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A dangerous combination of strong snow squalls and bitterly cold temperatures is expected to impact areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting this evening and continuing into Monday.

Environment Canada has already issued snow squall warnings for regions along the Lake Huron shoreline, highlighting the potential for significant snowfall accumulations. Some areas could see totals ranging from 30 to 60 cm by the end of the event.

This combination of heavy snow and extreme cold will create hazardous driving conditions, making travel dangerous and potentially life-threatening. With these factors in play, it’s highly likely that school buses will be cancelled across many parts of Southern Ontario on Monday.

Even areas not expecting snow squall activity could face cancellations due to the cold alone. Environment Canada has warned of wind chills in the -30s tonight and into Monday morning, which could be enough to keep buses off the roads.

That said, it’s not guaranteed. Many school boards have specific thresholds for cancellations, typically requiring air temperatures of -30°C or wind chills of -40°C or colder to call off transportation.

Monday morning’s conditions may fall just short of these criteria, particularly in Central and Eastern Ontario. Given the current data, we estimate about a 50/50 chance of school bus cancellations in those regions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)
Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)
Near North District School Board (North Bay)
Rainbow District School Board
Algoma District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)
STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & Haliburton)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound & East Parry Sound)
Tri-Board (North Hastings)
Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Waterloo Region District School Board
District School Board of Niagara (North Region)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL North)
Tri-Board (Central Hastings & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (City of London)
District School Board of Niagara (South Region)
STWDSTS (Guelph)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (CKL South)
Tri-Board (Belleville, Central L&A & South Frontenac)
Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.