ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 8, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.
GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 8, 2023
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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in Northwestern Ontario during the afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. Isolated storms are expected to develop stretching from Fort Frances through Dryden and into Far Northwestern Ontario. These discreet cells will have the potential to bring severe threats including hail up to the size of ping pong balls, 100 km/h wind gusts and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, August 7, 2023
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Starting early Monday afternoon, scattered thunderstorm activity could bring the risk of severe weather to parts of Southern Ontario. The Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario regions are particularly susceptible to storm development, with potential threats including heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and small hail.
A slight risk of severe weather is in place for the Niagara region, extending into Eastern Ontario along the Lake Ontario shoreline, including areas like Peterborough and Kingston. The primary concerns in these areas are hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts reaching 90-100 km/h. Additionally, although unlikely, an isolated tornado can't be entirely ruled out.
For the rest of Eastern Ontario and along the Golden Horseshoe, there is an isolated severe threat. However, storm development further to the west is more questionable, potentially limiting the actual impact in these areas.
Moreover, heavy rainfall will be a significant concern with these storms, potentially leading to localized flooding. For more detailed information on the flooding threat, please refer to our dedicated rainfall forecast available here:
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, August 7, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Monday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, August 7, 2023
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Beginning early Monday morning and persisting throughout the day, Southern Ontario is expected to be impacted by heavy rainfall. The rainfall could be accompanied by embedded thunderstorms, with most of these storms likely to remain non-severe. However, there are indications that a few of these storms could escalate to marginally severe levels during the afternoon and evening.
The Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario regions are particularly favourable for storm development that could result in heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and small hail. The primary concern lies in the potential for flash flooding, as these storms may be persistent and bring extensive rainfall totals exceeding 100mm. Additionally, hail up to the size of nickels and wind gusts reaching 80-90 km/h are also possible threats. Although the tornado risk is expected to be minimal, it can't be entirely ruled out.
The forecast does come with some uncertainty regarding storm development later in the day, which will significantly influence the actual threat to our region. Therefore, it's essential to keep a close eye on our updated forecast, which will be released Sunday evening.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, August 6, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Sunday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, August 6, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Sunday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, August 5, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Saturday.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, August 5, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Saturday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, August 4, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Friday.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, August 4, 2023
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Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Friday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 3, 2023
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Central and Eastern Ontario are in the bullseye for a strong risk of severe weather on Thursday. Isolated supercells are anticipated to develop somewhere in the vicinity of North Bay, extending into Algonquin Park during the early afternoon. These storms are projected to track southeastward, impacting regions such as Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, and the Ottawa Valley later in the afternoon and early evening.
As time progresses, a transition from discrete storms to a more consolidated cluster is expected. Storm threats will include hail up to the size of golf balls and destructive wind gusts, potentially reaching 110 km/h. With the environment favouring rotating storms, there is a possibility of one or two tornadoes occurring.
The storm threat will persist as it reaches the Brockville and Kingston region, with the mature line of storms expected to affect these areas around 8-10 PM. During this time, the primary concern will shift to strong wind gusts, though tornadoes will still be possible.
Another risk zone has our focus around the Lake Huron shoreline, where isolated storms may develop over the lake during the late afternoon. These storms could subsequently track onshore, carrying the risk of severe weather, including hail up to the size of ping pong balls, 100 km/h wind gusts, and the potential for one or two tornadoes. However, this area has a lower level of confidence in its forecast, as storm development may not occur or may happen later than expected.
In the extreme southern portion of Northeastern Ontario, including North Bay, a strong severe risk is in place. Storms are projected to initiate here before tracking into Eastern Ontario during the early afternoon hours. A slight severe risk also extends into Sudbury and along the Georgian Bay shoreline, where a line of storms may form before traversing over Lake Huron. Both of these areas carry a favourable environment for large hail, strong wind gusts, and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 3, 2023
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In the extreme southern portion of Northeastern Ontario, including North Bay, a strong severe risk is in place. Storms are projected to initiate here before tracking into Eastern Ontario during the early afternoon hours. A slight severe risk also extends into Sudbury and along the Georgian Bay shoreline, where a line of storms may form before traversing over Lake Huron. Both of these areas carry a favourable environment for large hail, strong wind gusts, and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, August 3, 2023
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Weather conditions in Southern Ontario are set to take a potentially severe turn on Thursday, with a strong threat of severe weather expected for Central and Eastern Ontario. Current model guidance suggests the development of an explosive weather environment stretching from Muskoka to the Ottawa Valley, with possible storm initiation during the afternoon and early evening.
