of this update will be on the second stage outlined in the graphic. We are now around 3 days away from the start of the storm and models are starting to align on what impact it will have on Southern Ontario.

Based on the latest data, it appears that most of Southern Ontario will be on the cold side of this storm with the current track making this mainly a snow event. We could see some mixing especially further to the southeast along the American border from Niagara and out into Eastern Ontario. We are concerned about a swath of prolonged freezing rain associated with this storm, but the latest mode guidances have kept this well south of the border. If the system tracks further to the northwest we may have to talk about a fairly significant icing event for some areas.

There are some similarities between this upcoming storm and the blizzard that affected our region a few weeks ago. We aren't suggesting this will be as significant as the blizzard. That can't be ruled out given the intense totals that models are currently showing, but too early to say for sure. Although the track of this system is quite similar along with the hardest-hit regions.

The current track would result in a swath of heavy snow stretching from Windsor through London, around the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario. At this point, there is a fairly good chance for at least 20cm of snow in this region. It's important to note that this event differs in regards to the timeframe. We aren't expecting the bulk of the snow to fall within 6 hours as we saw a few weeks ago. It will come in multiple waves with steady snow over 2 to 3 days. This would give road crews more of a chance to clear the snow instead of getting it all at once. On the other hand, it would extend the impacts over several days with travel delays and school bus cancellations or closures.

There is still some disagreement between the models on the track of the system. Some point towards a more southeastern track with a focus on the GTA/Niagara region and Eastern Ontario. While others show a more northwestern track and a widespread snowstorm that affects almost all of Southern Ontario. This is why we aren't including a snowfall accumulation map because the track is still to be determined.

We are continuing to go over the latest data and hope to have our first preliminary forecast with accumulation maps on Monday.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Sunday, January 30, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Lake effect snow and potential snow squalls could affect the Bruce Penisula and into areas east of Georgian Bay on Sunday. However, there is low confidence in the exact areas affected and intensity. More details on Saturday.

Southern Ontario: Extreme Cold Outlook for Saturday, January 29, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Another cold night is expected across Southern Ontario with extremely cold temperatures to start off the day on Saturday. The coldest air will be found throughout Central and Eastern Ontario where the minimum temperature will come close to or slightly below -30°C. Factoring in the wind chill, it will feel well into the -30s and perhaps even close to -40°C in some areas.

This cold air won’t spare much of our region with the temperature below -20°C all the way through Southwestern Ontario and around the GTA and the wind chill making it feel near -30°C. Those around the Lake Huron shoreline and the Bruce Penisula will be slightly milder between -16 and-22 °C. The only exception to this will be extreme Southwestern Ontario such as Windsor along with the Niagara region which will range from -12 to -18°C and feel into the low to mid -20s.

Temperatures will improve late in the day reaching a high between -8 to -15°C, but the cold air will return for one more night into Sunday morning.

Please be sure to dress accordingly if you plan on being outside for an extended period of time. Frostbite and other cold-related dangers can become life-threatening in a matter of minutes with temperatures this cold! And please don’t forget about your furry friends. If it’s too cold for you, it’s too cold for them! Bring them inside or find a way to keep them warm. Stay safe and warm!

Another Weekend, Another Winter Storm

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Valid: SAT, JAN 29, 2022

What comes after 5 days of work???? A winter storm. PEI is in the bullseye for yet another large blast of winter weather and once again, it is on a Saturday. We will be looking at significant snow, and some areas of the province will be looking at ice pellets, freezing rain and rain on the tail end of the system.

TIMING:

Friday night into early Saturday morning, we will see a light dusting across the province. The ‘real’ system starts impacting the entire province shortly after daybreak on Saturday. The heaviest bands of snow will arrive during the afternoon hours and by evening, the majority of the snow from this system will be down across the Island.

We should see a brief change over from snow to sleet in the evening on Saturday and Queens county could also see a little bit of freezing rain. Kings County can expect to see the snow change over to sleet and then to rain by early evening, and the rain may push across to Queens and Prince counties briefly around midnight Saturday.

TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PROVINCE:

The below accumulations are what we can expect to see on Saturday:

SNOWFALL

Prince County – 20-30 cm (higher accumulations closer to Queens County)

Queens County – 30-40 cm

Kings County – 20-30 cm (areas around Wood Island may only see 15-20cm)

RAINFALL

Prince County – 1-5mm

Queens County – 1-5 mm

Kings County – 5-10mm

WIND: Winds will be a factor with this system. It is a fairly fast moving system and what that means is the higher wind gusts will be over a shorter period of time. Winds will be from the North / Northeast and will gradually increase throughout Saturday morning and should start diminishing late Saturday night. The stronger winds will occur between 2pm and 8pm Saturday. Overall, wind should be 40-60 km/h with gusts of 70-90 km/h during the late afternoon hours. Prince County could see some wind gusts reaching close to 100km/h near supper time on Saturday.

TEMPERATURE: We should be starting the day on Saturday with temperatures around the -5 to -10 C range and as the day progresses we will see those temperatures rise above freezing to around 2-4 C by Saturday evening and then temperatures will again decrease to -5 to -10 C area by noon time on Sunday.

Any shift in the front could vary the precipitation types and quantities. We will continue to monitor this system and keep you updated with any significant changes.

Winds and snow will cause white out and hazardous driving conditions during Saturday. Be prepared for power outages. Please exercise caution if you are on the roads. Please stay home unless absolutely necessary. Stranded vehicles are a hazard to those in them as well as emergency and road crews. If you do not need to drive, stay home and eat chips. Always adhere to the recommendations of the RCMP and PEI Public Safety.

As always, be safe and let us know what you are experiencing in your areas.

Storm chip Probability: 100%

IWPE Team (Mike S, Harry S)