'Snow Day' Forecast: Heavy Snow on Wednesday May Cancel Some School Buses in Southern Ontario
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An Alberta Clipper is set to move into Southern Ontario early Wednesday, bringing the potential for 20-30 cm of snow in some areas. Snow squalls will also persist northeast of Georgian Bay, as well as near Lakes Erie and Ontario, during the morning hours.
The anticipated impact on Wednesday morning’s commute, combined with potential disruptions to the afternoon commute, will likely lead some school boards to cancel school buses. While there is still some uncertainty about how widespread these cancellations will be, certain areas have a higher probability of being affected.
There is a 90% chance of a “snow day” for the Bruce Peninsula and areas northeast of Georgian Bay. This includes the entire Near North District School Board (NNDSB), which is known to be highly cautious regarding weather conditions. The expected snow squalls in these areas are likely to meet the criteria for bus cancellations.
For the rest of Central Ontario, parts of Eastern Ontario, and rural areas of Southwestern Ontario, the probability of school bus cancellations ranges from 50% to 75%. Confidence is slightly lower in these regions because much of the snow is expected to fall after morning cancellation decisions are made. Additionally, Environment Canada has gone with winter travel advisories, which may not carry enough weight for some school boards to cancel buses proactively.
The likelihood of cancellations increases in areas forecasted to experience snow squalls or where blowing snow advisories are in effect. This includes regions along the shorelines of Lakes Huron, Ontario, and Erie, where reduced visibility and challenging travel conditions are expected.
In contrast, urban school boards in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are unlikely to cancel buses, as the forecasted conditions are not expected to meet the higher thresholds typically required for urban cancellations. We’ve assigned a slim 5-10% chance to account for the possibility of an unexpected decision by one of the boards, but this remains highly improbable.
Similarly, Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Sarnia, Windsor, and Chatham—is unlikely to see school bus cancellations, as these areas are forecasted to receive less than 5 cm of snow from this system. Conditions there are not expected to be severe enough to warrant disruptions.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
