‘Snow Day’ Forecast: School Buses Will Likely Be Cancelled Across Central and Southwestern Ontario on Tuesday Due to Intense Snow Squalls
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UPDATE
Confidence is growing in widespread school bus cancellations across Central and Southwestern Ontario. Intense snow squalls have developed resulting in an expansive snow squall warning from Environment Canada.
We have increased the chances for Muskoka due to expected significant snowfall of up to 50cm by morning. Other areas further inland from Lake Huron including Kitchener, Guelph and York Region have been added to the snow squall warning. We have pumped those regions up to a 50% chance.
Earlier update
Anticipate intense snow squall activity tonight into Tuesday morning around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, resulting in rapid snowfall accumulation and blizzard-like conditions in affected regions.
Significant travel disruptions are expected, prompting Environment Canada to issue a snow squall warning advising, 'Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.'
Given this, it's highly likely that school boards will opt to cancel school buses on Tuesday across a broad swath of Central and Southwestern Ontario, with the potential for some school closures.
The highest likelihood of a 'snow day' extends from Grey-Bruce to Simcoe County, where there's a 90% chance of school bus cancellations. Ongoing snow squalls throughout the morning will create challenging travel conditions, possibly leading to road closures.
In Muskoka and Kawartha Lakes, there's a 75% chance, although confidence is lower as the most severe conditions tomorrow morning are expected closer to the southeastern shoreline of Georgian Bay.
A 75% chance of school bus cancellations is also projected for the Goderich and Listowel area, primarily due to Environment Canada currently having a watch in effect for those regions. If upgraded to a warning by evening, the likelihood may increase to 90%.
The probability of a snow day diminishes further from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Peterborough, Northern Durham, York, Dufferin, Wellington, K/W, and areas north of London face a 25-50% chance, as squalls could extend far inland under conducive conditions, resulting in reduced visibility and potential bus cancellations.
Eastern Ontario, along with the GTA and Deep Southwestern Ontario, has less than a 10% chance of a snow day.
Stay tuned for our finalized forecast this evening!
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