However, uncertainties linger about the precise location and timing of these storms. While Central Ontario may experience limited storm activity, confidence is higher for the Ottawa Valley, where a few supercells could form, bringing threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall.
Of particular concern is the tornado risk, which could be strong with these storms. Regions such as Pembroke through Renfrew and into the Ottawa area have the highest tornado risk. The potential for one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out in these areas.
Moving southward, storm activity is also possible over Lake Huron, extending into areas east of the lake, including Kincardine and Goderich. While these storms may not have as favourable environmental conditions, they could still reach marginally severe levels. An isolated tornado risk also exists in this region. We will closely monitor the evolving environment, and based on the data, we may need to expand the 'slight' risk to encompass this area.
We will issue an updated forecast late Wednesday evening once we have thoroughly assessed the latest data.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 2, 2023
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As Wednesday evening approaches, isolated thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. The time frame for these storms is from 7 PM to 12 AM. These storms will then track across the Bruce Peninsula and into the Simcoe County and Muskoka region.
While the overall severe threat is expected to be limited due to the later timing of the storms, there is the potential for a few of them to reach marginally severe levels. Within these storms, we could experience wind gusts of up to 90 km/h, hail up to the size of nickels, and heavy rainfall.
One aspect that warrants attention is an isolated tornado risk. Though not a significant concern, models indicate that any storms developing in this area could pose a slight tornado risk.
Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️
When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:
Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.
Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.
Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.
We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.
Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.
The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.
Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.
In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.
For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, August 2, 2023
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Widespread thunderstorms are on the horizon for much of Northern Ontario on Wednesday, bringing with them the potential for severe weather. A potent environment will set the stage for any storms that develop to become severe, with threats including hail up to the size of golf balls, 100 km/h wind gusts, and flash flooding. The timeline for storms will span from the afternoon into the evening hours, with the peak intensity expected between 4 PM and 9 PM.
In the central part of Northern Ontario, just north of Thunder Bay, we have a 'strong' risk forecasted due to the threat of supercells. These supercells may produce very large hail, strong wind gusts, and the possibility of an isolated tornado. The tornado risk is strongest in Northeastern Ontario near the Quebec border, where we could see one or two tornadoes. However, the hail and wind threats in this area are somewhat lower, leading to a 'slight' risk classification.
Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️
When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:
Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.
Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.
Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.
We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.
Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.
The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.
Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.
In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.
For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 1, 2023
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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE WHICH WILL BE EASIER TO READ.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.
Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️
When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:
Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.
Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.
Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.
We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.
Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.
The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.
Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.
In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.
For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, August 1, 2023
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A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop over Manitoba during the early morning hours on Tuesday. This line will cross into Northwestern Ontario by the late morning or early afternoon. Although the environment is quite weak this early in the day, we belive the line could feature marginally severe storms. The main threats will be 90 km/h wind gusts, hail up to the size of quarters and heavy rainfall.
Storms will move south of the border by the late afternoon.
Decoding Thunderstorm Forecasts: Threats Over Probability ⚡️🌩️
When it comes to thunderstorm forecasts, there are two distinct approaches:
Forecasting the probability of thunderstorms occurring based on storm development.
Forecasting the potential thunderstorm threats based on the environment.
Both methods have their merits, but at Instant Weather, we prioritize focusing on the threats rather than just the probability. After all, it's the possible threats that pose a real danger to you.
We achieve this by carefully evaluating the latest model data and assessing the level of threat posed by each type should storms develop in a particular region. This includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding.
Our overall severe risk classification comprises 6 categories: non-severe, isolated, slight, strong, significant, and extreme. The final category is determined based on the maximum threat level among all the individual threat types.
The graphic above highlights the risk levels of each threat type and their correlation with the overall severe risk. Minor regional differences exist between Ontario and the Prairies; for example, tennis ball-sized hail is classified as a 'strong' risk in the Prairies, while in Ontario, it's considered 'significant'. This variation results from the higher frequency of large hail occurrences in the Prairies compared to Ontario.
Please note that our forecast map doesn’t focus on probabilities, so we don't guarantee storms for a specific region.
In fact, most locations within a region may not experience a single storm. The localized nature of storm development makes it challenging to predict. Instead, we aim to inform you about the potential threats IF storms develop in a given area, based on the surrounding environment.
For a comprehensive understanding of how widespread an event could be and the potential for a ‘bust’, we encourage you to read the entire forecast discussion.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, July 31, 2023
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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE WHICH WILL BE EASIER TO READ.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Monday.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, July 31, 2023
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NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE WHICH WILL BE EASIER TO READ.
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Monday.
