‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Widespread Snowfall Could Lead to School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday
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Heavy snowfall is anticipated to blanket Southern Ontario from Monday evening into Tuesday, leading Environment Canada to issue several weather alerts, including winter travel advisories and snow squall warnings.
By Tuesday morning, snow accumulations are expected to vary widely, with 5 to 10cm forecasted in general. However, areas along the southern shores of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay might see 10 to 20cm due to lake-effect snow and squalls developing tonight.
Although the expected snowfall totals are usually not significant enough to cause school bus cancellations, strong wind gusts accompanying the snow are a concern. These winds are likely to cause blowing snow and reduced visibility, with the most severe conditions predicted for early Tuesday morning, coinciding with the time for deciding on school bus cancellations.
The area south of Georgian Bay, including Meaford and Collingwood regions, stands a 90% chance of experiencing a ‘snow day’ due to the likelihood of the highest snowfall totals. In contrast, Central Ontario and regions along the Lake Huron shoreline have a 50-75% chance of a snow day.
The variability in snowfall impacts across regions makes predicting school bus cancellations challenging. Specifically, the Barrie and Owen Sound area, under a snow squall warning for 10-20cm of snow, has a 75% chance of cancellations.
The Bancroft and Barry’s Bay region also has a strong possibility (75%) of a snow day. The latest models suggest they might receive slightly higher snowfall (up to 15cm) compared to nearby areas. The local school boards are also known to be particularly sensitive to weather conditions.
Further away from the lakes, the likelihood of a snow day diminishes, especially in urban areas like the GTA. Although widespread cancellations are unlikely, localized cancellations due to road conditions cannot be completely discounted.
There remains a chance, albeit small, that this snowfall event could exceed expectations, leading to more widespread cancellations. As a result, every region has at least a 5% chance of experiencing a snow day on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
