'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely on Monday Around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay
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Intense snow squalls continue to pound the snowbelt regions surrounding Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, persisting through the weekend and expected to last into Monday. Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall warnings, forecasting an additional 30 to 50 cm of snow by Tuesday.
Given these conditions, it seems highly likely that many school boards in the hardest-hit areas will cancel buses on Monday morning. Travel will remain hazardous throughout the day, making it nearly impossible to operate school buses safely.
The highest confidence for cancellations lies along the Eastern Lake Huron and Southern Georgian Bay shorelines, affecting boards like AMDSB (Goderich and Exeter) and BWDSB (Kincardine and Meaford). In these regions, there is a 90% chance of a "snow day" on Monday.
For Trillium (Muskoka), there’s also a 90% likelihood of cancellations. While no significant additional snowfall is expected overnight, the extensive cleanup from previous snowfalls and the continued closure of the major highway in the region will likely make bus travel unfeasible.
UPDATE (6:15 PM): Trillium Lakelands DSB has announced that schools in the Muskoka region will be closed on Monday.
Similarly, NNDSB (Parry Sound) and Trillium (Haliburton) face potential cancellations, but with lower probabilities of 50% and 25%, respectively, as these areas were not as severely impacted.
Surrounding areas, including TVDSB (Middlesex), AMDSB (Stratford and Listowel), BWDSB (Southampton, Owen Sound, and Hanover), and the "West" weather zone for Simcoe County, have a 75% chance of seeing buses canceled due to lingering squall activity and ongoing poor travel conditions.
Outside the core snowbelt regions, the likelihood of cancellations decreases significantly. For the "North" and "Central" weather zones in Simcoe County, there’s a 50/50 chance of a snow day. While the brunt of the lake-effect snow is expected to remain closer to Georgian Bay, Environment Canada’s snow squall warnings could still prompt precautionary cancellations.
The chances are also 50/50 in London and Oxford County, where snow squall activity is less certain to intensify enough to justify cancellations. Urban boards like these often have higher thresholds for cancellations compared to rural regions.
For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely, as the worst conditions are expected to remain confined to the typical snowbelt areas.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
